📈 One Hidden Factor Causes 71% Of All Stock Market Gains—Find Out What It Is 🕵️

[Image] 📈 One Hidden Factor Causes 71% Of All Stock Market Gains — Find Out What It Is 🕵️ Yesterday, I talked about two pieces of major economic data getting released this week—the ISM Manufacturing Index and the U.S. jobs report. Now, the wait is over. We have those reports. The [ISM data]( showed that Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 in November. New orders continued to decline and factory employment has been decreasing as hiring slows down. Meanwhile, the [U.S. jobs report]( was similarly bearish for the markets. It showed slowing demand in the labor market with job openings sliding to 8.73 million in October (down from 9.35 million openings in September and 10.47 million in the prior year). You might be wondering why I put so much emphasis on the importance of these economic reports… Well, a recent market study explains the edge that macro trading can provide better than I ever could… Image courtesy of [Financial Times]( Believe Buzz! Keep reading and I’ll show you what I’m talking about… Macro Events Account for 71% of All Stock Market Gains Over the Past 6 Decades If you’ve ever doubted the profit-making potential of following major economic reports, it’s time to pay attention… A [brand-new research paper]( Macroeconomic Announcement Premium by Hengjie Ai, Ravi Bansal, and Hongye Guo—is shedding fresh light on just how valuable macro trading can be. Through [their study]( of historical market data, they determined that "Since 1961, the 44 days a year where there has been major economic news account for over 71% of aggregate equity market returns." Let’s put this in perspective… Since 1961, there have been roughly 15,625 trading days. Out of those, 44 days per year (approximately 2,728 days total) included major economic reports. And those 2,728 days—which accounted for just 17% of the total trading days since—made up a staggering 71% of the stock market’s total returns over the past 62 years. Macroeconomic Announcement Premium table—courtesy of [Financial Times]( In other words, you could’ve theoretically sat on the sidelines for 83% of the stock market’s action over the past six decades and still been there to trade on the most rip-roaring days. That said, as evidenced by the price action over the last few days, it’s not only bullish setups that appear following major economic reports. Some beautiful overnight fades and put-buying opportunities can arise amid economic data as well. WARNING: Don’t be a perma-bull or perma-bear! Doing so will get you caught flat-footed whenever the market inevitably starts going in the opposite direction… To be a fully-formed, flexible trader—you must take advantage of both the upside and the downside of market sentiment. (It would be fascinating to see what % of stock market declines occurred around economic data, but we’ll have to wait for another report for that.) 13 Major Economic Reports To Put On Your Calendar So, how can you keep track of all the meaningful economic data coming down the pipe? Here are thirteen unignorable economic reports to keep on your calendar: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report: Released monthly, it provides data on the number of jobs added or lost in the U.S. economy, excluding farm workers and certain other job classifications. Unemployment Rate: Released alongside the NFP, it measures the % of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. Consumer Price Index (CPI): A monthly report that measures changes in the price of consumer goods and services. Producer Price Index (PPI): Released monthly, it measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. Retail Sales: A monthly measurement of all receipts from stores. It's a primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The broadest measure of economic activity, it represents the total value of all goods and services produced over a specific period. It's released quarterly. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE): Part of the monthly Personal Income and Outlays report, it measures price changes in consumer goods and services. Durable Goods Orders: A monthly report that measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for goods that are meant to last at least three years. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meetings: While not a report per se, the meetings, announcements, and subsequent speeches from FOMC members about monetary policy and interest rate decisions are major market movers. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI): Released monthly, it gauges the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy (and their financial situation). ISM Manufacturing Index: Released yesterday, this monthly report measures the health of the manufacturing sector. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index: Similar to the Manufacturing Index, but for the services sector. Housing Market Reports: Including New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, Building Permits, and Housing Starts. These reports are released monthly and give insight into the health of the housing market. Closing Thoughts If you fail to keep track of macro data, you’ll be trading a market that’s digesting information you don’t even know exists. This could lead to some missed wins or, worse, some big losses. But by simply following these crucial economic reports, you might discover five-star trading opportunities that you wouldn’t have found otherwise. As always… Stay Street Smart, Jeff Zananiri P.S. 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