How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?

Plus: Before Vaccines, Variolation Was Seriously Trendy [] To ensure delivery of your JSTOR Daily please add daily@jstor.org to your address book. [] Weekly Digest [Web Version](35832/ct0_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] 35832/ct1_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF [] [How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?](35832/ct1_1/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] By James Tapper [] By the time you finish this story, you'll have predicted the future dozens of times. You've already guessed from the headline what it's about and whether you'll enjoy it. These opening words help you judge whether the rest is worth bothering with. And if you expect it will mention the oracle of Delphi, Nancy Reagan's astrologer, and chimpanzees playing darts, you've already got three things right. We are all forecasters. We all want to know what is going to happen next. Will I get COVID-19? Will I have a job in three months' time? Will the shops have what I need? Although we regularly predict the outcomes of questions like these, we are often not very good at doing so. [] [Read More](35832/ct1_2/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [] [] [The Newport Rebels and Jazz as Protest](35832/ct2_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [The Newport Rebels and Jazz as Protest](35832/ct2_1/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] By Ashawnta Jackson [] In 1960 a group of jazz musicians organized an alternative to the Newport Jazz Festival, which they saw as too pop and too white. [Read more...](35832/ct2_2/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [] 35832/ct3_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF [] [The New Siberians](35832/ct3_1/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] By Matthew Wills [] As heat waves induced by climate change roil the Arctic Circle, Siberians are articulating a distinct identity. [Read more...](35832/ct3_2/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [] [] [Is Political Backlash Real?](35832/ct4_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [Is Political Backlash Real?](35832/ct4_1/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] By Livia Gershon [] Many people assume that strong movements for minority rights provoke backlash at the polls. But some scholars have doubts. [Read more...](35832/ct4_2/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] ADVERTISEMENT [] [If you love our stories, become a JSTOR Daily member. Sign up here.](35832/ct5_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [] [The Satanic Foreign Film That Was Banned in the U.S.](35832/ct6_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [The Satanic Foreign Film That Was Banned in the U.S.](35832/ct6_1/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] By Kristin Hunt [] Benjamin Christensen's Häxan was part documentary and part fantasy—and considered too disturbing for public viewing. [Read more...](35832/ct6_2/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [] [Before Vaccines, Variolation Was Seriously Trendy](35832/ct7_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [Before Vaccines, Variolation Was Seriously Trendy](35832/ct7_1/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] By Carly Silver [] Lady Mary Wortley Montagu is credited with popularizing variolation among the aristocracy in England. [Read more...](35832/ct7_2/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [] 35832/ct8_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF [] [How Trading Card Collectors Have Fought Stereotypes](35832/ct8_1/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] By Ashawnta Jackson [] By making what may have been unseen visible, trading cards have often provided an opening into larger conversations on race, gender, and representation. [Read more...](35832/ct8_2/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) [] [] Contact Us 101 Greenwich Street, New York, NY 10006, USA [daily.jstor.org](35832/ct9_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) | daily@jstor.org | [@JSTOR_Daily](35832/ct10_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) | [Facebook](35832/ct11_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF) ©2004-2020 ITHAKA. All Rights Reserved. JSTOR®, the JSTOR logo, and ITHAKA® are registered trademarks of ITHAKA. Interested in advertising with JSTOR Daily? [Contact us](35832/ct12_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF). If you prefer not to receive email messages from JSTOR Daily in the future, you may [unsubscribe here](35832/ct13_0/1?sid=TV2%3AeSf5ZNYGF).