Tuesday Market Outlook: October 3, 2023

[Image] Tuesday Market Outlook: October 3, 2023 Good morning, traders! It’s a new month. And it’s also Tuesday, so that means it’s time for my weekly market outlook. Let’s break it down… As I woke up to a new month in the stock market yesterday morning, I could feel the turmoil boiling over… The futures (financial contracts that indicate what might be in store for the stock market) were painted in red. Additionally, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA: SPY) was down 0.54% on the day at the time of writing… SPY 2-day 5-minute chart — courtesy of [StocksToTrade.com]( It’s time for us to try to answer an important question… What’s Causing This Bearishness? Some of you may have caught wind of the recent news over the weekend — news that had the financial community abuzz. On the surface, the unexpected agreement to keep our government open is a good thing. Such news might have been the major catalyst that pushed stock prices upward in ordinary circumstances. However, here’s the hard truth: this market isn’t normal. The way I see it, this "solution" for our government is like putting a band-aid on a bullet wound. We're just delaying the inevitable, or in other words, "kicking the can down the road." And I think yesterday’s selling is a sign that the market agrees with me. In the big picture, September was a rough period for the market — the worst month so far in 2023. But, now we need to start looking forward… What Happens Next? Keep a close watch on two key numbers… If the 10-year treasury yield lingers above 4.5% and crude oil's price holds firm above $90 … expect to see further "risk off” sentiment. Now, here’s a golden nugget of advice from my years on Wall Street — stay nimble. Picture yourself as a vendor in a bustling market, keeping your goods (or in trading terms, 'inventory') fresh and updated. Don’t get married to your positions … this market waits for no one. Adaptability is key. Reduce the size of your trades. Approach your plays with the utmost caution. Soon, an important number will dance across our screens — the jobs number. This isn't just any ordinary figure; it's a compass pointing toward the Federal Reserve's next move. I won't mince words: this can stir a storm in our market seas. When such big waves come, I often choose to swim against the tide, or in trading lingo, "fade those moves." So, if we witness the market in distress leading up to this announcement, don't be taken aback if a sudden buying surge follows. But, a word of caution: just as seasons don't change overnight, the market's mood won't transform simply because we flipped a page on our calendars. While October might be starting on a bearish foot, I think the bulls will regain control. However, patience is crucial here; it could be November (or even December) before that happens. Bottom line: Brace yourself for volatility. 8 Considerations for Trading This Week Like a Pro Here’s a summary of the main events, metrics, and stories I’m watching the week: - The recent unexpected agreement to keep the government running seemed positive. But this agreement is a temporary fix. - September was notably tough, marking the worst month for the market in 2023. - Watch for the 10-year treasury yield above 4.5% and crude oil prices above $90. These may indicate a cautious, "risk off" market sentiment. - Stay agile in trading, keep your stock 'inventory' fresh, and don't get overly attached to positions. - Be adaptable, trade cautiously, and consider reducing the size of your trades. - Looking forward, the upcoming jobs number might signal the Federal Reserve's next actions. Big market reactions are expected. - Despite the current selling, optimism from the bulls might return. But it may take time, possibly not happening until November or December. - October is set to be volatile with large price swings. Always be respectful of the market's mood. The trend is your friend. Closing Thoughts Tread wisely and, as always… Stay Street Smart, Jeff Zananiri P.S. My colleague Ben Sturgill just spotted some shocking, unusual trading activity, with all the classic signs of insiders building a position. Discover what you can do about this unusual trading activity, and how to harness "smart money" intel to improve your trading. [Click here NOW to save your seat for Ben's urgent live briefing!](   66 West Flagler Street STE 900 Miami, Florida 33130 United States [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [YouTube]( [Click Here to Unsubscribe]( **Our gurus teach skills others have used to make money. Any results displayed are extraordinary and are not typical and will vary from person to person. 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