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This Weather-Related Play Is Different

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Thu, Jul 1, 2021 11:32 AM

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We’re nearing the peak of this cycle. This Weather-Related Play Is Different By Eric Shamilov,

We’re nearing the peak of this cycle. [Jeff Clark's Market Minute]( This Weather-Related Play Is Different By Eric Shamilov, editor, Market Minute It’s hot out there… Temperatures are breaking records in the Pacific Northwest. Now the northeast is going through a brutal heat wave as well – and summer has just started. With extreme weather, comes extreme price action in natural gas. That’s because unexpected heat waves strain the power grid and cause prices to soar. No other product is as sensitive to weather spikes as natural gas. When commodity traders see hotter than expected temperatures take hold, they know that prices can jump quickly. The same holds true when temperatures drop more than expected, as we saw during the Polar Vortex of 2014. Some investors may be looking at previous supply shocks as a framework for playing today’s movement in natural gas. Although the way that short-term prices will evolve will probably look similar, the long-term dynamics affecting natural gas today are worlds apart to what it was previously. Recommended Link [Bitcoin is DEAD]( [image]( Bitcoin is DEAD! Because there’s a NEW way to trade. - It can pay far more than cryptos… - Trades can cost as little as 1¢… - Warren Buffett made $12 billion with the idea behind this technique… One of these odd trades even shot up 183% in one day! Readers across two services saw the chance at a rare 4,942% gain with one 19¢ recommendation. Again – [this is NOT crypto trading](. But you CAN make these trades right from a normal brokerage account. Here’s [the full scoop]( on this weird way to trade. [BETTER THAN BITCOIN]( -- A Roadmap for Playing This Heat Wave At this point, natural gas is already up 22% for June. Judging from previous well-known weather shocks, we may be nearing a short-term top. Take a look at this chart… It shows how the previous two well-known weather-related supply shocks have affected the price of the US Natural Gas Fund (UNG). You can see that each event caused a peak in price no more than 40 days after the initial price shock. Prices then moved lower in the days after. The movements should tell you three things… - Weather-related supply shocks are terrible indicators for long-term prices - Natural gas has only risen 20% from the current heat wave - Prices can rise as high as 30-50% within 35 days before falling This kind of dynamic is the way most “[hype lifecycles]( in commodities play out when it comes to weather. Notice how prices revert to where they started, or worse, within three months… With most of the upside in natural gas already realized, we’re probably nearing the peak of this particular “heat wave cycle.” But, this time around, the underlying supply and demand dynamics will make a pullback in natural gas a buying opportunity. Free Trading Resources Have you checked out Jeff's free trading resources on his website? It contains a selection of special reports, training videos, and a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career – at zero cost to you. Just [click here]( to check it out. Bullish on Natural Gas Dynamics During these previous extreme weather events, producers were in a rush to pump for gas, but this time production has slowed. Combine that with the already tight supplies due to the pandemic, and the natural gas market is bracing for even higher prices this coming winter. Currently, two factors will create support from the inevitable pullback as the hype lifecycle plays its course. And one of them involves a growing sub-industry within the natural gas market: - Bigger seasonally adjusted supply drawdowns than normal (even without the heat wave) - Liquified natural gas (LNG) exports are becoming a long-term game changer And it’s not just the U.S. market that’s benefiting from increased LNG use, it’s happening around the world. The global LNG trade will rise by 21% by 2025, with the U.S. becoming the biggest exporter… and China is set to surpass Japan as the biggest importer of LNG this year. In the past, LNG has been a globally segmented market, with no real effect on natural gas prices. But now, it has become globally competitive… and with increased competition come higher prices. A Better Way to Get in on Natural Gas Choosing the best play for natural gas exposure can be tricky… Products like UNG or the ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL) are terrible vehicles for long-term holds in portfolios. They’re good for short-term trading… which would work well right now. For example, since this time last year, natural gas prices are up 152%. But these returns are an illusion for investors that use ETFs like UNG – having only returned 42% during the same stretch. A better way to get long-term exposure is to invest directly into natural gas producers. [The 3-Stock Retirement Blueprint]( On average, natural gas producers have returned around 170% since last June, surpassing even headline natural gas returns. Investors should use this heat wave to trim exposure of their gas producing stocks, and use the inevitable pullback once this heat wave is over to add or create new positions. For short-term traders focused on taking advantage of price fluctuations from this heat wave, I expect UNG to trade around 10% higher in the short term, comparable to prior weather-related supply shocks, before finally capitulating down again. Regards, Eric Shamilov Contributing Editor, Market Minute Reader Mailbag Will you be taking advantage of this movement due to the heat wave? What’s your plan to trade it? Let us know your thoughts – and any questions you have – at feedback@jeffclarktrader.com. In Case You Missed It… [This is how to make more money]( Why make only 3% when you could make 582% on your money? Instead of buying stocks and praying they go up… Jeff Clark’s “Money Multiplier” strategy could’ve helped you put 194x MORE money into your account… over the same time! Instead of barely squeezing a paltry $150 out of the market… you could have had the chance to make $29,100! Want to see how it works? [Show me the way!]( [image]( Get Instant Access Click to read these free reports and automatically sign up for daily research. [image]( [The Ultimate Guide to Taking Back Your Privacy]( [image]( [How to Earn Free Bitcoin]( [image]( [An Insider’s Guide to Making a Fortune from Small Tech Stocks]( [Jeff Clark's Market Minute]( Jeff Clark Trader 55 NE 5th Avenue, Delray Beach, FL 33483 [www.jeffclarktrader.com]( To ensure our emails continue reaching your inbox, please [add our email address]( to your address book. This editorial email containing advertisements was sent to {EMAIL} because you subscribed to this service. To stop receiving these emails, click [here](. Jeff Clark Trader welcomes your feedback and questions. But please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized advice. To contact Customer Service, call toll free Domestic/International: 1-800-752-0820, Mon–Fri, 9am–7pm ET, or email us [here](mailto:contactus@jeffclarktrader.com). © 2021 Omnia Research, LLC. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution of our content, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Omnia Research, LLC. [Privacy Policy]( | [Terms of Use](

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