The First Central Bank Caves - Now What?

[] The Bank of England threw in the towel on quantitative tightening on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. A Lehman Brothers-style event nearly transpired in a G7 nation. [View in browser]( . The Bank of England threw in the towel on quantitative tightening on Wednesday, September 28, 2022. A Lehman Brothers-style event nearly transpired in a G7 nation. [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] Reclusive Genius Uncovers the "Perfect AAPL Trade" With years of trading experience and a proprietary system for backtesting trading results, one reclusive genius has discovered the "perfect" way to trade AAPL -- the biggest and richest tech stock in the world! 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The first will decline, and the second will increase. Dear Investor, Ladies and gentlemen, your second major grey/black swan, transpired on Wednesday. The Bank of England capitulated on its quantitative tightening efforts after a pension crisis nearly sank the damn ship. Instead, the central bank took emerging action yesterday to use 65 billion pounds and purchase long-dated bonds to prevent a government debt meltdown. Recently, Prime Minister Truss’ brain trust thought it’d be clever to cut taxes while inflation ran high - and concerns emerged about surging government borrowing costs. With the pound experiencing its largest monthly decline since October 2008 (a month after Lehman Brothers imploded), the central bank needed to step back in. This is the first significant pivot by a major U.S. bank in 2022. It likely won’t be the last. The Bank of England will raise interest rates (allegedly) while engaging in loose monetary policy. But, on the surface, it makes little sense since the new liquidity will likely find its way elsewhere in the markets - and inflation will only remain a headache. It’s the year of grey swans. In this case, a G7 nation almost converted into an emerging market, nearly crushed its pensions, and crashed its currency toward parity with the dollar. The latter is still possible - but for now - the United Kingdom has avoided its own Lehman Brothers event. The United Kingdom and Germany are the canaries in the coal mine in terms of how liquidity problems mount. So I’ve been watching them closely for eight months, waiting for this moment. When we look back at this chart in the future, England’s bond crisis will be the first event to fill our 2022 page. I expect we’ll see some similar issues in Germany, which is hyper leveraged in manufacturing. Roughly $2 trillion of the nation’s economy relies on about $20 billion in cheap natural gas. We’ll see how the situation unfolds by the end of November. With that said, we might see the Federal Reserve take a breather. And I expect a lot of bets to start calling for a 50-point move on interest rates in November instead of a 75-point move. The Fed has effectively stopped selling mortgage-backed securities as mortgage rates spiral higher. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Fed slow down bond sales as investment-grade debt continues to suffer. When the Fed pivots… be ready to buy… with both hands. The First Swan The European energy markets are now in deep peril. The decision by nations like Germany to outsource their energy needs to Russia had a predictable ending. The reliance motivated Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader expected that Europe would sacrifice Ukraine for cheap natural gas. In hindsight, Europe’s “Great Leap Forward” to convert its economy to clean energy - without a proper transition plan - is one of the worst policy decisions of the early 21st century. Now, things have gone from bad to worse. Sabotage has struck the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, rendering them unusable in the future. So the taps are now officially off. It’s unclear what plan will be offered to solve Europe’s long winter… and the one after that. But I am bullish now on the pipeline operators for natural gas in Texas and oil and gas producers in the Permian basin. I think Energy Transfer (ET) at $11.00 per share is a bargain with an inflation-beating yield. If shares pull back, consider the second leg in the purchase at $10.00. Meanwhile, ConocoPhillips (COP) continues to chug along. It is generating profits on oil production even under $50 per barrel (my expected low for oil sits around $72.00 at worst, given supply problems). In addition, COP has two very attractive natural gas projects that will benefit from the growth of the U.S. export business. With a 4.3% dividend, it’s a great long-term buy and holds, and it will benefit if the dollar does start to retreat as well. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] The First Central Bank Caves - Now What? [Garrett Pic] Momentum remains Red, but we have seen three solid days of declines in selling with some nibbling in the healthcare sector. I am starting to speculate on the possibility of a dead cat bouncing on the back of oversold conditions. Cash remains your best option right now, but there are specific sectors and emerging markets that may deserve a bid. Pay close attention to the action of the dollar and Bitcoin to determine if capital is coming off the sideline. The first will decline, and the second will increase. Dear Investor, Ladies and gentlemen, your second major grey/black swan, transpired on Wednesday. The Bank of England capitulated on its quantitative tightening efforts after a pension crisis nearly sank the damn ship. Instead, the central bank took emerging action yesterday to use 65 billion pounds and purchase long-dated bonds to prevent a government debt meltdown. Recently, Prime Minister Truss’ brain trust thought it’d be clever to cut taxes while inflation ran high - and concerns emerged about surging government borrowing costs. With the pound experiencing its largest monthly decline since October 2008 (a month after Lehman Brothers imploded), the central bank needed to step back in. This is the first significant pivot by a major U.S. bank in 2022. It likely won’t be the last. The Bank of England will raise interest rates (allegedly) while engaging in loose monetary policy. But, on the surface, it makes little sense since the new liquidity will likely find its way elsewhere in the markets - and inflation will only remain a headache. It’s the year of grey swans. In this case, a G7 nation almost converted into an emerging market, nearly crushed its pensions, and crashed its currency toward parity with the dollar. The latter is still possible - but for now - the United Kingdom has avoided its own Lehman Brothers event. The United Kingdom and Germany are the canaries in the coal mine in terms of how liquidity problems mount. So I’ve been watching them closely for eight months, waiting for this moment. When we look back at this chart in the future, England’s bond crisis will be the first event to fill our 2022 page. I expect we’ll see some similar issues in Germany, which is hyper leveraged in manufacturing. Roughly $2 trillion of the nation’s economy relies on about $20 billion in cheap natural gas. We’ll see how the situation unfolds by the end of November. With that said, we might see the Federal Reserve take a breather. And I expect a lot of bets to start calling for a 50-point move on interest rates in November instead of a 75-point move. The Fed has effectively stopped selling mortgage-backed securities as mortgage rates spiral higher. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Fed slow down bond sales as investment-grade debt continues to suffer. When the Fed pivots… be ready to buy… with both hands. The First Swan The European energy markets are now in deep peril. The decision by nations like Germany to outsource their energy needs to Russia had a predictable ending. The reliance motivated Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader expected that Europe would sacrifice Ukraine for cheap natural gas. In hindsight, Europe’s “Great Leap Forward” to convert its economy to clean energy - without a proper transition plan - is one of the worst policy decisions of the early 21st century. Now, things have gone from bad to worse. Sabotage has struck the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, rendering them unusable in the future. So the taps are now officially off. It’s unclear what plan will be offered to solve Europe’s long winter… and the one after that. But I am bullish now on the pipeline operators for natural gas in Texas and oil and gas producers in the Permian basin. I think Energy Transfer (ET) at $11.00 per share is a bargain with an inflation-beating yield. If shares pull back, consider the second leg in the purchase at $10.00. Meanwhile, ConocoPhillips (COP) continues to chug along. It is generating profits on oil production even under $50 per barrel (my expected low for oil sits around $72.00 at worst, given supply problems). In addition, COP has two very attractive natural gas projects that will benefit from the growth of the U.S. export business. With a 4.3% dividend, it’s a great long-term buy and holds, and it will benefit if the dollar does start to retreat as well. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] "NO MORE Altcoins" Crypto Workshop [jeffry alt coin]( [Learn from a top trader why to avoid this minefield]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] "NO MORE Altcoins" Crypto Workshop [jeffry alt coin]( [Learn from a top trader why to avoid this minefield]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Has This Group of Remarkable Traders Discovered the PERFECT AAPL Trade? If you ever thought that it’s way too late to see significant movement in major stocks like AAPL... 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You need to think again… The Perfect Apple Trade Has Been Discovered Thanks to the help of a maverick group of former Wall Street traders… and a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence platform… California tech wiz and renowned trader Micah Lamar has uncovered obscure “trade cycles” in AAPL shares capable of signaling major movement… All in a matter of days... These Aren’t Common Results Nearly all market analysts are clueless about these moves… But Micah’s proprietary system has been able to predict significant moves in AAPL stock… over and over again. Now, You Can See the System for Yourself! He’ll walk you through his AAPL system step-by-step… and answer the most common questions he sees... 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Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States