Fake Terror, Fake Money

“If the only tool you have is a hammer…” ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ March 27, 2024 Fake Terror, Fake Money… Real Problems “If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.” – Abraham Maslow [Special Reminder: In case you missed [our recent announcement]( The Essential Investor has merged with legacy contributors to Agora Financial. The new, larger, more inclusive project is called The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity. If you’re interested in the scope and benefits of our new endeavor, please see what prompted us to merge [here](. If you’ve been a member of The Essential Investor, please keep an eye out for your new benefits.] Dear [Reader], March 27, 2024 – Yikes. Before we even had time to digest the news of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse here in Baltimore, the team at Paradigm had already begun a marketing campaign insinuating the accident was the result of a terror attack. As far as we can tell, it stemmed from a puzzling account of the incident written by Sean Ring who was at the time sitting in a cafe in Italy. Now, they’re apparently planning a webinar discussing the matter. Granted, a terror seminar is not nearly as bad as the X post I saw trying to pass off the Karch Bridge attack from months ago in the Ukraine war as the Key Bridge coming down. Or the U.S. military-industrial complex restraining itself from using the opportunity to extend its Patriot Act powers, as implied by Zero Hedge. Still, a candidate for governor in Utah seems to know a lot about the Key Bridge. He’s blaming diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies instituted by Maryland Governor Wes Brown. Neither Kate Middleton nor Kensington Palace appear to have had anything to do with the bridge collapse. But on the issue, they’ve remained mum. The port closure will cause some real supply chain issues. Baltimore sports the only drive-on/drive-off facility for auto imports on the east coast, for example. That’s going to cause a major headache for car dealers nationwide. Nearly half of the $55.2 billion of imports in 2023 were autos and light trucks. Another $4.8 billion of motor vehicles were exported. The port also exports 13% of India’s coal supply. That’ll be a problem for the electrical grid in Mumbai. Shares in Consol Energy, the coal exporter, dropped 10% on the news of the port closure. Shares in CXS Corp, the transport company, also fell, but look like they’ve recovered. Trains carrying coal from West Virginia will be primarily diverted to the already busy Norfolk, Virginia and New York/New Jersey areas. The C0ve Point Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) export facility, which we just discovered this morning is owned by the energy wing of Berkshire Hathaway, will not be affected by the crash. It’s upstream from the bridge. There will be disruptions in ingestible sugar and building supplies. The company that operates the Domino Sugar facility, famous for its giant neon light in the Inner Harbor, isn’t currently waiting for a shipment. But future imports will likely be delayed. Big retailers like Home Depot, Bob’s Furniture, IKEA, and Amazon all have to seek alternative ports for their goods for the foreseeable future. Which is in itself a problem… Many of the east coast ports are still recovering from supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic. So, diverted trade from Baltimore will add to delays and increase costs. This morning, there were some 30 barges stacked up in the Chesapeake Bay waiting for instructions as to which ports they’ve been diverted to. The biggest disruption for the everyman of the Mid-Atlantic will be traffic congestion. The Baltimore-Washington area ranks among the most congested driving regions in the United States. Interstate 695 — also known as the beltway — around Baltimore is already a nightmare. But the area is also on the southern tip of the Washington-Boston I-95 corridor, consistently a thoroughfare for cars, trucks, trailers, busses, hitches, motorcycles, caravans, horses, bicycles, hitchhikers, guns, and other contraband up and down the east coast. The bridge was the only easy route to bypass the city for trucks carrying hazardous materials, as they’re restricted from using the tunnels under the Patapsco river on the I-95 throughway. People who’ve been staying home for work won’t have an issue. But what is already a gnarly commute for others will get a lot worse. There’s not currently an estimate available for how long it will take for the tons of steel bridge debris to be moved out of the way for the port to reopen. The “black box” recorder aboard the container vessel has been taken into custody. As we were collecting our thoughts, the Bonner Private Research daily email popped into our inbox and expressed some of them exactly. You know what they say about great minds… heh. You can preorder our book ["Empire of Debt," here](. For today, Bill takes a stab at what wrath the bridge collapse hath also wrought. ~ Addison CONTINUED BELOW... >>ADVERTISEMENT<< [The first AI-powered startup unlocking the “billionaire economy” for your benefit]( It’s one of the oldest markets in the world, but until recently, the average person would never dream of investing in it. Until a Harvard data scientist and his team cracked the code with a system to identify “excess alpha.” The best part? 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Showbiz and Propaganda Whacked bridges, military failures and monetary hijinks… Bill Bonner, Dublin, Ireland "To plunder, butcher, steal, these things they misname empire: they make a desolation and they call it peace." ~ Tacitus Baltimore made the news worldwide yesterday.  “Six missing after bridge collapse,” says a headline in this morning’s Irish Times. The headline is a little misleading. The bridge didn’t just ‘collapse’…no more than a person shot through the head just ‘dies.’ The bridge got whacked.  But not to worry. Comes more news from TheGuardian: Biden pledged that the U.S. federal government would pay the full cost of rebuilding the bridge in Baltimore, which has also halted activity at a major port for the country. “It’s my intention that the federal government will pay for the entire cost of reconstructing that bridge and I expect the Congress to support my effort,” the U.S. president said. That is more than misleading. Biden has no authority to pledge U.S. funds for bridge building. Nor does the federal government have any money with which to do the work. The cost will have to be paid by the public, one way or another. Meanwhile, in more theater, Baltimore honchos announced a ‘state of emergency.’ What the emergency is was never clarified. The bridge is already in the water. So much of what passes for ‘news’ is just showbiz. Propaganda. And blah blah.  What really matters are the actual trends and events. Bridges get knocked down.  People die. And the debt grows. Barely noticed in the Fed’s announcement last week were a couple of contradictory details. Chairman Jerome Powell said he would hold rates steady but that investors could nevertheless expect three rate cuts this year. The Fed is committed…come Hell or high water…rain or shine…to a 2% inflation target. But that is just theater too. The data drivel last week included the Fed’s own forecasts of higher GDP growth and higher inflation (2.6% for core PCE). It makes no sense to promise lower borrowing rates as you also foresee higher inflation…while still claiming to have a 2% inflation target.  The reality of it, as per Charlie Bilello: The Fed’s 2% inflation target is a farce… Instead, they want to error on the side of easing, and start cutting rates before the war against inflation has been definitively won. Keep the Money Flowing The important thing is to keep the money flowing; everything else is play-acting. Annual inflation rates have averaged 5.7% over the last three years and 2.8% over the last ten years. There is no sign of the 2% inflation the Fed claims to be looking for; the 2% target is just a convenient make-believe. Also in the realm of make-believe is U.S. foreign policy.  Just in the last six months, the U.S. has lost two important battles. In the Ukraine, troops armed with U.S./NATO weapons…and guided by U.S./NATO military advisors and doctrines… …were crushed by Russian forces.  While ‘The West’ was defeated militarily in the Ukraine, it may have suffered an even bigger blow in Gaza.  Selective Interpretations Last week, the UN Security Council called on Israel to cease fire. The U.S., trying to salvage a bit of its prestige and reputation, abstained from the vote. The Biden Team, eyeing the upcoming election, and perhaps noticing a change in the way the winds are blowing, seeks to position itself as a ‘good guy’…while still supplying the Israelis with weapons. But Matthew Miller, a State Department spokesman, revealed that it is all just a stage-managed razz-ma-tazz: "It is our interpretation of this resolution that it is non-binding." Non-binding? A rules-based order in which the rules are just suggestions? Which is our point. It is all theater…except for the part that isn’t. Talk is ‘non-binding.’ But death…debt…and destruction – like a bridge-butting cargo ship – all are very binding. ~ Bill Bonner So it goes, Addison Wiggin, The Wiggin Sessions P.S. “There is no reason from an engineering, management, demolition point of view,” writes Nathan B. one of the more credible reactions sitting in our inbox.  “That it should take months to clear away the wreckage enough to allow ships to travel in and out of Baltimore Harbor. We have the skills and equipment available. Not just in the private sector both in the States and foreign. But also in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (and its contractors), and the U.S. Navy's Seabees and UDT. “Massive dredges are available all up and down the east coast and Gulf: floating cranes, underwater equipment to cut up the pieces and at least pull them out of the way to open at least two traffic lanes of 100 or more meters width. “We could do it, but it is virtually a certainty that we will not: the politicians, including that greedy gut of a mayor, will ensure that. They will milk this for all they are worth, not caring about the destruction of their economy and the damage to that of the other forty-nine.” ~~~ “I watched the bridge cam footage” writes Robert from Houston. “The boat oversteered to starboard and hit the pylon head-on. Just about the worst imaginable thing, knocking it all over. Our Houston Ship Channel Bridge gets routinely clipped underside, but nothing like this. “It appears the control computers (Yokogawa?) were slow to reboot or the pilot/helm reacted incorrectly. There will be a long investigation and the wrong things will be blamed per even longer maritime custom. “In the meantime, U.S. and other ports will take precautions (slowerspeeds, more pilots, tugs) that will slow them down. Reducing port capacity beyond the months B'more will be clearing wreckage. “Could have been much worse -- imagine if an LNG carrier hit the bridge.” ~~~ “Our fragile financial system is more in danger than our supply chains,” writes Clifford who says he’s driven over and sailed under the bridge because his daughter used to live on Kent Island. “[How long before a boat hits that bridge?]( Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: addison@greyswanfraternity.com. 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