2020 Global Economic Outlook...Talks at GS with Historian Rick Atkinson...Healthcare CEOs Steer Through Uncertainty

[Goldman Sachs]( [BRIEFINGS] November 26, 2019 Global Economic Outlook 2020: A Break in the Clouds The global slowdown that began in early 2018 is nearing an end, according to Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius, who forecasts 3.4% global GDP growth in 2020. The modest increase from 2019’s expected figure of 3.1% should be driven by easier financial conditions, a US-China trade détente, and reduced Brexit uncertainty. While many market participants continue to worry about recession, particularly with the US about to notch another year in its longest expansion on record, Hatzius views these fears as premature. The strong financial position of households and businesses across most advanced economies should keep recession risk at bay—amounting to just a 20% chance of a downturn for the US economy in the next 12 months vs. a consensus view of as much as 33%, according to Goldman Sachs Research. [Watch video & read report]( SHARE: [twitter]( [facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [email](mailto:?subject=Global%20Economic%20Outlook%202020%3A%20A%20Break%20in%20the%20Clouds&body= Talks at GS with Pulitzer Prize-Winning Historian Rick Atkinson Above: Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs and author Rick Atkinson Historian Rick Atkinson, best known for his Pulitzer Prize-winning trilogy on the liberation of Europe during World War II, has now set his sights on a much earlier liberation—the American Revolution. In a recent episode of Talks at GS, Atkinson talked with Goldman Sachs Chairman Emeritus Lloyd Blankfein about what he uncovered in the first volume of his new trilogy on the Revolution, The British Are Coming. In addition to a close look at strategies and battlefield tactics, Atkinson’s new book is a study in leadership, illustrated by the challenges George Washington endured in the early days of the war. “He had to learn what it was that these soldiers from Massachusetts and New Hampshire and Connecticut were sacrificing to be at his side,” Atkinson said. “Understanding of the mystical bond between leader and led… is vitally important,” he added. “It happens slowly. It’s ugly sometimes, but it does evolve into this relationship.” [Watch video]( SHARE: [twitter]( [facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [email](mailto:?subject=Talks%20at%20GS%20with%20Pulitzer%20Prize-Winning%20Historian%20Rick%20Atkinson&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldmansachs.com%2Finsights%2Ftalks-at-gs%2Frick-atkinson.html) Podcast: How Are Healthcare CEOs Steering Through Uncertainty? Healthcare CEOs in the US are “trying to set course in an otherwise unpredictable, highly uncertain world,” says Marshall Smith, global head of Goldman Sachs’ healthcare investment banking, in the latest episode of Exchanges at Goldman Sachs. That uncertainty stems from global growth concerns, trade policy risks and drug pricing debates, but healthcare companies aren’t sitting back and waiting for conditions to change. Amid a sluggish organic growth environment, M&A opportunities are top priorities for pharmaceutical executives, Smith explains, with “a ton of capital flowing into smaller and younger biotech companies” to bolster drug portfolios. There have also been several megamergers in the past year between large pharma companies, which Smith says are motivated by leadership teams wanting to “completely transform the composition of [their] business and change the next five to 10-year outlook and potentially offset some of these headwinds that the industry at large is facing.” [Listen to podcast]( SHARE: [twitter]( [facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [email](mailto:?subject=Podcast%3A%20How%20Are%20Healthcare%20CEOs%20Steering%20Through%20Uncertainty%3F&body=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.goldmansachs.com%2Finsights%2Fpodcasts%2Fepisodes%2F11-18-2019-smith.html) Briefly…on the Rise of Family Offices as an Investment Force Family offices have become one of the fastest-growing investors within the asset management industry. We sat down with Goldman Sachs’ Sara Naison-Tarajano, head of Apex, the firm’s dedicated family-office coverage team in the Consumer and Investment Management Division (CIMD), and Meena Flynn, CIMD’s global head of the Markets Solution Group and one of the partners leading the cross-divisional family-office initiative, who shared their perspectives on the industry. Apex recently hosted its second annual Family Office Symposium in New York. What were some of the key takeaways? Sara Naison-Tarajano: The goal of the symposium was to provide family-office CIOs and owners with content ranging from investing and macroeconomic trends, to trading and impact investing. Based on the responses of more than 140 attendees, investors were highly focused on direct investing, with two of the most popular sessions focused on investing in the private markets and investing in real estate. We also saw a lot of interest in topics focused on social impact investing, such as sustainable food systems. In fact, we estimate about one-third of family offices industrywide are now involved in impact investing, with interest in environmental, social and governance investing expected to increase as the next generation of family members assumes control. How do family offices fit within the world of asset management? What’s driving their growth? Sara Naison-Tarajano: Family offices have become an increasingly powerful force within asset management, especially in the private markets. A favorable macroeconomic backdrop, rising mergers-and-acquisition activity and increasing valuations in the private markets have spurred individuals to sell their businesses at attractive valuations, creating demand for advisory firms that work with family offices. Meanwhile, a growing number of hedge fund owners—faced with succession planning, hefty operational costs and other pressures—are returning outside capital and converting to family offices to manage their own funds. The desire to preserve family wealth and create a legacy through philanthropic giving is yet another catalyst. How are family offices emerging as an investing force? Sara Naison-Tarajano: As family offices increase in size and assets under management, they’ve become more institutional in their approach and are often competing directly with private equity investors, venture capital firms and pension funds for many of the same investment opportunities, often in the private markets. Some family offices are even taking in outside capital. Based on our experience, we’ve often found that the family-office owner tends to have experience and confidence in his or her ability to make transformative investment decisions, in part, because they’ve spent their lives building and running multi-million dollar businesses. As investors, they tend to be generalists, sector agnostic and opportunistic. In addition, because family offices don’t have to report to a board of directors, investor group or regulators, they’re able to be more flexible their investment approaches. [Learn about the firm's family-office initiative]( SHARE: [twitter]( [facebook]( [LinkedIn]( [email](mailto:?subject=Briefly%E2%80%A6on%20the%20Rise%20of%20Family%20Offices%20as%20an%20Investment%20Force&body= Goldman Sachs Media Highlights Business Insider - November 22 [Goldman Sachs just unveiled a new gender pronouns initiative as part of a broader inclusion push at the Wall Street firm]( Bloomberg - November 21 [Goldman Sachs CEO: Building a Digital Consumer Bank in the US]( (14:52) The Glass Hammer - November 21 [Voice of Experience: Stephanie Rader, Partner, Goldman Sachs Securities Division]( [Subscribe]( [Unsubscribe]( The data provided in this newsletter is for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment or tax advice nor as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. 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