Also included, is why we should not think about the recession, for now. The Revolution Has Begun: Are You Ready?  Discover the hidden gem that could change the future of investing forever. [ > Click here now if youâre ready]( By clicking the link above you agree to periodic updates from WealthPress and its partners [(privacy policy)](  Why We Shouldn't Worry About Recession, Yet [Image]  Hello Stock Traders  You know that economic apocalypse we've all been waiting for, like some financial version of 'Game of Thrones'? Well, it didn't happen in the first quarter. And guess what? The second quarter is looking pretty sunny too. On Thursday, the Commerce Department released its latest blockbuster, stating that our real (read: inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a rate of 1.1% in Q1. Sure, it's not as high as Q4's 2.6%, or even the 2% that those fortune tellers... I mean, economists, had forecasted. But let's call it what it is - a solid report. Earlier in the week, we had a couple of curveballs thrown our way. On Monday, new benchmarks for retail sales figures suggested a bit of a slow dance in consumer spending growth. On Wednesday, a durable goods report hinted at a weakening in business investment. These signaled that Q1 GDP might not meet economists' estimates. But, as Bob Ross used to say, "we don't make mistakes, just happy little accidents."  And, in this case, our happy accident was that consumer spending grew at a 3.7% annual rate last quarter, outdoing Q4's 1%. Business investment also decided to join the party, albeit modestly. The primary party pooper on the GDP front was a swing lower in inventories, which nicked 2.26 percentage points off growth. But you know what they say, every cloud has a silver lining. In this case, if businesses decide to keep their inventory levels steady, they might need to crank up production to keep up with demand. Another potential lifesaver for current-quarter GDP is our dear old friend, the housing market. Sure, it's still as messy as a teenager's room, but it's not as catastrophic as it was last fall.  Yet, there are some monsters under our economic bed. The failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, the after-effects of the Federal Reserve's rate-raising spree, and potential layoffs from big companies that might seep into the rest of the job market. But until now, these monsters are more like whispers in the wind. In fact, the Labor Department just reported that initial claims for unemployment last week fell to 230,000, which is quite low compared to pre-pandemic standards. So, even if consumers decide to slow their shopping sprees a bit, the job market is still handing out the dollars for them to spend. This should keep our economy bobbing along for a while. And remember, folks, the GDP isn't the be-all and end-all of economic health. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the guys who've been calling the shots on U.S. downturns since before the government even started tracking GDP, consider an array of measures like employment, industrial production, and consumer spending. So, yes, a downturn might be coming. But for now, it seems like we're still riding the economic roller coaster upward. As they say, "Winter is coming"... but not just yet.  Trade safe!  -James  Coming Up Next: Looking for stocks to hoard for future riches? Find out in the article below!    SPONSORED ð½ Sponsored
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[Privacy Policy/Disclosures]( Future-Proofing Your Portfolio: Stocks to Load Up Now So, let's get this straight. There's been quite the chit-chat lately about a potential recession hitting the US. Now, if that doesn't make your eyebrows go up, I don't know what will. It's a pretty grim prospect, but as they say, when life gives you lemons, you make lemonade. So, what's the lemonade for investors here? Think out-of-the-box, get crafty with your portfolio allocation, and start eyeing those growth-oriented sectors. And hey, don't just look in your backyard â consider the whole world your playground. I know, I know, it's a daunting task, but luckily for us, Goldman Sachs has done a bulk of the heavy lifting. David Kostin, the firm's chief US equity strategist, is pointing towards the East, specifically China. With China easing off its zero-COVID lockdown policies, we might just be on the brink of a commodities boom. And who doesn't love a good boom, right? Voices from the International Monetary Fund and Bloomberg are chiming in too, estimating that China might be the MVP this year, contributing more than 22% of total global economic growth. So, if you're wondering where to place your bets, Kostin suggests the metal and mining sectors might be the place to be. Why? Well, it seems China's got a bit of a craving for industrial metals like aluminum and copper, and this demand could send global metal prices soaring. And guess who stands to benefit from that? Yep, US mining companies. Emily Chieng, one of Goldman's mining industry gurus, is running with this theory, hand-picking metal stocks that could potentially strike gold in this commodities boom. Let's kick things off with Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), an old hand in the mining business and a bigwig in the flat-rolled steel market in the US. Its diverse portfolio of steel products is nothing to sneeze at, and it's got a strong foothold in the production of automotive-grade steel products. Now, you might be thinking: "Okay, but how does Cleveland-Cliffs benefit from China's economic growth?" Well, the answer lies in the company's mining capabilities. Not only does it produce iron ore, but it also mines coking coal, turning raw coal into a critical ingredient for steel-making. So, when China's demand for industrial metals soars, guess who's ready to ride the wave with increased global metal prices? You got it, Cleveland-Cliffs. Despite a decrease in revenues and earnings in recent quarters, the company has managed to beat expectations. Their latest release for 1Q23 showed a top line of $5.3 billion â an 11% drop from last year, sure, but still $90 million above analyst expectations. Even their bottom line non-GAAP EPS of 11 cents, while a far cry from the $1.50 reported in 1Q22, managed to outdo the forecast by a penny. It's like the underdog in a sports movie, right? Oh, and let's not forget the company's commitment to paying down its short-term revolver debt. They even announced the closure of an offering of unsecured guaranteed notes, totaling $750 million, due in 2030, at a 6.75% annual rate. The net proceeds from this offering will be used to repay revolver credit borrowings. Now that In case you're still with me (and I bet you're wondering why you've dived this deep into financial analysis while sipping your favorite drink), let's talk about our final big name: Alcoa (AA). If you're into shiny things, you might recognize Alcoa. These Pittsburgh-based folks are a big deal in the aluminum production industry. They whip up everything from primary aluminum to fabricated aluminum and alumina products. Their handiwork goes into a smorgasbord of stuff, from cars and bikes to spacecraft and even your favorite cookware. Now, let's not sugar-coat it: the big A has been dealing with some economic turbulence (cue the airplane jokes). Inflation, interest rates, and supply chain hullabaloo have all thrown a wrench into the production costs. But here's the kicker: Alcoa is still turning a profit. Heck, they've even got the smallest carbon footprint in their industry, so you can feel good about that frying pan! Alcoa's recent 1Q23 earnings were a mixed bag. They pulled in $2.67 billion, which was down almost 19% year-over-year and fell short of forecasts by $90 million. The bottom line EPS was a net loss of 23 cents per share, not exactly the break-even situation the Street was predicting. Looking forward, the company is bracing for a $115 million increase in energy and raw material costs, but they're also expecting an uptick in the prices they get for alumina and aluminum. Here's the good news, though: Alcoa's EBITDA topped $1 billion in 1Q23, which is a company record. And they ended the quarter with a whopping $1.1 billion in cash. They've got the resources to weather an economic storm, like a financial umbrella, if you will. Chieng, our Goldman gal, is pretty gung-ho about Alcoa. She sees the company poised for growth despite the economic headwinds. She states, âWe continue to view AA positively, driven by (1) ~9% aluminum volume growth in the next two years (driven by production restarts) and (2) the companyâs leverage to aluminum price upside which remains the more important driver of the companyâs earnings profile; specifically, on our ~$2,700/t assumption for 2023, we estimate that the aluminum segment comprises ~75% of attributable EBITDA.â So, she's set a price target of $54 for Alcoa stock and given it a Buy rating. That means she sees an upside of 51% in the next year. So, what's the moral of this financial story? As the possibility of a U.S. recession looms, it's time to put on our thinking caps and consider how to play the markets. There's potential for big gains in metals and mining, especially with China's demand sparking a commodities boom. But, like a good rollercoaster ride, it's going to come with its share of thrills and chills. Make sure to keep your hands inside the car at all times, and enjoy the trip!   Disclaimer:  The material in this document is for informational purposes based on our proprietary research. It is not an offering, specific recommendation, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned or discussed herein.  Any performance results discussed herein represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance, and are not indicative of any specific investment.  Due to the timing of information presented, any investment performance reflected within this document may be adjusted after the publication and distribution of this material. There can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this communication will be profitable, be equal to any corresponding indicated historical performance levels or be suitable for your portfolio.  Any investment results set forth in this document are not net of expenses and execution costs, nor do they account for other relevant trading or investment fees. 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