The Problem With The Fed

[] Markets moved lower on Tuesday and ticked higher on Wednesday. With momentum currently in the red, investors are facing extreme volatility in the month ahead. [View in browser]( . Markets moved lower on Tuesday and ticked higher on Wednesday. With momentum currently in the red, investors are facing extreme volatility in the month ahead. [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] 70% Success Rate Trading the Crown Jewel of Tech Stocks?! That’s the remarkable track record Micah Lamar boasts with the “Perfect Apple Trade.” And Micah is sharing details on how others can get in on these trades. [Click here to see the broadcast now]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 70% Success Rate Trading the Crown Jewel of Tech Stocks?! That’s the remarkable track record Micah Lamar boasts with the “Perfect Apple Trade.” And Micah is sharing details on how others can get in on these trades. [Click here to see the broadcast now]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] The Problem With The Fed [Garrett Pic] Momentum is Red. The markets got a small bid today, but momentum turned red on Tuesday. Don’t be shocked if we see more volatility heading into Quad Witching on Friday. From there, seasonality suggests that this market could experience significant pain through the end of the month. Dear Investor, Some people just need to retire. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida appeared on CNBC this week – with a “stunning” warning about future interest rates moves. Talking about the Fed’s rate policy, Clarida said: "I think they're going to 4% hell or high water if I had to put it into two boxes. They are data-dependent, but that's why they're going to 4%. Inflation is way too high." Hell or high water? It sounds like the Fed is living on the edge. It sounds like things are so challenging that the Federal Reserve will have “the courage to act” and may be willing to push the economy into recession. (Note: “The Courage to Act” was the name of former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s autobiographic recount of the Fed’s actions after the Great Financial Crisis of 2009. Try not to pull an ocular muscle rolling your eyes at that small fact). Courage! Strength! Action! Clarida had to resign from the central bank last year because he allegedly traded stocks funds on knowledge of Fed policy. According to disclosures, he allegedly sold a stock fund and then repurchased it before the Fed made a policy announcement. Now, he’s trying to make the Fed’s policy actions sound daring. But one caveat. The market has already priced in a move to 4%... The real question is whether the Fed will keep interest rates at 4% for 12 or more months. As you can see, the market has priced in cuts starting in the third quarter of 2023. So, for all the talk about “doing everything to contain inflation,” the markets still do not believe the Federal Reserve. Loretta Mester at the Cleveland Fed said that the central bank should raise to 4% by the end of the year and just leave it there. I expect this to be the path… but we hit 4.5% first. Of course, we know that every fast rate hike cycle ends in calamity, either in the U.S. or in some global market. Buckle up. We’re looking at not only a volatile market in the final four months of the year… but also well into 2025? Yes, 2025. Because while everyone is jabbering on about rate hikes, the Fed is also trimming its balance sheet at an unprecedented pace. In September, the step up moves from $47.5 billion to $95 billion per month. In 2018, by comparison, the Fed moved from $30 billion to $50 billion in balance sheet reduction in the fall. The bond market went all “bag of bananas” in November 2018, and then the S&P 500 plunged by 19.8% in December 2018. This doesn’t look like a “one off” period. The New York Federal Reserve projects that the central bank will cut about $2.5 TRILLION from its balance sheet by 2025. That’s… a long… way… to… go. If you’ve ever drunkenly eyed the chart of the S&P 500 compared to the Fed’s balance sheet, you’d know that correlation could very well create liquidity problems for the stock market. Chart of the Day Are we in a financial crisis right now? Absolutely. Say it with me. Credit Suisse’s Credit Default Swap numbers are the worst since 2009… and there is zero that the Fed or the European Central Bank can do about it. The difference between 2009 and today is inflation. One can’t introduce trillions in liquidity to the financial markets without worsening the situation. It’s “medicine” time. We’ll talk about how to play defense in this market… tomorrow. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] The Problem With The Fed [Garrett Pic] Momentum is Red. The markets got a small bid today, but momentum turned red on Tuesday. Don’t be shocked if we see more volatility heading into Quad Witching on Friday. From there, seasonality suggests that this market could experience significant pain through the end of the month. Dear Investor, Some people just need to retire. Former Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida appeared on CNBC this week – with a “stunning” warning about future interest rates moves. Talking about the Fed’s rate policy, Clarida said: "I think they're going to 4% hell or high water if I had to put it into two boxes. They are data-dependent, but that's why they're going to 4%. Inflation is way too high." Hell or high water? It sounds like the Fed is living on the edge. It sounds like things are so challenging that the Federal Reserve will have “the courage to act” and may be willing to push the economy into recession. (Note: “The Courage to Act” was the name of former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke’s autobiographic recount of the Fed’s actions after the Great Financial Crisis of 2009. Try not to pull an ocular muscle rolling your eyes at that small fact). Courage! Strength! Action! Clarida had to resign from the central bank last year because he allegedly traded stocks funds on knowledge of Fed policy. According to disclosures, he allegedly sold a stock fund and then repurchased it before the Fed made a policy announcement. Now, he’s trying to make the Fed’s policy actions sound daring. But one caveat. The market has already priced in a move to 4%... The real question is whether the Fed will keep interest rates at 4% for 12 or more months. As you can see, the market has priced in cuts starting in the third quarter of 2023. So, for all the talk about “doing everything to contain inflation,” the markets still do not believe the Federal Reserve. Loretta Mester at the Cleveland Fed said that the central bank should raise to 4% by the end of the year and just leave it there. I expect this to be the path… but we hit 4.5% first. Of course, we know that every fast rate hike cycle ends in calamity, either in the U.S. or in some global market. Buckle up. We’re looking at not only a volatile market in the final four months of the year… but also well into 2025? Yes, 2025. Because while everyone is jabbering on about rate hikes, the Fed is also trimming its balance sheet at an unprecedented pace. In September, the step up moves from $47.5 billion to $95 billion per month. In 2018, by comparison, the Fed moved from $30 billion to $50 billion in balance sheet reduction in the fall. The bond market went all “bag of bananas” in November 2018, and then the S&P 500 plunged by 19.8% in December 2018. This doesn’t look like a “one off” period. The New York Federal Reserve projects that the central bank will cut about $2.5 TRILLION from its balance sheet by 2025. That’s… a long… way… to… go. If you’ve ever drunkenly eyed the chart of the S&P 500 compared to the Fed’s balance sheet, you’d know that correlation could very well create liquidity problems for the stock market. Chart of the Day Are we in a financial crisis right now? Absolutely. Say it with me. Credit Suisse’s Credit Default Swap numbers are the worst since 2009… and there is zero that the Fed or the European Central Bank can do about it. The difference between 2009 and today is inflation. One can’t introduce trillions in liquidity to the financial markets without worsening the situation. It’s “medicine” time. We’ll talk about how to play defense in this market… tomorrow. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Reclusive California Tech Wiz Reveals... the Perfect AAPL Trade [Apple products]( [See the reveal of this remarkable system]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Reclusive California Tech Wiz Reveals... the Perfect AAPL Trade [Apple products]( [See the reveal of this remarkable system]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Has This Group of Remarkable Traders Discovered the PERFECT AAPL Trade? If you ever thought that it’s way too late to see significant movement in major stocks like AAPL... You need to think again… The Perfect Apple Trade Has Been Discovered Thanks to the help of a maverick group of former Wall Street traders… and a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence platform… California tech wiz and renowned trader Micah Lamar has uncovered obscure “trade cycles” in AAPL shares capable of signaling major movement… All in a matter of days... These Aren’t Common Results Nearly all market analysts are clueless about these moves… But Micah’s proprietary system has been able to predict significant moves in AAPL stock… over and over again. Now, You Can See the System for Yourself! He’ll walk you through his AAPL system step-by-step… and answer the most common questions he sees... You’ll even be able to gain access to Micah’s proprietary Apple trading tool… Plus, you’ll see the remarkable results Micah’s system has returned, just by placing one trade on iconic Apple Inc., the crown jewel of tech stocks… [Click here to gain immediate access to this presentation]( You’ll be one of the lucky few to see the Perfect Apple Trade system yourself… And meet the brilliant inventor behind this system… [Catch it all here]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Has This Group of Remarkable Traders Discovered the PERFECT AAPL Trade? If you ever thought that it’s way too late to see significant movement in major stocks like AAPL... You need to think again… The Perfect Apple Trade Has Been Discovered Thanks to the help of a maverick group of former Wall Street traders… and a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence platform… California tech wiz and renowned trader Micah Lamar has uncovered obscure “trade cycles” in AAPL shares capable of signaling major movement… All in a matter of days... These Aren’t Common Results Nearly all market analysts are clueless about these moves… But Micah’s proprietary system has been able to predict significant moves in AAPL stock… over and over again. Now, You Can See the System for Yourself! He’ll walk you through his AAPL system step-by-step… and answer the most common questions he sees... You’ll even be able to gain access to Micah’s proprietary Apple trading tool… Plus, you’ll see the remarkable results Micah’s system has returned, just by placing one trade on iconic Apple Inc., the crown jewel of tech stocks… [Click here to gain immediate access to this presentation]( You’ll be one of the lucky few to see the Perfect Apple Trade system yourself… And meet the brilliant inventor behind this system… [Catch it all here]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Article Recap - [The Problem With The Fed](#i572731) - [Has This Group of Remarkable Traders Discovered the PERFECT AAPL Trade?](#156382) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Article Recap - [The Problem With The Fed](#i572731) - [Has This Group of Remarkable Traders Discovered the PERFECT AAPL Trade?](#156382) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States