Should England have tried to go their own way?

The Independent’s football newsletter [View in browser]( [The Independent]( June 25, 2021 [The Independent]( Reading the Game Written by Miguel Delaney Euro 2020 gets real [Oscars image]( Around St George’s Park, you could already sense the mood change. Marcus Rashford was put up for interview with media on Thursday and it wasn’t as easy-going as before. That isn’t to say he wasn’t relaxed or content, but implicit in every word is that Euro 2020 is about to get a lot harder. This is where it gets real. This is where the tournament really begins. That isn’t to do down the group stages. They have been magnificently entertaining, as indicated by the fact this is the highest scoring opening round we’ve ever seen in terms of goal rate. But there’s another figure that reflects how that was relatively superficial entertainment - at least in a purely sporting sense. The last 16 features the 15 highest ranked European sides, with the only aberration proving Czech Republic coming in for Poland - hardly much of a shock. The only real surprise from the opening round at all was that Spain finished second rather than first. In terms of the sporting outcome of the tournament, then, the opening round was almost entirely superfluous. That isn’t to discount the dizzying emotions we did enjoy from some great football, but the last 16 is arguably Euro 2020 as it should have been, and as the competition used to. There will be deeper emotions for more of the teams because it brings real jeopardy. England, for one, have to go from strangely bloodless games to potentially the most sudden of deaths. The big question is whether they’re ready for the switch. The tournament certainly takes a turn. *** If you’ll permit the indulgence, and the nerdery, the Euro 2020 group stage reminds of that internet theory about Indiana Jones. The argument goes that the actual plot of Raiders of the Lost Ark would have been totally unchanged if Indiana wasn’t in the film. The bad guys would have got the ark and opened it and still died. It is someway similar with these Euros. The 16 here would have been unchanged had they not changed the format. The best have got through. The group stage made no material difference. Of course, Indiana Jones isn’t really about the ark but about the emotions the film brings out. It is the same with competitions like this. *** For all the debate about whether it was better for England to finish first or second in the group, it seems we have a clear answer. There is a clear split in the knock-out round. It is entirely lopsided. Of the seven teams that had been generally seen as favourites before the competition began, five find themselves on one route. Of the two on the other side - Germany and England - one is now going out. England have a real chance there, to go with the feeling that this is a good time to play Germany. That isn’t to say the game will be that easy, though. By contrast, it is the tie of the round, as big as you can get. Only Belgium-Portugal comes close, although that doesn’t have the same gravitas or history, even if there is a fair argument it is higher quality. The fact so many of the big sides are crashing against each other may also clear the way for another surprise finalist in this competition. All of Sweden, Ukraine, Wales and Denmark should be looking at that side of the draw with the same sense of opportunity as England. *** Knock-out tournaments are much more unpredictable than leagues, as the last Euros gloriously proved, but there is still some value in trying to rank the teams to figure out who at least has the best chance. With that in mind, here are mine so far, based on performance, form and who seems capable of going to the highest level. Germany again went from extreme to extreme, this from the excellence of their attacking against Portugal to the chaos of their defending against Hungary. It means they’re just hard to rely on, so drop out of the top five here. Spain meanwhile looked so much better as the goals finally flowed against Slovakia, and there is the argument that playing better sides suits them as the games are more open. 1. France 2. Belgium 3. Italy 4. England 5. Spain *** My team of the opening round: 1. Kasper Schmeichel 2. Denzel Dumfries 3. Leonardo Spinazzola 4. Matthijs de Ligt 5. Leonardo Bonucci 6. Paul Pogba 7. Cristiano Ronaldo 8. Manuel Locatelli 9. Romelu Lukaku 10. Kevin De Bruyne 11. Georginio Wijnaldum Top stories [Euro 2020 power rankings]( [Which Germany will turn up against England at Euro 2020?]( Miguel’s Dispatches When the press arrive at England’s base in St George’s Park, you all have to take an antigen test - after so many other layers of security - in order to be allowed in. There’s usually a patio bench there for media to do a bit of work, but on Thursday those arriving found it was gone. We initially thought it was due to more Covid restrictions. Not quite. It was taken so players and staff could socially distance for the Ed Sheeran concert. Quote of the day “Our main focus is to win the game, but if we do it gets put in history. That's how great teams are remembered for many, many years.” Marcus Rashford on the big game Reading the game quiz Ten German players have scored against England in official tournament games. Name them, as well as the one who scored twice. (Last newsletter's answers: Oliver Bierhoff, Zinedine Zidane, David Trezeguet, Traianos Dellas) Essential reading [Euro 2020: What the numbers tell us after group stage]( [Expert picks the best photographs from Euro 2020 so far]( If you can spare a minute we’d love your [feedback]( on our newsletters. 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