Bitcoin Halving

What you need to know today ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ April 19, 2024 Bitcoin Halving “Every informed person needs to know about Bitcoin because it might be one of the world’s most important developments.” — Leon Luow, Nobel Peace Prize nominee [Reminder: In case you missed [our announcement]( The Essential Investor has merged with legacy contributors to Agora Financial. The new, larger, more inclusive project is called The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity. If you’re interested in the scope and benefits of our new endeavor, please see what prompted us to merge [here](. If you’ve been a member of The Essential Investor, keep an eye out for your new benefits.] Dear [Reader], April 19, 2024 – As we mentioned on Tuesday, the next “halving” for Bitcoin will happen today or tomorrow. The technology has been a subject of hopes, dreams, hand-wringing speculation… and some heartache. Here’s why the halving is important to speculators: After the 2012 halving, the price of Bitcoin rocketed from $12 to $1,161 — a gain of 9,575%. Following the 2016 halving, Bitcoin soared again from $600 to $20,000 for a gain of 3,233%. After 2020, Bitcoin again shot up from $9,000 to $69,000, a gain of 667%. Mark Jeftovic, [Bitcoin Capitalist]( Grey Swan Fraternity member, says he expects the halving to happen today. Below, he helps us see why this time the halving may be different. “We are in uncharted territory,” Mark says. “Bitcoin has never put in a fresh all-time high before the halving. It's done so three times before this one.” That said, “Bitcoin can reasonably be expected to 3X or 4X in the year after the halving. It could mean more this time because of the ETFs and the global financial system is increasingly coming unglued.” Enjoy ~ Addison P.S. Mark’s [Bitcoin Capitalist]( is closed to the public. But you’ll find an [exclusive offer for Grey Swan Fraternity]( below. CONTINUED BELOW... >>ADVERTISEMENT<< “Unprecedented” demand to send gold high One Wall Street trader just made [a big new gold prediction]( "Pay attention to physical demand for gold... the interest seen over the last week has been unprecedented." In fact, investors are now flooding into gold at a pace not seen since 2020. Keep in mind, that level of demand sent gold soaring above $2,300 for the first time ever. And yet our research is pointing to [an even bigger gold story](. CONTINUED... The Significance of The Halving Mark Jeftovic, [The Bitcoin Capitalist]( The Bitcoin blockchain is secured by "Proof-of-Work" (PoW) - which is known as "mining." In simple terms, it uses specialized computers (ASICs) which are optimized to solve a cryptographic math problem - a big one. The number of computations per second is measured in TerraHashes (TH/s). One TerraHash is a trillion computations. The current hashrate across the entire Bitcoin blockchain is 75K TH/s (75 thousand trillion computations per second). - For each block there is a particular puzzle that needs to be solved - they're all the same, but the value of the solution is different each time. - Each block contains the metadata for all the transactions that occurred on chain during that block period. - When a miner solves a block, it "wins" the right to append the next block to the blockchain. - That miner receives "the block reward" for that block (often sharing it with all the other miners in it's mining pool). - The new block is appended, cryptographically signed, and the rest of the miners confirm it. - The search begins for a new block. - This happens roughly every ten minutes. That's how the Bitcoin blockchain is built and maintained - we can park for now the weeping and wailing from those bemoaning how much electricity that uses (which is a lot) because the net benefit to humanity for having an immutable, decentralized, non-state hard money system is worth it (especially when you compare it to the energy used to enforce the fiat standard, globally). Is that every 210,000 blocks, that block reward is cut in half (hence, the "halving" or "halvening"). 210,000 blocks pencils out to about four years. It is this halving mechanism that creates the 21,000,000 BTC hard cap for Bitcoin. This halving - which by my calculations should happen on Friday - is the fourth bitcoin halving - and it will take the block reward down from 6.25 BTC now, to 3.125 afterwards (it started at 50, then 25 in 2012, 12.5 in 2016, 6.25 in 2020, and so on). In previous cycles this has set up a "supply shock" for the price of Bitcoin - driving prices higher. Sometimes mind-bogglingly so. This chart via ([@ChartsBTC]( shows it to us in logarithmic scale (because linear graphs can't even fit into the window). (Source: [ChartsBTC]( As I remarked in this month's issue of [The Bitcoin Capitalist]( Bitcoin seems to "add a digit" by the time it goes into each successive halving. At first glance, this may seem to be a superficial pattern, but it’s based on what happens when you measure something in a logarithmic scale. There’s another famous chart that shows the “progression of digits” that belies a logarithmic progression, and from an earlier chapter in monetary history, a rather famous one: (Source: [Wikipedia]( It becomes more plausible to suspect this progression will continue if we aren’t looking at Bitcoin’s price action as chart patterns that purportedly foretell the gyrations of an asset or a “hot stock”, but instead view it through the lens of a rather large, tectonic wealth transfer out of one monetary system and into another - shaped by the dynamics of the four year halving cycle. That happens to be the base case for [The Bitcoin Capitalist]( - we call it "the monetary regime change." Some other notes about this particular halving: - After this halving, Bitcoin's natural inflation rate will be below that of gold's (which is 2% per year). - In two more halvings the block reward will drop below 1 BTC per block. - By 2060, the total block rewards will be less than 1 BTC per day. What the above means, is this: If you’re a “whole-coiner” (somebody who owns an entire Bitcoin), then by 2032 you’ll own more Bitcoin than the entire mining network earns in subsidies for securing a single block. By 2060, you (or your children), will own more than the entire Bitcoin network earns in a day (in block subsidies). Also worth noting that there are more millionaires in the world now (approx. 60 million) than there will ever be Bitcoin. Which means, if every millionaire decided they wanted to own a single Bitcoin, there wouldn't be enough to go around. The last thing I'll say about this halving that makes it different from the prior cycles, is this: Bitcoin has never put in a new all-time high before the halving. The highs have always come a few months after. This time BTC has put in three all-time highs before the halving. The most recent at $73K/BTC almost exactly a month ago ~~ Mark Jeftovic So it goes, Addison Wiggin, The Wiggin Sessions P.S. If you’d like to learn more about the “best how” and the “best when” to buy Bitcoin, please inquire within, [here](. You’ll see a special offer extended to free Grey Swan members. “[The Bitcoin Capitalist]( no longer accepting new members from the public,” Mark wrote this morning. “However, Grey Swan Fraternity members are [more than welcome.]( (You can read about the story of the dollar, booms and busts, and the politics behind it all, in progression, from [Demise of the Dollar]( through [Financial Reckoning Day]( and onto [Empire of Debt]( all three books are available in their third post-pandemic editions.) (Or… simply pre-order [Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed]( now available at [Amazon]( and[Barnes & Noble]( or if you prefer one of these sites:[Bookshop.org]( [Books-A-Million]( or [Target]( Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: addison@greyswanfraternity.com. 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