Tuesday Market Outlook: October 31, 2023

[Image] Tuesday Market Outlook: October 31, 2023 Before anything else, I’d like to say how much I enjoyed meeting so many of you at the 2023 Tim Sykes’ Trading Conference in Las Vegas! It always gets me so hyped to see bright people coming together to talk about trading. I hope you had as much fun as I did. It was a real treat. And speaking of treats… Happy Halloween, traders! It’s an extra-spooky Tuesday, which means it’s time for my weekly market outlook. Let’s break it down… The Market is Getting Desensitized… The Israel-Hamas conflict continues to be the biggest factor affecting the market. Usually, we see broad-based bearishness when geopolitical tensions are on the rise. However, this time, the sentiment is different… Despite the escalating tensions, the market seems to have grown resilient or, rather, become desensitized. To paint a clearer picture: Imagine hearing a loud noise for the first time … It startles you, right? But what if that noise keeps happening over and over again? After a while, you might not even notice it… That's kind of how the market is reacting to the Israel-Hamas situation. Even though the conflict is quite severe, the market, much like us with the recurring noise, is not reacting as strongly as you might expect. Furthermore, a specific trading pattern I identified last week is still playing out… We’re Still Seeing Monday Morning Melt-Ups Since the onset of this conflict, every Monday has been somewhat predictable… When the world doesn’t end over the weekend, the market typically catches a bid on Monday, seeing increased buying. This is tied to something I’ve been discussing a lot over the past few weeks — uncertainty. Over the weekend, traders are on edge about what negative news stories might come down the pipe. Then, when Monday comes around without a majorly bearish headline, the market jumps. For traders, this situation might seem like a golden opportunity — a sure shot, so to speak. But remember, there are no guarantees in the stock market. Will this week follow the pattern or offer a new twist? All Eyes on the Fed Meeting Shifting gears a bit, another major event on the financial calendar is the Federal Reserve’s FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting scheduled for Wednesday. This meeting garners global attention because the central bank’s decisions can have far-reaching effects on international markets. The central issue on everyone's mind? Will the Federal Reserve hint at another interest rate hike come December, or have they concluded their rate-increasing activities? Based on my observations, I think we could witness a short-term surge in the market, a "relief pop" if you will, on the day of the FOMC meeting. However, don’t let yourself easily fall into a typical “bull trap.” I’ll fade this move if it happens. So, if you're not sure what to do about this... I'm holding a live event tomorrow at 12 pm ET... And I'm going to walk you through how we can use this market hack on Wednesday… [Click here to add the event to your calendar.]( The World’s Most Valuable Company is Reporting Earnings Following closely on the heels of the FOMC meeting is another crucial event for tech enthusiasts and market watchers alike. This Thursday, November 2, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: APPL) is set to release its earnings report after market hours. The stakes are always high when you’re a tech juggernaut headed into earnings amid geopolitical conflicts. And AAPL is no exception here… The company’s growth story has been nothing short of remarkable. AAPL is [the most valuable company on the planet by market cap](. But there's a caveat… When looking at tech companies, traders tend to focus on growth over intrinsic value. So, if AAPL shows signs of slowing growth, it could spell trouble for the share price. The stock, which is priced based on this growth, could start to be seen as overvalued. To add to the drama, the buzz around the new iPhone sales plays a crucial role. If these sales numbers aren't stellar, it could indicate that Apple's forward guidance, a projection of their future earnings, might not be optimistic. And this guidance is something that traders pay very close attention to, especially in turbulent times. Taking all these factors into consideration, I think you should take a cautious approach toward AAPL this week. If anything, I’d lean towards trading puts. Closing Thoughts Keep a close eye on global tensions, the FOMC meeting, and big-tech earnings this week. Any (and potentially all) of these factors could greatly influence the direction of the stock market over the next few days. Stay disciplined, stick to your game plan, and I’ll talk to you all tomorrow. Stay Street Smart, Jeff Zananiri P.S. The latest overnight trade idea is out for Burn Notice Members. 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