Take the Rest of the Year Off

We’re only five weeks into 2024, and the S&P 500 is already up 4%. [Jeff Clark's Market Minute]( Take the Rest of the Year Off By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute We’re only five weeks into 2024, and the S&P 500 is already up 4%. The index traded as high as 4,975 on Friday – which is within spitting distance of the 5,000 price target many analysts pegged for the end of the year. At this point, though, it’s hard, mathematically, to argue for even more upside from here. And technically, it’s starting to feel a little like early 2022. Back then, after the S&P 500 popped 7% higher in just four trading days, [I argued]( folks might be well-advised to cash out and take the rest of the year off. A 7% gain is about the historical average annual return for the stock market. And by February 3, 2022, traders had already achieved that return. So, why not lock in the gain and take a well-deserved 11-month vacation from the stock market? I can make the same argument today. Recommended Link [LIVE DEMO: Elon Musk’s AI hits 65 MPH]( [image]( “I just taped a live demonstration of Elon Musk’s AI in action. [Click here to watch: it’s around 2 minutes long.]( Elon already created an “army of millionaires” with Tesla. Looks like he’ll do it again with his AI. Because unlike ChatGPT, Elon’s AI works in the REAL world. That’s why I think Elon’s AI will be [100X stronger than ChatGPT]( –Colin Tedards [See Elon Musk’s AI in action.]( -- Lock in Some Gains With the S&P 500 already up 4% for the new year, the index is trading 22 times its 2024 earnings estimates. That’s at the high end of its historical valuation range. And that puts the earnings yield (earnings divided by price) at 4.94%. By comparison, a three-month Treasury bill yields 5.25%. Investors who caught the rally over the past five weeks can sell and lock in a 4% gain. Then, they can stick the money in a money market fund for the next 11 months and collect another 4% or so. That’ll give them an 8% return for 2024 – which is on par with the historical average of the stock market, without any risk of a market decline. And that risk looks substantial right now. Here’s an updated look at the chart of the S&P 500… [(Click here to expand image)]( As the index has been making new highs over the past month, all of the momentum indicators at the bottom of the chart are making lower highs. This sort of “negative divergence” tells us the momentum behind the rally is waning. It is an early warning sign of a reversal. Free Trading Resources Have you checked out Jeff's free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career – at zero cost to you. Just [click here]( to check it out. So, with the fundamental valuation stretched to the high of its historic range and the technical condition looking poised to make a turn, investors might follow the same advice I offered in early 2022… Consider taking the rest of the year off. Best regards and good trading, [Signature] Jeff Clark Editor, Market Minute IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… [Flip Today’s Crazy Market to Your Gain]( 2022 was a bloodbath for the stock market. But those following Market Wizard Larry Benedict saw gains like: - 31% in 24 hours - 106% in three days - 79% in three days - 61% in three days - 120% in 11 days - And more… And these gains have come whether stocks go up or down! What’s Larry’s secret? In this short interview, he reveals his unique method – including the name of the ticker symbol you need to get started. [Click here for a private viewing.]( [image]( [Jeff Clark's Market Minute]( Jeff Clark Trader 55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.jeffclarktrader.com]( To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please [add our email address]( to your address book. This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. Jeff Clark Trader welcomes your feedback and questions. But please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized advice. To contact Customer Service, call toll free Domestic/International: 1-800-752-0820, Mon–Fri, 9am–7pm ET, or email us [here](mailto:contactus@jeffclarktrader.com). © 2024 Omnia Research, LLC. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution of our content, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Omnia Research, LLC. [Privacy Policy]( | [Terms of Use](