Dear Fellow Investor,
I usually don't give away my best stock idea but we are running a promotion right now and I'd like to give something valuable back to the subscribers who are powering this website. We launched our quarterly best performing hedge funds strategy nearly 4.5 years ago and not one subscriber has said "I lost money by EXACTLY following your stock picks". The reason is simple. The stock picks of our quarterly newsletter returned 96.9% during the 4.5 years since the end of May 2014. S&P 500 ETF (SPY) returned 56.1% during the same period.
Our strategy also outperformed the market by 3 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2018 when the S&P 500 Index lost 6.5% due to concerns regarding trade war with China and a rising interest rate environment. Earlier this year, when S&P 500 Index was losing 9.8% between January 26th and April 2nd, our strategy lost only 6.1%. Because of these strong results in up and down markets, our quarterly newsletter is extremely popular among investors.
We use two different approaches to pick stocks. I don't have a team of analysts who can spend weeks analyzing the suitability of an investment idea. I bet that you don't have the time or resources to do your own analysis. The cost of thorough stock analysis is extremely high and it doesn't guarantee superior returns anyway.
There are hedge funds with more money than God who spend millions on obtaining information (both legally or illegally) before making their investment decisions. They aren't stupid either. They have degrees from the world's most elite colleges and they know that they will be filthy rich if they are able to beat the market with their stock picks. There are thousands of hedge funds with tens of thousands of analysts. I can't outspend them and I can't outwork them.
Fortunately I don't have to outspend them to beat them. The trick I use is to identify the best ideas of the best hedge fund managers. How do I do that?
As I said earlier, I have two different approaches. The first one is presented in our quarterly newsletter. I have a PhD in financial economics and developed a quantitative investment strategy that tries to identify the best stock picks of more than 700 hedge funds and narrow down the list to only 5 to 15 stocks every quarter.
I backtested this strategy and found that it outperformed the market by an average of more than 12 percentage points per year during a 15-year period. I am an expert in backtesting and took extraordinary precautions to avoid several pitfalls (like survivorship bias or selection bias) that most researchers knowingly or unknowingly fall into.
However, you should never invest in a strategy solely based on the backtested results. You should understand why the strategy was working and verify that it is still working today.
Our strategy outperformed the market by more than 40 percentage points in 4.5 years and this is slightly worse than its backtested results. However, we are going through a period where large-cap stocks are delivering historically exceptional returns whereas small-cap stocks are underperforming, and our strategy invests in small-cap stocks.
Our strategy works because it identifies the best stock picks of the best hedge fund managers at an extremely high accuracy. Our strategy works because it invests in smaller cap stocks that are followed by only a few analysts, that are inefficiently priced, and that are misunderstood by the mainstream institutional investors.
For example one of our 8 quarterly picks in August 2017 was IAC Interactive and it remained in our portfolio for 6 months. We first picked it at $105 when the market was basically pricing the companyâs non-cash and non-publicly traded assets at a negative enterprise value of over $800 million or âconsiderably less than nothingâ. Most investors didn't really understand this stock.
We sold it at $148 in February. We will share the new stock picks of our quarterly best performing hedge funds strategy next week. You can [download a sample issue of this newsletter here]( .
The second approach we use to pick stocks is way better than our market crushing best performing hedge funds strategy that we share in our quarterly newsletter. It is way better because it directly gets the best stock ideas from the best hedge fund managers themselves. We started publishing our monthly activist strategyâs stock picks in March 2017. So far, the best stock pick of this strategy was Tabula Rasa Healthcare pitched by a healthcare hedge fund manager.
We first profiled this hedge fund manager in a March 2013 Marketwatch article titled [3 Stock Picks From The Next David Einhorn]( . I quantitatively analyzed the historical returns of this fund manager, interviewed him, and tracked the performance of his best ideas before dubbing him "The Next David Einhorn".
You probably never heard his name on CNBC or Bloomberg: Michael Castor of Sio Capital.
Michael Castor is a medical doctor (he used to be a surgeon) by training, but switched to finance in mid 2000. He worked as a health-care analyst at JPMorgan and Bernstein Investment Research and Management until he launched Sio Capital in 2006. At that time Sio Capital returned 10.4% a year since its inception vs. 3.8% average annual gain for the S&P 500 Total Return Index during the same period.
We liked Michael Castor because he achieved a 6.6 percentage-point outperformance with a nearly market neutral portfolio. Sio Capital's beta was 0.15 since inception. Sio Capital was also 12% net short in 2012, yet it returned 14.9% after fees and expenses.
Michael Castor shared three investment ideas with us in late February 2013. We shared those ideas in the Marketwatch article. First idea was Cardinal Health (CAH). It went up more than 100% over the following 2 years. Guess what? This was also Castor's worst performing pick among the three he shared with us.
The second investment idea that Castor shared with us was NPS Pharma (NPS). It was trading below $8 at the time. This stock was taken over by Shire for $46 in less than 2 years. A return of nearly 500%!!
The third investment idea that we shared in that Marketwatch article was Anacar Pharma (ANAC). Anacor was trading at $3.27 on the day we interviewed Michael Castor. In 2016 Pfizer took over Anacor for $99.25 per share in cash.
It returned a whopping 2900%!!! Who would have a guessed an ordinary Marketwatch article would reveal three market crushing stock picks. This article shows that it may be possible to identify truly talented hedge fund managers in advance.
This is just the beginning of the story.
In June 2013, we interviewed Michael Castor one more time and published this interview in the first issue of our monthly newsletter. You can [download a free copy of this newsletter here]( .
Michael Castor picked two stocks in that interview. The first stock is Rockwell Medical (RMTI) which was trading at $4.09 at the time we published the newsletter. Nobody had any respect for Castor's stock picks at that time. Rockwell Medical went down to $3.4 within a month, so investors had plenty of opportunities to buy this stock cheaply. Rockwell Medical took off after July and Castor sold this stock at around $8 for a 100% return.
The second stock Castor picked in June 2013 was Mazor Robotics (MZOR). This stock was trading at $11.35 when Castor recommended it and it went up as high as $25 in less than a year. Castor also sold this stock at low $20s for a gain of 100%.
After these picks succeeded we had a few subscribers thanking us. One of them sent us a bottle of expensive wine. Unfortunately nobody has a 100% betting average in investing. In September Michael Castor picked Aratana Therapeutics (PETX) when it was trading at $15. The stock quickly climbed all the way up to $28. However, Castor never told us to exit this stock pick and We stopped recommending the stock at $6. A loss of 60%.
One of the best picks of Michael Castor came in mid December 2013: Furiex (FURX). Furiex was trading at $40 at the time. By early February it jumped above $100 and was later taken over by Forest Labs for $105. A gain of 160%.
Over the years we shared several of Michael Castorâs stock picks in our monthly newsletter. The worst performing ones were Quotient Ltd (QTNT), down 80%, Harvard Apparatus (HART) down 70%, Ignyta Inc (RXDX) down 50%, Neos Therapeutics (NEOS) down 30%, and a couple of other stocks that were down less than 10%. Castorâs Agile Therapeutics (AGRX) pick returned 90% and Pfenex (PFNX) pick returned 65%. Overall, though, his average returns are extremely good.
For the last 1.5 years, we had Michael Castorâs Tabula Rasa Healthcare (TRHC) stock pick in our monthly activist newsletterâs recommendation list. The stock was trading at $14 when we launched this newsletter. We recommended selling TRHC in September when the stock was trading at nearly $80.
Overall, our activist newsletter returned 56% since its inception, vs. a gain of 20% for the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Michael Castorâs hedge fund is also doing very well this year. It is up 26.5% vs. a nearly flat equity market.
In the last issue of our activist newsletter, we revealed the name of Michael Castorâs new top stock pick. Interestingly, this stock is recommended in the latest issue of our quarterly newsletter in August as well.
You have to subscribe to our monthly newsletter to find out. Right now we have a [promotion going on]( . You can subscribe to both of our quarterly and monthly newsletters for only $399/year. If you subscribe to both newsletters separately it costs $898/year. You save more than 55% by signing up today. This is a limited time offer and expires on Tuesday. [Sign up NOW]( .
As a thank you gift just for being a reader, I am going to share another healthcare stock that is currently recommended by both our quarterly newsletter and monthly activist newsletter. We prepared a special FREE edition of our monthly newsletter and shared a lengthy analysis of this healthcare stock. We also shared the quantitative analysis of Warren Buffettâs historical stock picks in this free report. You can download it [here](.
Our promotional rate expires on Wednesday. [Sign up NOW]( .
Best Wishes
Inan Dogan, PhD
Research Director
Insider Monkey
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