Job Market Rebounds With Fewer People

Maybe Jerome Powell was right [Click to view in browser](. Dear Reader, We have some BIG UPDATES for all you Markets and Minds subscribers. [And you need to take action now to make sure you don't miss out!]( Our newsletter got a complete makeover. We overhauled the format and layout of the newsletter, making it easier to read and simpler to follow. And gave it a nifty new title - THE JUICE [But you won't receive this newsletter unless you sign up HERE.]( Because pretty soon, Markets and Minds will disappear FOREVER! Proprietary Data Insights Financial Pros Top Leisure Goods Stock Searches Last Month Rank Name Searches #1 Mattel 99 #2 Hasbro 62 #3 Nautilus Group 51 #4 Vista Outdoors 27 #5 Super League Gaming 19 Sales Hires Slow [Sell Salesman GIF by Ryan Serhant] In the last few weeks, we heard from several advertising companies, including Facebook (FB), Snapchat (SNAP), and Pinterest (PINS). Shares of Snapchat declined the most as they noted slower advertising spend. As we point out in our main story, today’s jobs numbers emphasize this point. Total employed in sales and related occupations is down 376,000 year over year. It’s one of the only categories down compared to the prior year. With supply chains snarled, companies don’t have enough products and services to satisfy demand. So why spend money to advertise and sell? We expect SG&A costs to decline this quarter for consumer goods manufacturers compared to prior years as companies reduce advertising and sales spend. Some of this could be offset by inflation. However, companies like Hasbro (HAS), Mattel (MAT), should turn a solid profit per unit this quarter. The question is whether they can produce enough to generate a better overall profit. Sponsored [Watch A.I. Forecast Your Stocks In Seconds]( Artificial intelligence makes trading simple. See what stocks are on the rise this week, and what trades you should probably exit…before it’s too late. A.I. can help you fine-tune your trading decisions by giving you up to 72-hour advanced market forecasting. Save your seat at [our LIVE online demonstration]( and see your stock forecasted today. This event is absolutely free. Registrations close after the first 200 guests, so hurry up and [save your spot now!]( It’s not magic. It’s machine learning. Economy Job Market Rebounds With Fewer People Key Takeaways - Unemployment resumed its downward trend as leisure and hospitality added more jobs than any other sector. - We face an aging workforce problem that plagued Japan in the 1990s. - Additionally, people are staying out of the workforce, partly due to a skills gap. [GIF by UC Davis] Today’s jobs numbers brought some happy news to economists. The Good - The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6% - Nonfarm payrolls increased 531,000 - The labor force participation rate remained flat at 61.6% - Leisure & hospitality added 164,000, while the unemployment rate for the sector dropped to 7.5% - Manufacturing gained 60,000 while transportation and warehousing added 54,000 The Bad - Government payrolls dropped by 73,000 led by local education at 43,400 - Job leavers jumped from 788,000 in September to 840,000 - Sales and office occupations dropped 587,000 jobs compared to last year - There are 173,000 more people not in the labor force than a year ago - There are 923,000 more people who do not want a job compared to last year Heading Towards Japan Take a look at the labor force participation rate over time. This graph highlights a challenge the U.S. faces that still plagued Japan - an aging population. We know about the baby boomer generation from 1946-1964. Those folks are now 57-75 years old - right around the retirement age. In the wake of the pandemic and soaring equities and housing, many on the bubble are taking the opportunity to retire early. That’s exacerbating a labor crunch already apparent across multiple industries. Without a growing labor force, we’ll have a small set of workers supporting an economy with more retirees. As Japan found out, that leads to economic stagnation. I Don’t Want To Work The last two points in the negatives section highlight an inflationary problem. Folks don’t want to work. It’s not that they can’t. They simply don’t want to. What’s unusual is that they continue to hold out despite rising wages, which were up 0.4% for the month and 4.9% vs last year. On top of that, there are 216,000 more people that were part-time for non-economic reasons compared to the prior month. If we dig into the data, we find a clue as to why this might be. Last year, 149,000 people listed as unemployed were in school or training. This year it’s 177,000. Within that data, the starkest jump came from women. In October 2020, 55,000 women were unemployed because of school or training. Last month it was 133,000. These data points highlight an education gap we knew about as our economy requires more skilled labor. The Bottom Line: Labor markets are improving. But they aren’t seeing the deeper health improvements that came prior to the pandemic. We need to see the labor force participation tick up before we can declare an economic recovery. Otherwise, we’ll simply slide from one problem to the next, in this case, the aging workforce and a skills gap. News & Insights Freshly Squeezed - [10 Best Low Risk Stocks to Buy Now]( - [Comments on October Employment Report]( - [The PhilStockWorld com LIVE Weekly Webinar 11-03-2021 (Video Recording)]( [Make sure to sign up for The Juice to keep receiving our premier investment newsletter.]( # [submit to reddit]( [submit to reddit]( [submit to reddit]( To ensure delivery of all emails, [whitelist us](. 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