The Obvious Pick to Win the Final Four is....?

Those UCONN Huskies are the REAL DEAL Hey , And then there were FOUR! It is time to preview both Final Four games and determine our winners. Let the analysis begin!  #9 Florida Atlantic vs #5 San Diego State  Based on San Diego State’s recent tournament games, I expect this one to come down to the final minute. We know that San Diego State is going to play slow and methodical on offense and tough controlled defense. The difference will come down to which team can make more shots. It sounds simple but oftentimes in this tournament that’s the difference maker (especially three-point shooting). That gives the edge to Florida Atlantic, who is the stronger of the two teams in terms of their ability to make threes. San Diego State seems to be punching above their weight in terms of offensive ability – they are only ranked 74th on Ken Pom in adjusted offensive efficiency. They have made up for this by hitting tough shot after tough shot, especially in crunch time. Against Creighton the Aztecs shot 7/11 from the field over the final 7 minutes and it’s that timely shooting that has helped them survive and advance. I think their timely shooting will finally falter vs Florida Atlantic. Shooting 63% from the field over the final 7 minutes of a game is extremely unrealistic to duplicate. Furthermore, Florida Atlantic has a plethora of three point shooting options to help build a lead. I will take Florida Atlantic to win in a tight one.   #5 Miami vs #4 UCONN  This game will come down to defense. In Miami’s prior games, despite playing against solid defensive teams they have been able to score at will. UCONN, which currently ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, will be the team standing in the way of the dominant Hurricanes offense. Personally, I don’t think Miami has much of a chance in this game. Texas had the Canes beat and that was minus the Longhorns superb big man Dylan Disu. Disu’s absence could be felt, with Miami’s big man Norchad Omier putting in a strong performance. However, UCONN will have no injury concerns heading into this matchup and they have better rebounding than Texas. Combine that with elite guard play in Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson Jr. and picking the Huskies seems the obvious choice. Furthermore, UCONN has been on an absolute tear in the tournament winning every game by double digits. Miami’s elite guards MIGHT be able to keep it close, and elite guard play CAN win you games in the tournament. But, I don’t see Miami being able to hang with the Huskies over the entire game. I will take Connecticut to advance to the Championship game. A disclaimer– I will get hesitant on the UCONN hype train if it seems like the whole world is on the Huskies. It seems like every time the public is all in on a team, that team has lost (see Duke and Kansas State). It is generally good practice to fade the public, and I do think it is likely the public goes all in on the Huskies. If the headlines start to come out about how “UCONN will easily win the game” or “Almost all bets are on UCONN to win” then that is the sign to fade the Huskies. Best regards, Olin G. Head of Research at Juicy Wagers       JuicyWagers.com is a publisher and the information provided through its products and services are for informational purposes only. To the extent any such information is deemed to be advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the needs of any specific person. JuicyWagers.com and its affiliates are not responsible for any actions taken by a user of their published information. Headley Investment Analysis, Inc., 201 West Vine Street, Lexington, Kentucky 40507, United States You may [unsubscribe]( or [change your contact details]( at any time.