The Young and The Foolish...

“The young are brainless, and don’t know what they have; they squander every opportunity of being young, on being young.” ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ March 20, 2024 Oh, To Be Young (and Have All The Answers) Again “The young are brainless, and don’t know what they have; they squander every opportunity of being young, on being young.” – George Bernard Shaw [Special Reminder: In case you missed [our recent announcement]( The Essential Investor has merged with legacy contributors to Agora Financial. The new, larger, more inclusive project is called The Grey Swan Investment Fraternity. If you’re interested in the scope and benefits of our new endeavor, please see what prompted us to merge [here](. If you’ve been a member of The Essential Investor, please keep an eye out for your new benefits.] Dear [Reader], March 20, 2024 – The Ides have passed. It’s the first day of spring. Here comes another flurry of Fed interest-rate speculation. We saw a note on TikTok yesterday showing nearly 100% of Western central banks are ready to cut rates. They just need the “go ahead” from Jay Powell and Company. Boom times, may they come again. In economic terms, if the Fed were really serious about taming “inflation,” rather than just talking tough about it, they’d raise rates. Unfortunately, that’s next to impossible for an economic and financial system addicted to debt. “Talking tough about rates” is what the Fed has been doing since “higher for longer” became shorthand for its policy. Higher for longer serves one purpose: keep spirits high that the Fed is doing its job, while keeping the money spigot open for banks on Wall Street. A conservative person might suggest that once this round of opinion pieces parsing Jerome’s words, divining the Fed’s next move, is over, the conversation ought to focus on the Fed’s balance sheet.  Two quick charts reveal why… CONTINUED BELOW... >>ADVERTISEMENT<< 2024 – The Real Election Year Surprise In 2016, the October Election Surprise was Hillary Clinton’s email scandal… In 2020, the October Election Surprise was the suppression of all the dirty material on Hunter Biden’s “forgotten” laptop… Now, in 2024, we’re forecasting an October Election Surprise that almost no one sees coming — and this time it’ll be way more devastating than anything you’ve seen before. [Click here to learn about 2024’s real October Election Surprise »]( It’s not at all what you think. CONTINUED... Price inflation for things like bread, gas, and prom dresses is a symptom of increased money supply. “More money chasing fewer goods,” is how the old timers would describe it. During the pandemic “stimmie’ era,” the “money supply” leapt up… and kept growing, until interest rates began chasing M2 in 2022: Price inflation, naturally, followed. Only then did folks on Main Street begin to take notice. Is it too coincidental – or obnoxious – then, to point out a graph of the Fed’s balance sheet looks eerily similar to expansion in the money supply? While talking tough about interest rates, the Fed has been shoveling money into the markets, balancing the debt out on its own books. The bubble in Magnificent 7 stocks, for all its magic, still needs air. “The Fed may have been reducing its balance sheet lately, ” writes Mathan Soma, also on TikTok, “but it has been pumping liquidity into the market for more than 6 months by reducing ‘reverse repo.’ In other words, it’s been feeding asset prices and inflation while talking tough. They have to keep ‘talking hawk’ or the jig is up.” In one obvious conundrum, middle class voters won’t feel any improvement in their domestic balance sheets until the Fed drops its own to at least pre-pandemic levels. But voters’ 401(k)s and IRA accounts are looking up… looking good. Alas, the former remains. Prices for stuff on Main Street are felt none more stridently than by the young and the foolish. In a ranking of how happy countries are around the world, “The U.S. fell to 23rd from 15th,” reports Bloomberg this morning, “driven by a large drop in the wellbeing of Americans under 30.” Therein lies the second conundrum. “Young people seem to wake up in the morning in search of something to be outraged about,” writes Laura Williams for American Institute for Economic Research. “We are among the wealthiest and most educated humans in history. But we’re increasingly convinced that we’re worse off than our parents were, that the planet is in crisis, and that it’s probably not worth having kids.” It’s a glum outlook. But there’s more. Williams, who self-identifies as a Millenial (or Gen Z), born between 1981 and 2010, continues: We graduated with record amounts of student debt after President Barack Obama nationalized that lending. Housing prices doubled during our household formation years due to zoning impediments and chronic underbuilding. Young Americans say economic issues are important to us, and candidates are courting our votes by promising student debt relief and cheaper housing – which they will never be able to deliver. Ms. Williams has even more: Young people, in our idealism and our rational ignorance of the actual appropriations process, typically support more government intervention, more spending programs, and more of every other burden that has landed us in such untenable economic circumstances to begin with. Perhaps not coincidentally, young people who’ve spent the most years in the increasingly partisan bubble of higher education are also the most likely to favor expanded government programs as a “solution” to those complaints. What most young people don’t yet understand is that we are sacrificing our young adulthood and our financial security to pay for debts run up by Baby Boomers. Part of every Millennial and Gen-Z paycheck is payable to people the same age as the members of Congress currently milking this system and miring us further in debt. Of course, the easy solution is to make the rich “pay their fair share”... another mantra of the “government-will-solve-the-world” crowd. The hard solution is to save money, invest in yourself, and build something of worth. So it goes, Addison Wiggin, The Wiggin Sessions P.S. We’ve been watching videos on TikTok. We began doing so by accident. Our kids forward short snippets of cats doing goofy things and men telling dad jokes. So, we signed up for an account to watch them. Then, last week, the furor over national security and legislation to ban the app invaded the nation’s consciousness. So, we actually started to pay attention. Let me save you the trouble. Most of what’s on TikTok comes in three categories: women trying to sell clothes to each other, rabid political rants for and against Donald Trump, and amusing pets – cats, dogs, goats, that sort of thing. Oh, and there are a lot of babies and extreme weather events. In short, the app is a complete waste of time. And totally addicting. There is one “channel” called Smart Money Guide that posts good advice for young people just getting their economic sea legs. Here’s one of their posts: Here’s another that explains exactly how the Biden administration’s $7.3 trillion budget turns into reduced deficits over 10 years: In the lower-right column is the pile of capital “rich people” intend to use for investing or building businesses. In an ideal world, that capital goes toward more than just speculation in asset prices or skimming off the Fed’s balance sheet. In a perfect world, the investments spur production, a healthy economy, and increasing prosperity for all. It’s also what progressives mean by “unrealized gains.” They've been striving to get their mitts on these paper gains for more than 100 years, since the 1913 passage of the income-tax code manages only to tax income – or “realized gains” – not wealth itself. P.P.S. We love young people. Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: addison@greyswanfraternity.com. The Daily Missive from The Wiggin Sessions is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. By submitting your email address, you consent to The Wiggn Sessions delivering daily email issues and advertisements. To end your The Daily Missive from The Wiggin Sessions e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from The Daily Missive from The Wiggin Sessions, feel free to [click here.]( Please read our [Privacy Statement.]( For any further comments or concerns please email us at feedback@wigginsessions.com. If you are having trouble receiving your The Wiggin Sessions subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting The Wiggin Sessions.]( © 2024 The Wiggin Sessions 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore MD 21201. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security they personally recommend to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after online publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Paradigm Press, LLC., 1001 Cathedral Street, Baltimore, MD 21201, United States