David Solomon Interviews UN Secretary-General António Guterres...European Companies Navigating the Crisis...Measuring the Reopening of America

[Goldman Sachs]( [BRIEFINGS] May 13, 2020 Talks at GS with UN Secretary-General António Guterres Above (L to R): David Solomon of Goldman Sachs and António Guterres of the United Nations In leading the United Nations’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Secretary-General António Guterres emphasizes the broad human impact of the crisis. “In all these dimensions, there is a complexity—which is the human complexity,” Guterres said during a recent episode of Talks at GS moderated by Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. Among the particular complexities of this crisis is its impact on human rights, said Guterres, who pointed to the impact of lockdowns in some authoritarian states. “I hope these will not translate itself into a change in the relation between people and state institutions, especially in the areas where authoritarianism has been increasing in recent times.” Women are also disproportionately impacted by the crisis, Guterres said, noting: “There is a majority of women in the jobs that were lost.” He further added, “If you look at the situation of lockdowns and people at home, there has been a dramatic increase in domestic violence. We believe that the increase, depending on the situation in each society, can go from 10 or 15% to double.” Guterres called for a “comprehensive strategy of empowerment to change social relations in order for women to gain what they need and what they deserve to the benefit of the whole society.” [Watch video]( SHARE: [twitter]( [facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [email](mailto:?subject=Talks&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D4p9mWi7H_ug%26t%3D8s) The Daily Check-In With Goldman Sachs In a recent episode of The Daily Check-In With Goldman Sachs, [Richard Gnodde]( chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs International, discussed how business leaders in Europe are thinking about their corporate planning and decision-making in response to the economic downturn. In other episodes of The Daily Check-In, we heard from Goldman Sachs Investment Banking Division’s [James Sinclair]( on how the shutdown is driving the rapid adoption of telehealth technology and [Ben Frost]( on the impact of coronavirus on grocery stores, food supply chains and consumer demand. Goldman Sachs Research’s [Trina Chen]( also shared the trends she’s seeing in her team’s aggregated demand tracker of China, which measures that country’s recovery across a range of industrial and consumer data points, while [Ashish Shah]( co-chief investment officer for Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Global Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions business, discussed the wave of fallen angels in the debt markets. Finally, [Sam Morgan]( co-head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities Sales in EMEA, discussed why markets are robust despite challenging economic data. For more Daily Check-In videos, subscribe to our [channel on YouTube](. SHARE: [twitter]( [facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [email](mailto:?subject=Daily%20Check-In&body=) How Are Small Businesses Surviving? Small businesses are in “fight-or-flight mode,” said Asahi Pompey, global head of Corporate Engagement and president of the Goldman Sachs Foundation, in the latest Exchanges at Goldman Sachs podcast. Pompey interviewed three graduates of the Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses program, who shared their experiences navigating short-term challenges, from qualifying for Paycheck Protection Program loans, to how they’re rethinking their business models—all while managing family responsibilities and the safety of their employees. “Being on the front lines serving our customers, one thing that really keeps me up at night is the health and safety of myself and our team members,” said Khari Parker, co-founder of Connie’s Chicken and Waffles in Baltimore. “Are they properly social distancing? Do they have a likelihood of getting COVID themselves?” Jennie Ripps, founder and CEO of Owl’s Brew, a New York-based beverage company that specializes in teas and botanical-based drinks, agreed that her priorities have shifted since the crisis. "It’s been incredibly important for me to understand my role as a leader. Normally I’m kind of a jack-of-all-trades—I do a little bit of this, a little bit of that. But right now what I need to be is a leader." Giving voice to the way small business owners are hustling around the clock for survival, Dana White, founder and CEO of Paralee Boyd, a blow-dry salon in Detroit, added, “I’ve applied to over 14 grants and three loans and a partridge in a pear tree...As a leader of your team in crisis, you have work to do. You have to steady the ship.” [Listen to podcast]( SHARE: [twitter]( [facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [email](mailto:?subject=Podcast&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldmansachs.com%2Finsights%2Fseries%2Fexchanges-at-goldman-sachs%2Findex.html) Measuring the Reopening of America With cities and states across the US beginning to ease lockdown restrictions, Goldman Sachs Research has introduced a new weekly series to measure the progress made toward economic recovery. The aptly named “GS US Reopening Scale” aggregates data indicative of life in quarantine (think at-home fitness app downloads, e-commerce deliveries, and alcohol sales) with data indicative of a return to normalcy (like restaurant traffic, box office receipts and airfare spend), ultimately arriving at a 1 to 10 measure of economic openness. The latest reading for the week of May 13 is unsurprisingly low at 1, with stay-at-home segments still seeing dramatic growth and many back-to-normal categories declining over 90%. “The picture is very one-sided at the moment, but we have started to see very early signs of a turn in metrics like gas demand, drive-to lodging, and seated dinners in some cities, and we hope that will soon be followed by more robust consumer and industrial data,” said Heath Terry, lead author of the report, who also describes the Reopening Scale in this [Daily Check-In video](. He’ll continue to monitor the data weekly (and we’ll provide updates [here](. SHARE: [twitter]( [facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [email](mailto:?subject=reopening&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldmansachs.com%2Finsights%2Fpages%2Fmeasuring-the-reopening-of-america-07-may-2020.html) May QuickPoll: Sentiment Worsens Amid Rerating of 2020 Growth Outlook Despite April’s strong equities performance, Goldman Sachs clients maintained their bearish views, with roughly two-thirds (63%) of those surveyed in the firm’s Marquee QuickPoll describing conditions as a bear market—though the majority believe the market has passed its lows. Here are some other highlights from the monthly poll: Downgrading 2020 Growth. Investors seem to have given up on a V-shaped recovery and now expect a much slower and longer one due, in part, to a lower rerating of the 2020 growth outlook. The percentage of respondents who now expect the SPX to end the year below 2,800 rose to 46% this month from 29% in early April. Narrow Base. One of the most notable features of the recent rally was its narrow base with tech stocks leading the gains. Indeed, one-fifth of the S&P 500’s market capitalization is accounted for by five big tech companies. Institutional investors, however, are not planning to chase the tech rally with 42% of those surveyed this month citing plans to buy defensive equities and companies with strong balance sheets instead. Positive on Crude. One of the bright spots is that investors appear to be more positive on crude oil with one-third (34%) of respondents expecting the price of crude oil to move higher this month. For more information about QuickPoll and Marquee, [reach out to the team](mailto:gs-marquee-sales@ny.email.gs.com?subject=Briefings%20Follow-Up%3A%20Interested%20in%20Learning%20More%20About%20Marquee&body=Briefings%20follow-up%3A%20I%20am%20interested%20in%20learning%20more%20about%20Marquee.). SHARE: [twitter]( [facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [email](mailto:?subject=May%20QuickPoll&body=) Goldman Sachs Media Highlights CNBC - May 8 [Why Goldman’s Jan Hatzius Believes Job Losses May Be Higher Than Reported]( (5:24) CNBC - May 7 [US-China trade tensions are a ‘renewed risk’ for markets: Goldman Sachs]( (2:57) Bloomberg - May 4 [Goldman’s Oppenheimer: Next Market Cycle Looks Like Last Bull Market]( (3:22) CNBC - May 1 [This pregnant Goldman Sachs trader says Wall Street will never be the same after the coronavirus]( [Subscribe]( [Unsubscribe]( The data provided in this newsletter is for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment or tax advice nor as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Goldman Sachs believes the data in this newsletter is accurate, but does not verify its accuracy independently and does not warrant or guarantee that it is accurate or complete. 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