My Best Defense In These Markets

[] Trading momentum is a combination of art and skill. Each day, I break down momentum to a single number. Here are the tools that I use to trade momentum today. [View in browser]( . Trading momentum is a combination of art and skill. Each day, I break down momentum to a single number. Here are the tools that I use to trade momentum today. [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] Day Trading Crash Course The "Day Trading Crash Course" includes everything you will need on the path to market mastery... including hundreds of hours of recorded Q&A strategy sessions -- a $997 value... Just $9 gets you a full week of access! [Start your day trading journey today!]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Day Trading Crash Course The "Day Trading Crash Course" includes everything you will need on the path to market mastery... including hundreds of hours of recorded Q&A strategy sessions -- a $997 value... Just $9 gets you a full week of access! [Start your day trading journey today!]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] My Best Defense In These Markets [Garrett Pic] Momentum is Red. The S&P 500 continues to test the 3,900 level, while volatility is climbing. The key indicator - surprisingly - that I’m watching is Bitcoin. It fell under $19,000 on Tuesday, signaling a possible margin event somewhere in the trading world. Dear Investor, One thing I don’t worry about… is getting crushed by the stock market. I know that sounds absurd and overconfident… But I focus on “momentum” in the S&P 500 and the broader market. In real-time, we measure when capital is coming into the market and when it’s leaving… fast. Why does this matter? Look at recent examples of bear market rallies that kicked right back into selloffs. More importantly, let’s look at what we discovered in “real-time” versus what we would only learn in the media three or four days after the selloff. On April 6, our momentum measurement went negative. I moved to cash. I then bought a lot of puts on the Russell 2000 and ChargePoint. We put some cash into the Dollar Bullish Index (UUP) – which rose as capital left the market and the dollar increased. A week after the SPY fell from 458 to 426 (a 6.9% drop), we had just experienced the largest outflows among ETFs since 2018. On June 8, our momentum measurement went negative. I moved to cash. This time, I bought puts on the Russell 2000 and ChargePoint (CHPT). We put some cash back into the UUP. Same result. Six days after the SPY fell from – 412 to 376 (an 8.7% drop), we learned that hedge funds engaged in their largest selling in about 15 years. That’s where a low-volume bear rally started. On August 22, this momentum calculation went negative. I moved to cash. This time, we traded on the S&P 500 Short ETF (SH), calls on the Triple-Bear QQQ (SQQQ), calls on the Triple-Bear Small Cap Index (TZA). On Thursday, we learned again about large outflows in the ETF market and a continued effort among hedge funds to short. And when it goes positive – as it did on March 16, May 24, and July 19-I’ll go long SPY and start trading unprofitable stocks. That’s the trade. It’s boring when you think about it—waiting around for a color to go Green or Red. But I can say that we’ve missed five selloffs this year and found four short-term bottoms. If you are interested in the wealth of academic research around momentum, I highly recommend this library of influential academic and institutional insight. They include - but are not limited to: - The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing by Thomas George and Chuan-Yang Hwang (2004) - Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman - Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner's Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System by Jack R. Vogel and Wesley Gray - The Value and Momentum Trader: Dynamic Stock Selection Models to Beat the Market by Grant Henning (2009) - Profitable Momentum Trading Strategies for Individual Investors by Bryan Foltice (2015) - Multiple Discriminant Analysis of the Price Momentum Anomaly and Reversal Event Signals by JD Henning (2016) - A Case of `Wag the Dog’? ETFs and Stock-Level Liquidity by Daniel J. Sandberg (2018) And if you’re interested in learning how to trade negative momentum, [check out my full report right here.]( Taking On the Fed The Fed is likely going to 3.75% by the end of the year. From there, interest rates should stay elevated for a longer period. That’s where the real fun and challenges begin. During every bear market back to 1987, the Fed cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve cannot do it this time. The current yield curve expects a 75-basis point hike in September. The markets expect a 50-point hike in November and a 25-point hike in December. I still think we’re going to 4%. One bad CPI print or a resurgence of higher oil prices, and we’re looking at 50 in December. Inflation is global… [Global Inflation]( [Click to Enlarge]( But the U.S. is ranked 92nd for the worst levels of inflation. That makes the situation worse. If the U.S. pushes rates higher and markets and liquidity weaken, the U.S. dollar will strengthen in a race to cash (creating severe debt problems for specific emerging markets that took on significant dollar-denominated debt.) What’s above my paygrade is what happens to G7 nations like the United Kingdom or Germany. According to Goldman Sachs, inflation is expected to hit 23% in the United Kingdom this January. Germany’s entire economy is leveraged on the ability to manufacture on top cheap, accessible natural gas. Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse noted in August that about $2 trillion in Germany’s economic value is derived from $20 billion in natural gas. What happens to their economic growth? Buckle up, friends. We’re only in the second inning of this drama. This is why we are sitting heavy in cash and waiting for the next leg of this process. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] My Best Defense In These Markets [Garrett Pic] Momentum is Red. The S&P 500 continues to test the 3,900 level, while volatility is climbing. The key indicator - surprisingly - that I’m watching is Bitcoin. It fell under $19,000 on Tuesday, signaling a possible margin event somewhere in the trading world. Dear Investor, One thing I don’t worry about… is getting crushed by the stock market. I know that sounds absurd and overconfident… But I focus on “momentum” in the S&P 500 and the broader market. In real-time, we measure when capital is coming into the market and when it’s leaving… fast. Why does this matter? Look at recent examples of bear market rallies that kicked right back into selloffs. More importantly, let’s look at what we discovered in “real-time” versus what we would only learn in the media three or four days after the selloff. On April 6, our momentum measurement went negative. I moved to cash. I then bought a lot of puts on the Russell 2000 and ChargePoint. We put some cash into the Dollar Bullish Index (UUP) – which rose as capital left the market and the dollar increased. A week after the SPY fell from 458 to 426 (a 6.9% drop), we had just experienced the largest outflows among ETFs since 2018. On June 8, our momentum measurement went negative. I moved to cash. This time, I bought puts on the Russell 2000 and ChargePoint (CHPT). We put some cash back into the UUP. Same result. Six days after the SPY fell from – 412 to 376 (an 8.7% drop), we learned that hedge funds engaged in their largest selling in about 15 years. That’s where a low-volume bear rally started. On August 22, this momentum calculation went negative. I moved to cash. This time, we traded on the S&P 500 Short ETF (SH), calls on the Triple-Bear QQQ (SQQQ), calls on the Triple-Bear Small Cap Index (TZA). On Thursday, we learned again about large outflows in the ETF market and a continued effort among hedge funds to short. And when it goes positive – as it did on March 16, May 24, and July 19-I’ll go long SPY and start trading unprofitable stocks. That’s the trade. It’s boring when you think about it—waiting around for a color to go Green or Red. But I can say that we’ve missed five selloffs this year and found four short-term bottoms. If you are interested in the wealth of academic research around momentum, I highly recommend this library of influential academic and institutional insight. They include - but are not limited to: - The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing by Thomas George and Chuan-Yang Hwang (2004) - Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman - Quantitative Momentum: A Practitioner's Guide to Building a Momentum-Based Stock Selection System by Jack R. Vogel and Wesley Gray - The Value and Momentum Trader: Dynamic Stock Selection Models to Beat the Market by Grant Henning (2009) - Profitable Momentum Trading Strategies for Individual Investors by Bryan Foltice (2015) - Multiple Discriminant Analysis of the Price Momentum Anomaly and Reversal Event Signals by JD Henning (2016) - A Case of `Wag the Dog’? ETFs and Stock-Level Liquidity by Daniel J. Sandberg (2018) And if you’re interested in learning how to trade negative momentum, [check out my full report right here.]( Taking On the Fed The Fed is likely going to 3.75% by the end of the year. From there, interest rates should stay elevated for a longer period. That’s where the real fun and challenges begin. During every bear market back to 1987, the Fed cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve cannot do it this time. The current yield curve expects a 75-basis point hike in September. The markets expect a 50-point hike in November and a 25-point hike in December. I still think we’re going to 4%. One bad CPI print or a resurgence of higher oil prices, and we’re looking at 50 in December. Inflation is global… [Global Inflation]( [Click to Enlarge]( But the U.S. is ranked 92nd for the worst levels of inflation. That makes the situation worse. If the U.S. pushes rates higher and markets and liquidity weaken, the U.S. dollar will strengthen in a race to cash (creating severe debt problems for specific emerging markets that took on significant dollar-denominated debt.) What’s above my paygrade is what happens to G7 nations like the United Kingdom or Germany. According to Goldman Sachs, inflation is expected to hit 23% in the United Kingdom this January. Germany’s entire economy is leveraged on the ability to manufacture on top cheap, accessible natural gas. Zoltan Pozsar of Credit Suisse noted in August that about $2 trillion in Germany’s economic value is derived from $20 billion in natural gas. What happens to their economic growth? Buckle up, friends. We’re only in the second inning of this drama. This is why we are sitting heavy in cash and waiting for the next leg of this process. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Taking advantage of negative market momentum has been the secret of Garrett’s success for nearly a decade. And now, he’s revealing his strategy for the first time in his latest report. Right now… you have a choice to make. Will you capture this opportunity and learn how to make real money with this powerful strategy? …Or will you keep doing the same thing that frustrates you? [Choose Wisely]( It’s your choice. But this report will go dark when momentum turns Green again. [Choose wisely.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Taking advantage of negative market momentum has been the secret of Garrett’s success for nearly a decade. And now, he’s revealing his strategy for the first time in his latest report. Right now… you have a choice to make. Will you capture this opportunity and learn how to make real money with this powerful strategy? …Or will you keep doing the same thing that frustrates you? [Choose Wisely]( It’s your choice. But this report will go dark when momentum turns Green again. [Choose wisely.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Is Trading AAPL Stock and Finding Meaningful Movement Still Possible? There are thousands of stocks moving in the market every single day… But few draw the level of focus, attention, and excitement as Apple, Inc. (AAPL). AAPL is the Biggest, Richest, and One of the Most Widely Traded Stocks in the World Apple was the first company to hit a market cap of $1 trillion or more, and they now have a market cap of over $2.6 trillion. With an average daily volume of almost 90 million, it is also one of the most widely-traded companies in the world. Even Warren Buffett himself owns more a higher stake in AAPL than in any other company. All This Interest in AAPL Creates One Major Problem With so much interest in such a popular, widely discussed stock, there’s a clear problem. Is it really possible for traders to reach in and grab meaningful trade movement from AAPL shares? Can traders really hope to still trade this crown jewel of tech stocks? Thanks to a Reclusive California Tech Wiz, the Path for Trading AAPL is Clear Thanks to the work of a rogue group of former Wall Street traders, led by a brilliant California tech wiz, they can! Micah Lamar, the brain behind one of the most powerful trade-testing softwares on the planet, has uncovered what he calls “The Perfect AAPL Trade.” [>> See this remarkable system in action here <<]( With a groundbreaking combination of indicators, Micah has perfected a system that now carries an almost-70% win rate… And a reward-to-risk ratio of 3-to-1… And he recently shared that system with the public for the very first time. [Click here right away to learn everything about the Perfect Apple Trade]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Is Trading AAPL Stock and Finding Meaningful Movement Still Possible? There are thousands of stocks moving in the market every single day… But few draw the level of focus, attention, and excitement as Apple, Inc. (AAPL). AAPL is the Biggest, Richest, and One of the Most Widely Traded Stocks in the World Apple was the first company to hit a market cap of $1 trillion or more, and they now have a market cap of over $2.6 trillion. With an average daily volume of almost 90 million, it is also one of the most widely-traded companies in the world. Even Warren Buffett himself owns more a higher stake in AAPL than in any other company. All This Interest in AAPL Creates One Major Problem With so much interest in such a popular, widely discussed stock, there’s a clear problem. Is it really possible for traders to reach in and grab meaningful trade movement from AAPL shares? Can traders really hope to still trade this crown jewel of tech stocks? Thanks to a Reclusive California Tech Wiz, the Path for Trading AAPL is Clear Thanks to the work of a rogue group of former Wall Street traders, led by a brilliant California tech wiz, they can! Micah Lamar, the brain behind one of the most powerful trade-testing softwares on the planet, has uncovered what he calls “The Perfect AAPL Trade.” [>> See this remarkable system in action here <<]( With a groundbreaking combination of indicators, Micah has perfected a system that now carries an almost-70% win rate… And a reward-to-risk ratio of 3-to-1… And he recently shared that system with the public for the very first time. [Click here right away to learn everything about the Perfect Apple Trade]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Article Recap - [My Best Defense In These Markets](#i572731) - [Is Trading AAPL Stock and Finding Meaningful Movement Still Possible?](#156383) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Article Recap - [My Best Defense In These Markets](#i572731) - [Is Trading AAPL Stock and Finding Meaningful Movement Still Possible?](#156383) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States