Time to Go Long Fertilizer

[] Traders have finished one of the most volatile weeks in months. Now is the time to seek specific trades for the long term. Investors should start that approach in the food/materials sectors. [View in browser]( [View in browser]( [] [Godesburg's Haven Investment Letter]( [] [Godesburg's Haven Investment Letter]( [] Time to Go Long Fertilizer [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, The algorithms took over this week, and market makers did their best not to expose themselves to anything lower than 3,750 on the S&P 500. What a week - perhaps the most difficult I have experienced since February 2018. Our daily signals have gone haywire - and now you have to trade intraday momentum to have any semblance of sanity. But that’s not what we do here at Godesburg’s Haven Investment Letter. We’re looking for longer-term potential. So, let’s take a look… The Farmers Face a Long Winter At the onset of 2021, I knew there were transportation issues across the agricultural supply chain. The U.S. government was paying people not to work, the cost of driving a commercial truck had exploded due to insurance, and it was very hard to recruit new drivers to jump in the cab. This created a wealth of problems in the sector. It was very difficult for farmers to get grain from their silos to the elevators. But something much worse has occurred this year… I didn’t expect that the Mississippi River would dry up in 2022. The ongoing drought across the Midwest makes it difficult to move products up and down the river. This will affect farmers across the region… and put further strain on the food supply. Barges remain stuck downriver. Ships were supposed to bring fertilizer up north and then bring harvest crops back down the river. At least 100 tugboats and 2,000 barges couldn’t get upstream. This problem has now spread to the Ohio River as well. This problem will eventually resolve. But it’s creating challenges for fertilizer companies… Moving products may be a challenge in the short-term. But that seems to have created an irrationality in the market. Intrepid Potash Inc is a small-cap producer of fertilizer. It’s based in Colorado. Given that the tiny market capitalization of $622 million keeps most institutions away, this is trading at a rather absurd discount. According to GuruFocus, the tangible book value of IPI is $52.59, while the projected free cash flow puts the stock in the high $50s. Given that we have a very serious need for fertilizer and farmer economics remain very strong in this economy, this is a buy-and-hold - and a no-brainer. I’d project that we’ll see this stock get back into the $80 to $100 range in the future. You simply need to exercise patience. Buy on the sound of cannons and sell on the sound of trumpets. This is an ideal place to park some cash. It Gets Real Next Week I anticipate that the market will pick a direction after Thursday, October 27. Next week, we have earnings reports from the Mega Cap stocks that demand significant capital. They are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Google (GOOG). Last year, 25 cents of every dollar on the S&P 500 found its way into these stocks. I’ve noted that pension funds, ETFs, family offices, and other institutions are significantly exposed to these companies. It would require a significant liquidity event to trigger forced selling in these names. If a big investor sells $500 million in Apple stock should the company fall short of earnings, that fund manager has a $500 million problem. What do they do with the money? Once we push through this earnings cycle, we’ll likely find our direction for the rest of the quarter. This will be a very interesting week. I’m looking forward to trading it alongside you. Enjoy your weekend, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} [] Market momentum is Green again! This is insane. What a bizarre week, with $1.8 trillion in options expiring on Friday. We have a new record. The ongoing chop in this market should clear up on Monday. However, the odds remain high that the worst has not happened yet. [] [] [] Time to Go Long Fertilizer [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, The algorithms took over this week, and market makers did their best not to expose themselves to anything lower than 3,750 on the S&P 500. What a week - perhaps the most difficult I have experienced since February 2018. Our daily signals have gone haywire - and now you have to trade intraday momentum to have any semblance of sanity. But that’s not what we do here at Godesburg’s Haven Investment Letter. We’re looking for longer-term potential. So, let’s take a look… The Farmers Face a Long Winter At the onset of 2021, I knew there were transportation issues across the agricultural supply chain. The U.S. government was paying people not to work, the cost of driving a commercial truck had exploded due to insurance, and it was very hard to recruit new drivers to jump in the cab. This created a wealth of problems in the sector. It was very difficult for farmers to get grain from their silos to the elevators. But something much worse has occurred this year… I didn’t expect that the Mississippi River would dry up in 2022. The ongoing drought across the Midwest makes it difficult to move products up and down the river. This will affect farmers across the region… and put further strain on the food supply. Barges remain stuck downriver. Ships were supposed to bring fertilizer up north and then bring harvest crops back down the river. At least 100 tugboats and 2,000 barges couldn’t get upstream. This problem has now spread to the Ohio River as well. This problem will eventually resolve. But it’s creating challenges for fertilizer companies… Moving products may be a challenge in the short-term. But that seems to have created an irrationality in the market. Intrepid Potash Inc is a small-cap producer of fertilizer. It’s based in Colorado. Given that the tiny market capitalization of $622 million keeps most institutions away, this is trading at a rather absurd discount. According to GuruFocus, the tangible book value of IPI is $52.59, while the projected free cash flow puts the stock in the high $50s. Given that we have a very serious need for fertilizer and farmer economics remain very strong in this economy, this is a buy-and-hold - and a no-brainer. I’d project that we’ll see this stock get back into the $80 to $100 range in the future. You simply need to exercise patience. Buy on the sound of cannons and sell on the sound of trumpets. This is an ideal place to park some cash. It Gets Real Next Week I anticipate that the market will pick a direction after Thursday, October 27. Next week, we have earnings reports from the Mega Cap stocks that demand significant capital. They are Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Google (GOOG). Last year, 25 cents of every dollar on the S&P 500 found its way into these stocks. I’ve noted that pension funds, ETFs, family offices, and other institutions are significantly exposed to these companies. It would require a significant liquidity event to trigger forced selling in these names. If a big investor sells $500 million in Apple stock should the company fall short of earnings, that fund manager has a $500 million problem. What do they do with the money? Once we push through this earnings cycle, we’ll likely find our direction for the rest of the quarter. This will be a very interesting week. I’m looking forward to trading it alongside you. Enjoy your weekend, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} [] Market momentum is Green again! This is insane. What a bizarre week, with $1.8 trillion in options expiring on Friday. We have a new record. The ongoing chop in this market should clear up on Monday. However, the odds remain high that the worst has not happened yet. [] [] [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information please visit [our disclaimer page here](. [] Sent to: {EMAIL} [UNSUBSCRIBE]( [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information please visit [our disclaimer page here](. 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