Tuesday Market Outlook: November 14, 2023

[Image] Tuesday Market Outlook: November 14, 2023 Get ready for some real market movement this week, because if the last few weeks were any indication … we're in for a rollercoaster ride. The entire market has been on fire recently, fueled by the belief that inflation has been tamed and that the Federal Reserve's rate hikes are a thing of the past. But while optimism has been the flavor of the day, with the Nasdaq climbing nearly 10% from its October lows, we should buckle up. A series of upcoming economic indicators could send some jolts through the markets, possibly challenging the recent bullish run. With that in mind, let’s get to my Tuesday Market Outlook. Here’s what I’m seeing this week… Tech Surging Into the CPI Report First, let’s talk numbers. The Nasdaq's near-vertical ascent could face a reality check. Remember, a "meaningful pullback" after such a steep rise wouldn't just be a blip on the radar—it would need to be at least a 2% drop. That might not sound like a lot, but on the back of a 10% gain, it could be enough to make the entire market clam up. The market's recent optimism is based on the idea that we've turned a corner on inflation. But let's not forget that the Federal Reserve has been cautious in its communications. The Fed officials have consistently remarked since the last FOMC meeting that they're not ready to declare victory over inflation just yet. This Tuesday, all eyes will be on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. This critical data could either reinforce the current bull run or give investors pause, tempering the recent enthusiasm with a dose of cold, hard stats. If CPI data suggests inflation isn't cooling off as hoped, those who've been riding the wave of market gains might start having second thoughts. This could result in a pullback, as traders reassess their long positions in a market that's been a tad too eager to price in good news. Retail Sales Take Center Stage After the CPI dust settles, the focus will quickly switch to retail sales. This is where the rubber meets the road for consumer spending, a significant driver of the economy. Retail figures will shed light on whether the American consumer is still opening their wallet despite the economic headwinds we've been facing. And speaking of retail, we have some headline earnings on the horizon. Target Inc. (NYSE: TGT) is one of the big names to report this week, and its story is a bit different from the broader market. TGT YTD daily chart — courtesy of [StocksToTrade.com]( As you can see, TGT has taken a significant hit in 2023, plunging over 20% YTD. This underperformance points to the unique challenges faced by retailers—challenges that are often magnified for companies like TGT which rely heavily on consumer spending and sentiment. Just look at this comparison showing how much TGT has trailed the spoos this year: TGT/SPX Comparison — courtesy of Bloomberg Sure, this looks bad. However, there’s a silver lining… Any hint of sunshine through the clouds of economic gloom could send TGT soaring. If the retail sales data comes in strong, or if TGT can deliver a better-than-expected earnings surprise, we could see a sharp uptick in the share price. That's the beauty of a beaten-down stock; it doesn't take much to spark a dramatic reversal, especially when the market is hypersensitive to any positive shifts in the economic narrative. That said, the trend is still going against TGT. You need to be aware of the fact that when TGT misses earnings, its down days are often far more dramatic than its green days. Take note of this chart, showing the reaction in TGT stock to recent earnings: TGT historical earnings reactions — courtesy of Bloomberg 4 Key Points to Remember This Week So, what should traders do? Here are four crucial points to consider as you’re trading this week: - Keep your finger on the pulse of the economy, eyeing big macroeconomic shifts. - Watch the CPI like a hawk and interpret what it means (in the context of Fed policy and market sentiment). - Pay close attention to retail sales data and earnings for a read on consumer behavior. - And when Target reports its quarterly numbers, look beyond the headlines. Scrutinize their sales growth, margin pressures, inventory levels, and forward guidance to get the real scoop on their outlook. Given the complexity of the current market environment, with its mix of economic challenges and resilient market optimism, we must navigate carefully. A savvy trader will recognize that this week isn't just about reacting to numbers—it's about understanding the broader story those numbers are telling us. In the week ahead, stay informed, stay agile, and be ready to act on the opportunities and challenges that the market presents. Whether you're looking to capitalize on potential pullbacks or eyeing a rebound in retail, the key is to trade with insight and prepare for all scenarios. Here's to a week of strategic trading and staying one step ahead in the game. As always… Stay Street Smart, Jeff Zananiri P.S. Millionaire trader Tim Sykes is about to reveal a brand-new, game-changing AI trading system called XGPT that has the potential to completely transform the way you trade. And TOMORROW, November 15th at 8 p.m. EST, Tim is holding an urgent live briefing to finally “turn on” XGPT for the public. Don’t miss this opportunity. [Click here to SIGN UP before it’s TOO LATE!](   66 West Flagler Street STE 900 Miami, Florida 33130 United States [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [YouTube]( [Click Here to Unsubscribe]( **Our gurus teach skills others have used to make money. Any results displayed are extraordinary and are not typical and will vary from person to person. For more info read our [Earning Claims Disclosure]( About: Making money trading stocks takes time, dedication, and hard work. My goal is to teach you how I have succeeded in the market, but you may not achieve my results. Remember, there are risks involved with investing, including the potential loss of money. We are strongly committed to protecting your privacy and providing a safe & high-quality online experience for all of our visitors. We understand that you care about how the information you provide to us is used and shared. We have developed a Privacy Policy to inform you of our policies regarding the collection, use, and disclosure of information we receive from users of our website. Our Privacy Policy, along with our Term & Conditions, governs your use of this site. By using our site, or by accepting the Terms of Use (via opt-in, checkbox, pop-up, or clicking an email link confirming the same), you agree to be bound by our Terms & Conditions and our Privacy Policy. If you have provided personal, billing, or other voluntarily provided information, you may access, review, and make changes to it via instructions found on the Website or by replying to this email. To manage your receipt of marketing and non-transactional communications, you may unsubscribe by clicking the “unsubscribe” link located on the bottom of any marketing email. Emails related to the purchase or delivery of orders are provided automatically – Customers are not able to opt out of transactional emails. We will try to accommodate any requests related to the management of Personal Information in a timely manner. However, it is not always possible to completely remove or modify information in our databases (for example, if we have a legal obligation to keep it for certain timeframes, for example). If you have any questions, simply reply to this email or visit our website to view our official policies.