We’ve Only Seen This Four Times in Four Decades

Inertia. [Jeff Clark's Market Minute]( We’ve Only Seen This Four Times in Four Decades By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute That should just about do it for the Treasury bond bounce. T-bonds have put on a blistering rally over the past three weeks. The iShares 20+ T-bond ETF (TLT) is up almost 9% since mid-October – which is a remarkable gain for a bond fund. But all short-term bounces must come to an end. The longer-term trend must reassert itself. And, in the world of T-bonds, that longer-term trend is down. Recommended Link [It’s the biggest change to our money since 1971…]( [image]( Investigative journalist Dr. Nomi Prins… Famous for exposing the connections between America’s most corrupt officials and the Federal Reserve… Exposes a truth about the American Dollar that would have been unthinkable three years ago. “As more banks fail, the Federal Reserve, the White House, and the financial elites are set to enact the biggest change to our money since 1971. You must act NOW, before it’s too late.” Dr. Nomi Prins As the turbulence in our world grows worse and worse… Protect your wealth and preserve your privacy… [Click here now to see what Nomi recommends before it’s too late.]( -- Look at this long-term chart of the yield curve… [Image] Regular readers will recognize this chart as showing the difference between the yields on ten-year T-notes and three-month T-bills. The difference is normally a positive number – which makes sense because folks should get paid a higher interest rate for lending their money for a longer time period. For the past year, however, the yield curve has been inverted – meaning short-term rates have been higher than long-term rates. That is abnormal. It has only happened four other times over the past 40 years. And the current inversion is the most significant of all of them. Only two things can happen to fix this condition. Either short-term rates have to come down, or long-term rates have to go up. The Fed has indicated, repeatedly, that it plans to keep short-term rates “higher for longer.” In other words, short-term rates aren’t coming down. So, the only way this yield curve gets back to a normal condition is for long-term rates to go up. And higher long-term rates mean lower T-bond prices. Of course, nothing in the financial markets ever goes straight up or straight down for too long. There are corrections and bounces inside of every long-term trend. And three weeks ago, TLT had sold off so hard for so long that it was due for an oversold bounce. We wrote about it [a few weeks ago]( even going so far as to put dotted lines on the TLT chart to project how we thought the bounce would unfold. Here’s an updated look at that chart… [Image] TLT has climbed all the way back up to its 50-day moving average line. It has worked off the oversold conditions. And it has achieved our short-term price objective. TLT is up 9% in three weeks. Most Treasury note investors need to wait two years to make that sort of return. Now though, it’s time to sell. Free Trading Resources Have you checked out Jeff's free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career – at zero cost to you. Just [click here]( to check it out. Sure, TLT could rally a bit more from here. Anything can happen in the short term. But the long-term trend is lower. And that long-term trend could reassert itself at any moment. Best regards and good trading, [Signature] Jeff Clark READER MAILBAG Are you watching TLT? Let us know your thoughts – and any questions you have – at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com. IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… Market Wizard Reveals: [The One Ticker Retirement Plan]( Introducing the “One Ticker Retirement Plan”… It’s a way to trade just one ticker… And potentially make all the money you need – no matter what happens in the stock market. Sounds too good to be true? [Larry reveals everything in this interview – including the name of the ticker you need to get started.]( [image]( [Jeff Clark's Market Minute]( Jeff Clark Trader 55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.jeffclarktrader.com]( To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please [add our email address]( to your address book. This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. Jeff Clark Trader welcomes your feedback and questions. But please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized advice. To contact Customer Service, call toll free Domestic/International: 1-800-752-0820, Mon–Fri, 9am–7pm ET, or email us [here](mailto:contactus@jeffclarktrader.com). © 2023 Omnia Research, LLC. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution of our content, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Omnia Research, LLC. [Privacy Policy]( | [Terms of Use](