It Just Ain’t So...

As Twain put it, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. [Jeff Clark's Market Minute]( It Just Ain’t So… By Imre Gams, analyst, Market Minute As Twain put it, “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you in trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” In early 2021, investors knew for sure that the already low rates would stay that way. It was around that time that I bought my property in Canada. The mortgage broker tried to sell me on a variable rate at around 1.6%. He assured me that rates wouldn’t rise until 2023 at the earliest. It was easy to see why he thought that… Recommended Link [“One-Stock Millionaire” Trades ONE Stock for 3 Decades… Wins In Any Market]( [image]( Jeff Clark here… I’ve joined the ranks of the top 1% of wealthy Americans… by IGNORING 99% of the entire stock market. Among 6,000 different stocks on the market to choose from… Hides ONE incredibly special stock. I call it, [“The One-Stock Retirement”]( because I’ve used it for over 3-decades (through ANY market) closing huge gains time and time again. Trading this ONE stock over and over again is changing the lives of everyday folks across the world – from school teachers to doctors. You do not need trading experience and you can [get started with only $100!]( [Click Here to Learn More About My Secret.]( -- Around the same time, Tiff Macklem, Canada’s version of Jerome Powell, told Canadians that “interest rates will be low for a long time.” Of course, it just ain’t so… Central banks hiked rates in unison in late 2021 and early 2022. Today, the average 30-year mortgage is above 7%. Those that took the variable rate are probably regretting it. Just last week, news broke of a family forced to sell the home they bought in 2021. Their mortgage payments jumped from $2,850 to $6,200. I don’t mean to make light of the situation. But in some sense, it’s a perfect illustration of the market we find ourselves in. The New World Order The investing world order you have understood for the past 30 years or so is over. The biggest risk for investors going forward will be relying on the things they think they know for sure. Since the early 1990s at least, investors have known for sure that… - Inflation would stay low. - Credit would be readily available. - Central banks would always be there to save us. If these conditions sound familiar, they should. Broadly speaking, this is the financial and economic environment we have enjoyed for the past 30-odd years. When something lasts that long, people assume it will last forever. But it doesn’t… Free Trading Resources Have you checked out Jeff's free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career – at zero cost to you. Just [click here]( to check it out. Investors were pleased with the latest inflation reading here in the United States. The topline figure from the consumer price index clocked in at “just” 3.2%. Never mind that core inflation was close to 5%. And never mind that this figure calculates a change from July of 2022, when inflation was raging the hottest. And never mind that the “official” numbers are inherently untrustworthy. And never mind that this is still a far cry from the Fed’s 2% target. Forget all that and, sure, celebrate the CPI print. What about credit? In May, Chair Powell assured investors that: Conditions in [the banking sector] have broadly improved since early March, and the U.S banking system is sound and resilient. Maybe. Maybe not. By the Fed’s own data, banks are tightening lending standards as if we’re heading into a recession. And that’s a problem for an economy that depends on the continued expansion of credit just to operate. But surely, should anything go wrong, the central banks will be able to “save us.” After all, that’s what happened in 2008 and 2020. I’m not so sure… The Fed finds itself between a rock and a hard place. The rock is the obvious signs of a looming recession (the yield curve is as inverted as it’s been since the early ‘80s). The typical “solution” would be to cut rates. But the hard place is the inflation levels that are still nowhere close to the Fed’s goal. There are no good options left. I don’t share this to scare you or make light of the situation. But if you’re relying on the things you think you know for sure, it’s going to be a very rough few years. And don’t let the tremendous rally of the last six months fool you. Every bear market has months-long countertrend rallies that trick investors into letting down their guard. The recent decline in the Nasdaq – down some 7% in the last month – should be evidence of that. So, as an investor, what should you do? It’s All Vibes One of the best indications of near-term movements in stocks is sentiment and momentum. I know this completely flies in the face of everything you’ve ever been told or believed about markets before. Almost every financial advisor and investor out there relies on fundamental and conventional economic analysis to make decisions. For years, that “buy and hold” approach worked well. I think that’s over. Today, the best returns will be made by traders, the individuals who buy the bounces and mercilessly sell the tops. And contrary to popular opinion, anybody can be a trader by following a few simple rules. Over the past few months, [I conducted an experiment with two novice traders](. The experiment was simple. Follow a handful of rules and execute them without exception. I think [the results]( will surprise you. They had the chance to take more profits off the table than some of the highest-paid traders in the world. On August 23 at 8 p.m., I’d like to show you. More importantly, you’ll see how you can immediately use this information to make better financial decisions in the future. [To learn more, click right here.]( Happy trading. Imre Gams IN CASE YOU MISSED IT… [Market Wizard crushed the market in 2022. What’s he got in store for 2023?]( Market Wizard Larry Benedict crushed the market in 2022… He delivered a perfect track record to his One Ticker Trader readers, going 11-for-11. Previously, he went 20 straight years on Wall Street without a single losing year. And when the market plummeted 37% in 2008, he delivered 23% returns… Now he’s sharing an over-the-shoulder “demo” of his winning strategy in action. He calls it the One Ticker Retirement Plan… And it takes less than 10 seconds to demonstrate. [Watch it here.]( [image]( [Jeff Clark's Market Minute]( Jeff Clark Trader 55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.jeffclarktrader.com]( To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please [add our email address]( to your address book. This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. Jeff Clark Trader welcomes your feedback and questions. But please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized advice. To contact Customer Service, call toll free Domestic/International: 1-800-752-0820, Mon–Fri, 9am–7pm ET, or email us [here](mailto:contactus@jeffclarktrader.com). © 2023 Omnia Research, LLC. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution of our content, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Omnia Research, LLC. [Privacy Policy]( | [Terms of Use](