Is a Bottom in the Distance?

[] The S&P 500 is hovering at a key resistance point of 3,900. However, more bearish bets call for an outright selloff deeper into the year. Let’s take a look at when and if that selloff will come. [View in browser]( . The S&P 500 is hovering at a key resistance point of 3,900. However, more bearish bets call for an outright selloff deeper into the year. Let’s take a look at when and if that selloff will come. [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] 70% Success Rate Trading the Crown Jewel of Tech Stocks?! That’s the remarkable track record Micah Lamar boasts with the “Perfect Apple Trade.” And Micah is sharing details on how others can get in on these trades. [Click here to see the broadcast now]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 70% Success Rate Trading the Crown Jewel of Tech Stocks?! That’s the remarkable track record Micah Lamar boasts with the “Perfect Apple Trade.” And Micah is sharing details on how others can get in on these trades. [Click here to see the broadcast now]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Is a Bottom in the Distance? [Garrett Pic] Momentum is Red. The S&P 500 continues to bounce around that support level of 3,900, and we could see some fireworks during Quad Witching on Friday. But something is interesting about how traders bet on higher interest rates in the second and third quarters of 2023. And we need to discuss why being open-minded to short-term rallies is more important than ever. Dear Investor, As projected, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) flirted with disaster again Thursday, breaking under the key support level of 390. Instead, the S&P 500 is dancing around that 3,900 level. If we move lower than those levels… look out below. While some traders celebrated the top-line retail numbers, we have a problem with the economy. The AtlantaFED again slashed its third-quarter GDP estimate to 0.5%. I’ll still take the under… I fully expect that we’ll have three or four negative quarters of economic growth on top of a tolerable job market. The key thing to remember about the job market is that we still haven’t completely recovered all jobs lost from COVID-19. The jobs market is still seeing way too many Americans holding second jobs. That doesn’t make for a robust economy. Two Charts and a Forecast There are two charts that you need to see today. Please click on the images to view them larger. The first is the long-term price chart for Meta Platforms (META). Mark Zuckerberg’s big bet on the Metaverse (at least for the time being) isn’t a huge hit with investors. We’re now back to testing the December 2018 and March 2020 lows. This is extremely bearish. However, I’m also starting to see a market aggressively pricing in higher interest rate expectations now through late 2023. At some point, META will be a buy. But it takes a lot of guts to start buying up the stock ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week. After more than a decade of cheap money policies, it’s a reminder that everyone sells at once - but it takes a VERY long time for the price bubble to move. I recommend you start putting together a watchlist of stocks that could experience rebounds when we have three important factors that tell us when the bottom comes. The bottom will come in this order: - The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. - Executive Insiders will engage in what could be the most aggressive period of buying their stocks since March/April 2020. - Momentum will turn positive in the market - and we will take off from there. That rally won’t happen next week… and probably won’t happen in 2023. But it’s important to know that this will be the pattern. I highly recommend cash as a position when momentum is negative. There’s a possibility that we see another big leg down in the technology sector. Still, this downturn for META will be the subject of many conversations. The stock is now off 60% from its 52-week high. That is severe wealth destruction that could take more than a decade to return to 2021 highs. When we move into oversold territory on META, I may look to see out of the money puts… but not today. Next, take a look at this chart. SPY Circa 2018 The last time the Federal Reserve aggressively tapered its balance sheet, the markets didn’t like the process. In 2018, the Fed expanded its balance sheet cuts from $30 billion per month to $50 billion per month. The markets freaked out… The bond market sold off aggressively in November 2018. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) sold off nearly 19.8% in December 2018. But note the directional moves of the S&P 500 during that time. The market was range bound in October, November, and December of that year before we finally reached a massive selloff. After this massive drop in December, the Federal Reserve gave up. It started buying assets again… and started cutting interest rates. This “giving up” is what so many traders have bet on in the last three months. But we’ve seen a big shift in rate expectations now for Q3 2023. The odds of a move above 4% by February 2023… and up to 5% in July 2023… are increasing by the day. Right now, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is bouncing at resistance of 390. Its upward range level is 415. I would not be surprised to see this market trade similarly to what we saw in those months of 2018 before the market cratered. You must pay close attention to short squeezes… and watch the probabilities of rate hikes for the Fed. The odds of a 100-point hike on Wednesday has increased to 22%. If the Fed only goes to 75 points, those higher bets will need to be unwound. So don’t be surprised to see us move higher next week. If you’re shorting this market… you might want to take profits by Monday. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Is a Bottom in the Distance? [Garrett Pic] Momentum is Red. The S&P 500 continues to bounce around that support level of 3,900, and we could see some fireworks during Quad Witching on Friday. But something is interesting about how traders bet on higher interest rates in the second and third quarters of 2023. And we need to discuss why being open-minded to short-term rallies is more important than ever. Dear Investor, As projected, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) flirted with disaster again Thursday, breaking under the key support level of 390. Instead, the S&P 500 is dancing around that 3,900 level. If we move lower than those levels… look out below. While some traders celebrated the top-line retail numbers, we have a problem with the economy. The AtlantaFED again slashed its third-quarter GDP estimate to 0.5%. I’ll still take the under… I fully expect that we’ll have three or four negative quarters of economic growth on top of a tolerable job market. The key thing to remember about the job market is that we still haven’t completely recovered all jobs lost from COVID-19. The jobs market is still seeing way too many Americans holding second jobs. That doesn’t make for a robust economy. Two Charts and a Forecast There are two charts that you need to see today. Please click on the images to view them larger. The first is the long-term price chart for Meta Platforms (META). Mark Zuckerberg’s big bet on the Metaverse (at least for the time being) isn’t a huge hit with investors. We’re now back to testing the December 2018 and March 2020 lows. This is extremely bearish. However, I’m also starting to see a market aggressively pricing in higher interest rate expectations now through late 2023. At some point, META will be a buy. But it takes a lot of guts to start buying up the stock ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week. After more than a decade of cheap money policies, it’s a reminder that everyone sells at once - but it takes a VERY long time for the price bubble to move. I recommend you start putting together a watchlist of stocks that could experience rebounds when we have three important factors that tell us when the bottom comes. The bottom will come in this order: - The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. - Executive Insiders will engage in what could be the most aggressive period of buying their stocks since March/April 2020. - Momentum will turn positive in the market - and we will take off from there. That rally won’t happen next week… and probably won’t happen in 2023. But it’s important to know that this will be the pattern. I highly recommend cash as a position when momentum is negative. There’s a possibility that we see another big leg down in the technology sector. Still, this downturn for META will be the subject of many conversations. The stock is now off 60% from its 52-week high. That is severe wealth destruction that could take more than a decade to return to 2021 highs. When we move into oversold territory on META, I may look to see out of the money puts… but not today. Next, take a look at this chart. SPY Circa 2018 The last time the Federal Reserve aggressively tapered its balance sheet, the markets didn’t like the process. In 2018, the Fed expanded its balance sheet cuts from $30 billion per month to $50 billion per month. The markets freaked out… The bond market sold off aggressively in November 2018. The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) sold off nearly 19.8% in December 2018. But note the directional moves of the S&P 500 during that time. The market was range bound in October, November, and December of that year before we finally reached a massive selloff. After this massive drop in December, the Federal Reserve gave up. It started buying assets again… and started cutting interest rates. This “giving up” is what so many traders have bet on in the last three months. But we’ve seen a big shift in rate expectations now for Q3 2023. The odds of a move above 4% by February 2023… and up to 5% in July 2023… are increasing by the day. Right now, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is bouncing at resistance of 390. Its upward range level is 415. I would not be surprised to see this market trade similarly to what we saw in those months of 2018 before the market cratered. You must pay close attention to short squeezes… and watch the probabilities of rate hikes for the Fed. The odds of a 100-point hike on Wednesday has increased to 22%. If the Fed only goes to 75 points, those higher bets will need to be unwound. So don’t be surprised to see us move higher next week. If you’re shorting this market… you might want to take profits by Monday. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Taking advantage of negative market momentum has been the secret of Garrett’s success for nearly a decade. And now, he’s revealing his strategy for the first time in his latest report. Right now… you have a choice to make. Will you capture this opportunity and learn how to make real money with this powerful strategy? …Or will you keep doing the same thing that frustrates you? [Choose Wisely]( It’s your choice. But this report will go dark when momentum turns Green again. [Choose wisely.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Taking advantage of negative market momentum has been the secret of Garrett’s success for nearly a decade. And now, he’s revealing his strategy for the first time in his latest report. Right now… you have a choice to make. Will you capture this opportunity and learn how to make real money with this powerful strategy? …Or will you keep doing the same thing that frustrates you? [Choose Wisely]( It’s your choice. But this report will go dark when momentum turns Green again. [Choose wisely.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] 20-Year CBOE Vet Reveals: “This is My Answer to Volatility” Alan Knuckman is a CBOE veteran who has made millions trading the market, appearing regularly on every major financial network in the company. But today—after 3 years of research—and billions of data points analyzed… He’s revealing one of the biggest breakthroughs of his career! It’s a research project that helps solve the scariest issue for most traders… [Click here to learn Alan’s solution for volatility]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] 20-Year CBOE Vet Reveals: “This is My Answer to Volatility” Alan Knuckman is a CBOE veteran who has made millions trading the market, appearing regularly on every major financial network in the company. But today—after 3 years of research—and billions of data points analyzed… He’s revealing one of the biggest breakthroughs of his career! It’s a research project that helps solve the scariest issue for most traders… [Click here to learn Alan’s solution for volatility]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Article Recap - [Is a Bottom in the Distance?](#i572731) - [0-Year CBOE Vet Reveals: “This is My Answer to Volatility”](#159895) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Article Recap - [Is a Bottom in the Distance?](#i572731) - [0-Year CBOE Vet Reveals: “This is My Answer to Volatility”](#159895) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States