Early election dilemma for Sunak

The Independent's Morning Headlines email [The Independent]( August 09, 2023 [View online](   [Morning Headlines]( 1 /[Early election dilemma for Rishi Sunak as economists warn of recession]( [Rishi Sunak](’s dilemma over whether to call an early election has deepened after economists warned the UK is likely to be plunged into [recession]( at the end of next year. A report by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (Niesr) published on Wednesday warned there was “a roughly 60 per cent risk of a recession at the end of 2024”. The prediction means the economy could take another hit just as the prime minister plans to go to the country. Under election rules, the next contest has to be called no later than January 2025. Niesr’s modelling is likely to give weight to senior Tory voices calling for Mr Sunak to go to the polls earlier – perhaps in May next year when local elections are to be held.   2 /[Water firms face £800m legal action after ‘underreporting sewage discharges’]( Six companies, including Thames Water and Severn Trent Water, could end up paying over £800mn to millions of customers if these claims are successful 3 /[UK launches crackdown on sanctions-busting by Russia’s allies]( Biggest ever UK action on military suppliers in third countries comes after dramatic plea from Ukraine’s first lady in interview with Independent TV 4 /[Lee Anderson branded ‘pound shop Powell’ – but won’t apologise for ‘f*** off back to France’ remark]( Deputy Tory chair tells GB News host Nigel Farage his ‘furious’ remark was not in bad taste 5 /[Lauren James apologises after World Cup red card]( The England star apologised to Nigeria’s Michelle Alozie after her sending off in the Women’s World Cup last-16 THE BIG QUESTION [Heat sickness, snakes and then a typhoon - how did the World Scout Jamboree turn into a disaster?]( More than 40,000 young people from across the world had been fundraising for months, excitedly counting down the days until the World Scout Jamboree kicked off in [South Korea]( on the first day of August. The attendees had been promised a “once-in-a-lifetime” experience, involving fun activities and new friends at the first global scout gathering since the pandemic. The World Organization of the Scout Movement (WOSM) added that the theme this year, ‘Draw your Dream’, was about the Scouts making “their Jamboree dreams come true in a safe environment”. Instead, the event soon turned into a nightmare. Extreme heat resulted in hundreds of participants being taken ill, with snakes under beds and giant mosquitoes among the other challenges faced by the young scouting hopefuls. It all proved too much for the British contingent, who pulled their 4,000 participants from the campsite for the safety of the capital Seoul. 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[Read more]( QUOTE OF THE DAY “It is imperative that officers, staff and their families and friends understand how seriously this breach is being taken, and that the board is determined to fulfil its oversight and challenge functions appropriately.” – Mike Nesbitt, the Ulster Unionist Party representative on the Policing Board of Northern Ireland, has called for an emergency meeting of the board on Wednesday in response to a major [data]( breach involving personal details of every officer of the Police Service of Northern Ireland ([PSNI]() which has left staff fearing for their safety. 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