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[Will There Be A Long Term Impact To The Fed’s Shift In Rhetoric?] By Sven Carlin on June 23, 2016 [8655581031_dbe957a193_b] - A positive outlook seems more political than realistic as the FED is out of maneuvering power. - Keeping interest rates unchanged is the best and the only thing the FED can currently do. - Low interest rates will weaken the dollar, boost exports and increase corporate earnings in the upcoming earnings season. Introduction In FED’s Chairwoman Yellen semiannual policy [report], the rhetoric has significantly changed since the last report in February. In short, the full employment target is almost reached but the inflation rate is still below the targeted 2% and the expectations for the reaching of that target have been changed from short term to medium term. Further, the latest job reports show a slowdown in jobs increases which creates a bit of a scare. The FED estimates the slowdown to be transitory. On the positive side, wages seem to be finally picking up which is a good sign for inflation. Weak data comes from the economy where the U.S. GDP grew only 0.75% in Q1 2016 on an annual basis due to the fact that the expensive dollar weighs on exports, low oil prices and weak business investments. The FED On The Economy On one side, Yellen says that the slowdown in employment should be only transitory and that data from one quarter does not mean much, while on the other side she states that the quarterly pickup in consumer spending and increase in household wealth will [bring] “further improvements in the labor market and the economy more broadly over the next few years.” As always, in order to show the other side of the medal Yellen mentions risks like lower employment and business investments that might lower domestic demand, the general slowdown in U.S. productivity potentially continuing, a stronger slowdown in China and a possible Brexit. All of the mentioned possible scenarios might have a negative impact on investors’ perception of risk and therefore abruptly change the current stable market situation. [Easy-to-use Signal System Picks Stocks With Uncanny Accuracy] Here are several stocks our system said to buy: WNC shot up 288% after system said BUY VCI shot up 233% after system said BUY ETM shot up 953% after system said BUY Plus ... get over $398 worth of valuable books, videos, and reports just for trying this system risk-free for the next 30 days! [Click Here To Try It Risk-Free For The Next 30 Days!] [Why This Trading Genius Makes Money On Almost Every Trade He Makes] 89 of his last 92 trades have been profitable ... That’s a 96% win rate! Now he wants to send you his exact trades and teach you his strategy. [Click Here To Learn More!] Monetary Policy The FED decided to keep interest rates unchanged and even more importantly, keep the FED’s holdings of longer-term securities at an elevated level. The most important part of the report is related to the fact that interest rates are expected to increase only gradually as the economy is too weak to withstand sharper increases. The necessary rate needed to keep the economy operating close to its full potential is low by historical standards. Only if the above mentioned uncertainties and productivity, and employment slowdowns fade will the FED increase interest rates gradually, if not, rates will remain like this for a longer period of time. The report is concluded with the case that if the economy were to disappoint, the FED would lower its interest rates. Comment In relation to the potential lowering of the interest rate in adverse economic situations one might ask: Lower the interest rate to where? As the interest rate is at historical lows, a lowering from 0.5% to 0% doesn’t seem at all significant. It is highly unlikely that demand for houses in a recession will increase if the mortgage rate decreases from 3.75% to 3.25%. In order to be significant for the economy, interest rates have to really have an influence on demand as they had in the previous monetary interventions. [figure 1] Figure 1: FED interest rate changes. Source: [Trading Economics]. Probably everyone expected that the economy would pick up like it did in the 1990s and 2000s, but it hasn’t in the last several years, at least not enough to ignite inflation or allow interest rate increases. This puts the FED in a difficult position as it has no maneuvering space if any economy shocks happen. The good news in the bad news is that a similar situation is affecting Europe, Japan and China, so the FED can keep interest rates low without severe outflows of capital. Long Term Outlook Keeping the interest rates unchanged is probably the only thing the FED can do at this moment as there are no clear indications in where the economy is going. The [current] home sales are at a nine-year high, but this again does not change the structural problems like the low productivity because with a sold home no value is created, only on paper due to the increased asset prices further fuel the asset bubble. The median house price increased by an astonishing 4.7% compared to last year. The low interest rates will weaken the dollar in relation to other currencies and thus make U.S. exports more attractive. Also, corporate earnings will be higher when translated to dollars which should have a good impact in the upcoming earnings season. [figure 2 dollar] Figure 2: Dollar index has been falling in the last 6 months. Source: [Bloomberg]. But, the structural issues are still lingering behind the good news and sooner or later, hopefully later, will have an impact. The FED will continue in trying to keep things stable which is remarkable, and no one can know how long the FED will succeed in this. Perhaps even for years as it has already been doing this for more than 7 years. [No Comments »] | Filed under: [View all posts in Investiv Daily], [View all posts in US Economy], [View all posts in Interest Rates], [View all posts in FED] | Tags: No Tags --------------------------------------------------------------- If you are having trouble reading this email, you may [view the online version] This email was sent to {EMAIL} by Investiv, LLC 3400 North Ashton Blvd. | Suite 170 | Lehi | UT | 84043 [Forward to a friend] | [Unsubscribe] Disclaimers Investing is Inherently Risky There are risks inherent in all investments, which may make such investments unsuitable for certain persons. These include, for example, economic, political, currency exchange, rate fluctuations, and limited availability of information on international securities. You may lose all of your money trading and investing. Do NOT enter any trade without fully understanding the worst-case scenarios of that trade. And do NOT trade with money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance of an investment is not necessarily indicative of its future results. No assurance can be given that any implied recommendation will be profitable or will not be subject to losses. Hypothetical Results Are Reported Results and examples used in the Company’s advertisements, books, videos, websites, and other media—including on the Site and the Network—are, in some cases, based on hypothetical (simulated) trades. Plainly speaking, these trades were not actually executed. Hypothetical performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, hypothetical results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the hypothetical results may have under-or-over compensation for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Hypothetical trading programs generally are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. Hypothetical results also do not account for commissions or slippage. The Company’s simulations assume purchase and sale prices believed to be attainable. Yet traders are going to be getting into trades at different times and using various exit approaches, which may result in different pricing and outcomes. You may or may not receive the best available price on the purchase or the sale of a position in actual trading. Information provided by the Company is not investment advice. The Company is not a registered investment adviser, stock broker, or brokerage. You agree that the Company does not represent, warrant, or take responsibility that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Examples published by the Company are selected for illustrative purposes only. They are not typical and do not represent the typical results of all stocks within the Company’s software or its individual scans and searches. No independent party has audited any hypothetical performance contained at this Web site, nor has any independent party undertaken to confirm that they reflect the trading method under the assumptions or conditions specified. Offers Disinterested Commentary and Analysis The Company does not receive any form of payment or other compensation for publishing information, news, research, or any other material concerning specific securities on the Network that is intended to affect or influence the value of securities. The Company, and its personnel, do not engage in front-running of recommendations and do not trade against one’s own recommendations. The Company and its management may benefit from an increase or decrease in the share prices of the profiled companies, and/or may have other actual or potential conflicts of interest. If a particular security featured in a newsletter publication is concurrently owned by the Company in its corporate brokerage account, or in any of the individual accounts of the Company’s principals or analysts / writers, that fact will be disclosed. The Company, its principals, analysts and writers may choose to purchase a security or derivative featured in one of its newsletter publications, but typically will wait three (3) trading days from the date of publication before initiating said purchase. [Disclaimers, Terms & Conditions] | [Privacy Policy] Copyright 2016

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