How safety became a pivotal issue in the rail row

Simon Calder’s Travel Week [SUBSCRIBE]( [SUBSCRIBE: £6 FOR 6 MONTHS]( December 09, 2022 [View in browser](   [The Independent]( [The Independent]( As in life, so in travel: safety is the top priority. Although a daily cyclist and occasional skier, I focus avidly on safe transport. Staying safe: Network Rail worker and CrossCountry train at Tamworth in Staffordshire A good metric to evaluate safety is a “micromort”: a one-in-a-million chance of dying. To compare modes of transport, you need to look at how many miles of travel goes to make a micromort. Accident rates across the world vary hugely, but these are the numbers given to me by “Professor Risk”: [Sir David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University](. Just six miles on a motorcycle produces a one-on-a-million chance of a fatal accident. It takes cyclists and pedestrians 17 miles to reach that one-in-a-million risk, though of course bikers and hkers tend to travel much more slowly and cover less ground. The car looks much safer at 250 miles per micromort. But compared with driving, rail and air are “staggeringly safe,” according to Sir David. Risk for train travellers and airline passengers could be measured in nanomorts: a one-in-a-billion chance of dying. Even then the scores are difficult to compute because accidents are, thankfully, so rare. The last time a UK airline was involved in a fatal crash was in the 1980s (the [Lockerbie bombing](). On the railways, a passenger and two crew members died in the awful [Stonehaven derailment]( in north-east Scotland in 2020. Another train traveller lost her life in 2007 in the [Grayrigg derailment](. But in those past 15 years, tragically more than 30,000 people have lost their lives on the road of Britain. The professionals who work on the railway and in the skies are obsessive about safety, and we should celebrate their devotion. The reason I dwell on mortality on a Friday morning is because safety is now part of the intractable rail dispute, which is set to make life tough for millions of travellers over the next four weeks. As I stepped safely from a train at Durham station last Sunday afternoon, I learnt that the pay offer tabled by the train operators to the RMT union was contingent on “a move to DOO”. Driver Only Operation is the most toxic topic on the rail industrial relations agenda. The Rail Delivery Group (RDG) was leant on by the government to make expansion of DOO a condition of the settlement. The negotiating team must have known [the whole proposal would be instantly rejected by the RMT](, which maintains: “Driver Only Operation will make our railways less safe, secure and accessible.” The RDG counters by saying the practice is “already present across 45 per cent of services carrying 55 per cent of passengers, and has been running safely for almost 40 years”. One thing we can agree on: the condition, which popped out of nowhere, guaranteed that [12 days of rail strikes will go ahead](. When hostilities resume on Tuesday, 13 December, more travellers will be forced on to the roads. Next time either side in this miserable row plays the safety card, remember this: taking trains away from the travelling public puts them at much more risk. [Read our regularly updated guide to all the Christmas and New Year strikes on the railways and at UK airports](   [Get inspired...]( In Bruges]( How to spend the perfect Christmassy long weekend in this prettiest of Medieval Belgian cities [I'm an image]( First tracks]( All aboard: the best European ski resorts you can reach by rail [I'm an image]( [Winter sun]( Our pick of balmy destinations to escape the cold this December   Enjoying this newsletter? Unlock unlimited, ad-free reading on the website and in The Independent app when you subscribe – plus, benefit from our [welcome offer when you join today](.   Tip of the week: First Class ends on Southeastern This weekend First Class is axed by [Southeastern]( in its trains between London, Kent and East Sussex. According to the rail firm, only 28 passengers have bought First Class annual season tickets since the coronavirus pandemic (and they will now be refunded the difference) and that more travellers will get a seat this way. The change takes place overnight on Saturday. Southeastern tells me the last service ever with First will be the 12.40am on Sunday morning from Victoria to Gillingham. Later that day, on the 6.33am from Tonbridge to Strood and all subsequent trains, Standard Class passengers may self-upgrade to the posh seats (and plug in their phones and laptops) at no extra charge. [How to get First Class rail for only a fraction more than Standard](   Deal of the week: First Class for £5 on ScotRail In Scotland, First Class is thriving on many longer-distance services, and you can upgrade on board any [ScotRail]( train with First Class for a flat £5 – subject to space being available. The offer runs until 31 January 2023, but be warned that ScotRail services will be greatly reduced by the next RMT strikes, from 13-17 December and 3-7 January. [Great rail journeys around the world, from Scotland to Patagonia](   Question of the week: UK Border Force strike Q Will departures from Heathrow on 23 December be affected by the passport strike? A The Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union has announced [industrial action by UK Border Force staff]( from 23 December until the end of the year, with the exception of 27 December. Walk-outs will take place at six airports. These include the three busiest in Britain: Heathrow and Gatwick, serving London, plus Manchester. Also affected will be Birmingham, Cardiff and Glasgow airports. The government, airports and airlines are working on contingency arrangements, which will see military personnel brought in to check passports. However, servicemen and women will be no substitute for the highly professional and experienced UK Border Force staff. Passports are not checked when leaving the UK, and so in theory there is no impediment to your outbound journey. But Heathrow is a busy airport with constrained space and little slack in the system at the best of times. It is possible that long queues could build up, leading to passengers being held on planes rather than disembarking. Those aircraft generally turn around to depart in as little as an hour. If the incoming passengers are still on board, the planes are not going anywhere. Were this to happen, crowds would build up in the departures area and the airport would soon run out of gates for arriving flights – possibly triggering cancellations and diversions. So it is possible that some flights will be culled ahead of time to reduce the risk of chaos leading to on-the-day cancellations. Your airline will inform you as soon as possible if your flight is affected, and is obliged to get you to your destination as soon as possible; this could be tricky over Christmas. [The busiest days for arrivals in all the strike-hit airports]( STAT OF THE WEEK 9 Total percentage pay increase offered by Network Rail to negotiators from the RMT. The union has put the proposal to a referendum of members, but with a recommendation to reject it. [Our comprehensive guide to Christmas rail engineering work]( What you might have missed... - Halfway to paradise: [British Airways jet turns round five hours into Gatwick-Mauritius flight due to technical issue]( - Bali ban:[How will strict new sex laws in Indonesia affect tourists?]( - Distant friends: [13 strangers take impromptu road trip when flight is cancelled]( SIMON'S DIARY       Every day from Monday to Friday I tackle a top travel story, or explore a topic in more detail than usual in ‘Simon Calder's Independent Travel Podcast’ – available free on [Spotify](, [Apple Podcasts](, [Pocket Casts]( or [Acast](.         Every day from Monday to Friday I tackle a top travel story, or explore a topic in more detail than usual in ‘Simon Calder's Independent Travel Podcast’ – available free on [Spotify](, [Apple Podcasts](, [Pocket Casts]( or [Acast](.         I find the easiest way to rush out stories is to tweet them. It’s also an easy way to contact me. My direct messages are open and I read all DMs, though regrettably I can’t respond to every one. Let me know your thoughts [@SimonCalder](         I find the easiest way to rush out stories is to tweet them. It’s also an easy way to contact me. My direct messages are open and I read all DMs, though regrettably I can’t respond to every one. Let me know your thoughts [@SimonCalder](         Each Saturday and Sunday I take questions live at 5.30pm British time on Instagram Live – from wherever I happen to be in the world – so please do come and say hello. Follow me on [@Simon_Calder](         Each Saturday and Sunday I take questions live at 5.30pm British time on Instagram Live – from wherever I happen to be in the world – so please do come and say hello. Follow me on [@Simon_Calder](         Or you can find me on TikTok. Come and have a look at what I have been up to as I bring you top travel topics and report on the latest changes in a minute or less via [@caldertravel](         Or you can find me on TikTok. Come and have a look at what I have been up to as I bring you top travel topics and report on the latest changes in a minute or less via [@caldertravel](   INDYBEST / [TRAVEL BEST BUY]( [10 best sleeping bags for camping, festivals and trekking adventures]( From kids’ options to cocoons for two, these will ensure the happiest of campers. [Click here for the full list](   Essential reading [Goodbye to the 11am kick-out? 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