Air fares are soaring: will they ever come back down to Earth?

Simon Calder’s Travel Week [SUBSCRIBE]( [SUBSCRIBE: £1 FOR 3 MONTHS]( January 20, 2023 [View in browser](   [The Independent]( [The Independent]( Why are air fares so darn expensive? At [our latest online event for The Independent]( on Tuesday, that was a key question. By the following morning, official inflation statistics revealed flight prices had risen by a record 44 per cent in December. Pot of gold: aircraft at London Heathrow Airlines’ costs have increased significantly as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting spike in energy prices. All carriers are paying more to fill their tanks: the jet fuel price is one-third higher than a year ago, before the invasion. On flights between Europe and Asia, the closure of Russian and Ukrainian airspace has pushed up journey times and therefore fuel consumption. The most direct track from London to Tokyo involves flying over Russia for six hours. This link, and many others, are taking hours longer. Higher costs make airlines reluctant to reinstate flights to pre-pandemic levels. The supply of available seats seems stuck at around 85 per cent of 2019 numbers while demand surges like never before. Over Christmas and New Year, millions of us sought to make up for lost family visits, sunshine or skiing after the two previous festive seasons were largely scuppered by Covid travel restrictions. Predictably, fares soared. To fly back from my New Year visit to Egypt, I paid a personal-worst £440 (not including baggage) for a one-way flight on easyJet from Hurghada to Gatwick. Air fares will stay annoyingly high until two things happen: - The surge in demand abates, possibly accelerated by the weakening UK economy. No sign of that yet: last weekend, Ryanair sold two million tickets, which I calculate as filling one plane every 15 seconds. - Airlines get greedy and expand rapidly to try to cash in on high fares. Even with increased costs, many carriers are making prodigious profits. After two miserable years, they are finally basking in a glorious flood of ticket revenue. Their reflex: to put on more flights and exploit the demand. Happily for the traveller, added seats will subtract from fares. Domestic fares will look more appealing than ever when [Air Passenger Duty for flights within the UK is halved on 1 April](. A foolish move, says my non-flying colleague Helen Coffey. The losers will be the rail firms, particularly on the East Coast main line: by far the biggest inter-city flight pair is London-Edinburgh. Besides surrendering an estimated £58m in tax revenue from domestic flyers, [the government is encouraging a move away from the highly successful state-run train operator, LNER](. An interesting move, given (in all senses) the climate. [How did the top four UK airports perform in 2022?](   [Get inspired...]( [Travel positive]( From new sleeper trains to phasing out domestic flights, our new sustainable trips column highlights the latest breakthroughs [I'm an image]( Cambodian cool]( How this Southeast Asian nation is hoping to become a shining beacon of responsible travel [I'm an image]( [Swede dreams]( The ultimate city guide to Malmö, Sweden’s trendy coastal hub   Enjoying this newsletter? Unlock unlimited, ad-free reading on the website and in The Independent app when you subscribe – plus, benefit from our [welcome offer when you join today](.   Tip of the week: Check whether to renew your passport now Prices for UK passports increase on 2 February. Even if you have months of validity left, [you might choose to renew ahead of time](. The cost of owning a passport is currently 2.07p per day. If you renew on or before 1 February you will save £7 on the price thereafter. That represents 338 days of passport ownership. All other things being equal (which they very rarely are in travel), I calculate that it is theoretically worthwhile renewing now if your passport expires before 7 January 2024. [What exactly are the rules for British passport holders to the EU?]( PICK OF THE WEEK: SINGAPORE The fascinating city-state of Singapore serves up all kinds of adventures. Whether you’re drawn to culture and cuisine, or nature and wellness, vibrant Singapore will help you see the world differently. So what are you waiting for? Deal of the week: 40% off train tickets in Wales Shrewd train operators are cutting fares sharply to stimulate travel. On Transport for Wales (TfW) trains, Advance tickets for journeys over 50 miles [are available at a 40 per cent discount](. The flagship service from Cardiff via Newport, Hereford, Wrexham, Chester and Bangor to Holyhead is selling at just £21.90 one-way on a range of dates. Railcard discounts apply, reducing this fare to £14.45. Pwllheli to Birmingham is £15.90 (or £10.45 with a railcard). Book online by 29 January, travel between 30 January and 5 March 2023. TfW is unaffected by the next train drivers’ strikes on 1 and 3 February, though some services may be busy because of cancellations by other operators. [Snap up an affordable British break to these Welsh hotspots](   Question of the week: Should we cancel our Thailand trip? Q We are booked to fly to Thailand, but we are worried about the surge of Covid-19 after China eased its rules. Would you go? A Like a shot. There are few better places to be in January than Southeast Asia. Thailand’s beaches, cities and landscapes always comprise travel temptation in the depths of the British winter. There is no doubt that [the Covid-19 crisis in China is severe](: the life science data analytics firm Airfinity predicts infections in the People’s Republic will reach 4.8 million a day this month, with tragic fatality figures. At the same time, China has just opened its borders for citizens who wish to travel abroad. They will now be able to travel as tourists, and millions will want to take holidays in Thailand to celebrate some freedom after three years of draconian restrictions. But for anyone from the UK who has kept up with Covid vaccinations and is not in a high-risk group, I believe the chance of winter sunshine in Thailand should be seized. You will enjoy much more of an outdoor lifestyle than in deep-freeze Britain. [How to make the most of Thailand – our latest guide]( STAT OF THE WEEK 330 Number of destinations served from Frankfurt, the world’s best-connected airport [according to research by Cirium for The Independent]( What you might have missed... - Powerful passports: [These are the countries with the best travel documents in the world]( - Nepal tragedy: [13th fatal plane crash in 13 years in mountain kingdom]( - Rail peace? [Improved offer made by train operators to RMT union]( SIMON'S DIARY       Every day from Monday to Friday I tackle a top travel story, or explore a topic in more detail than usual in ‘Simon Calder's Independent Travel Podcast’ – available free on [Spotify](, [Apple Podcasts](, [Pocket Casts]( or [Acast](.         Every day from Monday to Friday I tackle a top travel story, or explore a topic in more detail than usual in ‘Simon Calder's Independent Travel Podcast’ – available free on [Spotify](, [Apple Podcasts](, [Pocket Casts]( or [Acast](.         I find the easiest way to rush out stories is to tweet them. It’s also an easy way to contact me. My direct messages are open and I read all DMs, though regrettably I can’t respond to every one. Let me know your thoughts [@SimonCalder](         I find the easiest way to rush out stories is to tweet them. It’s also an easy way to contact me. My direct messages are open and I read all DMs, though regrettably I can’t respond to every one. 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