How to Determine a High-Probability Trade

It's time to clear up some questions. [Jeff Clark's Market Minute]( How to Determine a High-Probability Trade By Jeff Clark, editor, Market Minute Lately, I’ve been receiving a lot of questions about some of the methods I use when trading options and thought it would be a good opportunity to go over a couple of them. So, for today, let’s take a look in the mailbag and see what people have been curious about… Recommended Link [The “Tech Royalty” Retirement Plan Can Help You Live Like Royalty]( [image]( For the first time ever, a new type of tech investment allows you to collect ongoing income. One former Wall Street insider calls them, “Tech Royalties.” And new “Tech Royalty” savings accounts allow you to collect as much as 8%… 12%… and even 17% or more. The best part? “Tech Royalties” also deliver capital gains as high as 3,639%… 4,646%… and even 15,911%. It sounds impossible, but it’s true. [Find out why “Tech Royalties” may be the best asset for the 2020s.]( -- You frequently use Bollinger Bands when analyzing the [VIX]( but do you use them for individual stocks as well? – Jonathan Thanks for the question, Jonathan. [Bollinger Bands]( (BBs) indicate the most probable trading range for a stock or index. They’re a useful tool for determining overbought and oversold conditions, and for pinpointing possible reversal trades. For example, I often look for the major index charts to trade above their upper BBs, or below their lower BBs, and set up the potential for a sell signal or a buy signal when the indexes close back inside their bands. These sell and buy signals have been quite reliable indicators, producing high-probability reversal trades on the indexes. On individual stocks, however, the Bollinger Band buy and sell signals are not as reliable. Yes, the BBs do help indicate overbought and oversold conditions. But individual stocks can typically persist in those conditions where broad market indexes can’t. So, BBs are less reliable at predicting reversal trades on stocks than they are on indexes. When looking at individual stocks, perhaps the best thing to do is to see how the stock has behaved previously when it traded outside of its BBs. Then, you can see if there’s a consistent pattern for that stock. Free Trading Resources Have you checked out Jeff's free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career – at zero cost to you. Just [click here]( to check it out. When you’re looking at various options, do you pay attention to the option interest and/or volume? Do you have a volume figure you look for before you go further or is it more the interest that you look at? I see lots of options that have the interest at 5,000 or 10,000 and the volume only 200 or 300. Just curious on how much attention you pay to those two sets of figures. Thanks for taking the time to answer questions. – Dave Good question, Dave. Volume and open interest are both important factors when determining the liquidity of an option. Since my trade recommendations go out to thousands of subscribers, we’ll often generate a huge amount of activity in the options I recommend. It’s important that the recommendations be liquid enough to allow all subscribers to get into and out of positions relatively easily. But, the most important factor in determining liquidity is the spread between the [bid]( and [ask prices]( for the option. (The “bid” is the highest price buyers are willing to pay for the option. The “ask” is the lowest price sellers are willing to accept.) If an option trades with a one-cent spread, then there’s plenty of liquidity. It doesn’t matter how much volume there is or how large the open interest is. If the difference between the bid and ask prices is only $0.01, subscribers will have an easy time trading the option. [“Why I Left a Lucrative Career in Money Management at 42” -Jeff Clark]( On the other hand, if the difference between the bid and ask prices is greater than $0.20, then there may not be enough liquidity to allow us to get into and out of the position at fair prices. Most of the trades I recommend tend to be short-term oriented. So, we need to be able to get into and out of positions quickly. That’s not possible to do if hundreds, or thousands, of subscribers have to negotiate a wide spread between the bid and ask prices. So, in addition to volume and open interest, I also look at the bid/ask spread before considering an option recommendation. Best regards and good trading, [signature] Jeff Clark Reader Mailbag What’s your go-to indicator to gauge market movements? Why do you find it more reliable than others? 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