[Image] ð¯ Retail Rally: How I Predicted TGTâs Double-Digit Surge ð On Tuesday, I told you that there was a good chance that Target Inc. (NYSE: TGT) would soar following its earnings report. And sure enough ⦠I was right. TGT jumped more than 17% yesterday, from $110.79 to over $130. Meanwhile, the 11/17/23 $130 calls were up a staggering 838% at the time of writing. Youâre probably wondering how I predicted such a remarkable move. But you donât need to wonder any longer. Keep reading and Iâll show you⦠Itâs All About The Big Picture Iâve said it before and Iâll say it again â trading is all about understanding the big picture. And going into this week of retail earnings, the big picture for retail stores was looking bleak. This year, weâve heard story after story about retail theft affecting the earnings of big box stores like TGT and Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT). While this is a major negative factor affecting these companies, itâs not as bad as the charts were suggesting going into this week. Hereâs the thing⦠The market tends to continually punish companies that are facing mid-term headwinds. When a stock goes out of favor with institutions, the share price gets obliterated. But sometimes, this is an overreaction â which is exactly what happened with TGT. I knew that retail stores were in a less-than-ideal environment for their business model, but they didnât deserve to be as sold-off as they had been before this week. TGT stood out to me as a prime candidate to break out of its downtrend because the chart was way oversold. I knew that even mildly positive earnings could send the stock surging simply due to the big picture of the chart. This is what the TGT daily chart looked like heading into yesterdayâs earnings report: TGT YTD daily chart from Tuesday, November 14 â courtesy of [StocksToTrade.com]( It may seem counterintuitive to be bullish on such a terrible-looking chart, but this is one of the things that separates the worldâs greatest traders from the 90% who fail⦠Great traders see the big picture, beyond the ticks and candles in the chart, and form a plan to take advantage of it. Now, look at what happened to the TGT chart yesterday⦠TGT YTD daily chart from Wednesday, November 15 â courtesy of [StocksToTrade.com]( Letâs dive further into how I predicted this⦠âFull Ponzi Bull Modeâ (And What It Means for Your Trading) When the stock market goes âfull ponzi bull mode,â as I like to call it, Wall Street looks for the worst names to rally the hardest. The quality growth stocks â like âThe Magnificent Sevenâ â start slowing down, even fading, as the oversold companies start ripping to the upside. Iâve seen this happen so many times over my 25-year trading career â I know the big picture when I see it. This is why I loved TGT for this earnings play, it checked all of these boxes. That said, if you didnât make this trade yesterday, donât chase this retail strength further. These kinds of reversal swings are usually short-lived, often single-day surges. And playing these moves is an example of contrarian trading â taking positions that go against prevailing market sentiment. If you believe that the market has overreacted to news or events, leading to mispriced stocks, you can potentially exploit that to your advantage. You can do try to do this by buying stocks (or calls) when they are out of favor and selling (or buying puts) when they are overly hyped⦠â¦which is exactly what I suggested doing with TGT. I want you to start relying on your analysis, research, and judgment to identify opportunities that others may have overlooked. Do that and you just might discover the next 17% single-day earnings surge entirely on your own. WARNING: If youâre only following the market trend, youâll eventually get caught at the end of the pattern and lose money. If a stock is overbought, consider short plays. And if a stock is oversold (like TGT), donât sleep on calls. Avoid ignoring the other side of the trade. Some of the greatest trades of all time have been contrarian in nature. Closing Thoughts If you missed this TGT trade, donât beat yourself up. Earnings plays are always risky. They donât fit into everyoneâs risk tolerance. Remember that trading opportunities are like buses â thereâs always another one coming. And knowing this, you should take to heart what Iâve taught you today and consider how you can try to identify similar setups in the future. As always⦠Stay Street Smart, Jeff Zananiri P.S. INSIDER ACTIVITY ALERT! Ben Sturgill just caught wind of some âsmart moneyâ insiders building a massive position⦠Even better, Benâs hosting a live briefing TOMORROW, November 17 at 8 a.m. EST to show you how you can start using âsmart moneyâ signals to find great trade ideas with explosive potential! What are you waiting for?! [Click here to RESERVE YOUR SPOT NOW!](
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