[] Market momentum is yellow as investors continue to sell off at an outrageous pace. Weâre witnessing what could be the fifth negative momentum event of the year.
[View in browser]( . Market momentum is yellow as investors continue to sell off at an outrageous pace. Weâre witnessing what could be the fifth negative momentum event of the year.
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[Havens Investment Letter] []
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[] It Looks Like It's Happening [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, Momentum is Yellow. We must exercise caution in this environment, as the S&P 500 ETFs’ (SPY) 14-day RSI has plunged from overbought conditions to mid-tier. In previous situations, we’ve seen a complete market breakdown - especially in low-volume environments. Set trailing stops, hedge with cheap inverse ETF options, or move to cash - as it has once again become your best friend. As I noted, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) bounced off its 200-day moving average last week. Since then, there has been a very slow burn for this market downward. The S&P 500’s selloff today hasn’t been a surprise. At the onset of June, I noted that markets were oversold. The SPY had a relative strength index of 32, hedge funds engaged in their largest amount of selling in 15 years, and net shorting was getting out of control. And then… this happened. [S&P 500]( Over the last two months, this market rally has been heavily fueled by short covering. Hedge funds were selling everything they could during any short-term pop during the year's first half. Then they overextended themselves and shorted everything. It only required low volume buying to help fuel this squeeze of the last two months, and that’s why I’m very concerned about a strong selloff. While the S&P 500 jumped from June lows, the index’s volume was low, and momentum turned positive on July 19. However, we just hit overbought territory, and we’re starting to peel off. It appears that the short covering has been epic. Goldman Sachs tracks a basket of the most shorted stocks in this market. That basket jumped more than 45% in two months. Now, these stocks are peeling back. I think that the short-covering rally is over, and we’re about to return to reality in a hurry. How to Hedge in this Market If you’re a long-term buy-and-hold investor - or a short-term momentum trader - it can’t hurt to pick up shares of the S&P 500 Inverse ETF (SH), currently trading at about $15.00. When S&P 500 momentum looks like it might break down, this can serve as a possible hedge on your portfolio. The ETF offers INVERSE returns of 1% for every 1% that the S&P 500 generates as a loss. So, if the S&P 500 falls by 5% in a week, this ETF would gain 5% in the same time period. In these conditions, I tend to hedge against market downturns. However, when momentum goes negative, I expand my position or consider call options on the Inverse ETF to leverage returns of the underlying fund. There are plenty of ways to trade negative market conditions, and market timing is very difficult (if not impossible to do consistently). But when the numbers match up to my sentiment, I prepare myself accordingly. Europe’s Problems Accelerate I feel very badly for Europe right now as we spiral toward the next level of an energy crisis. I have colleagues who trade natural gas, and they’ve said that they won’t even bother trying to short the fuel at all anymore. I’ll circle back on this later, but coal stocks and natural gas stocks continue to roar. Demand for U.S. exports and heating oil will likely explode this year, putting more pressure on inflation and creating market dislocations. As I’ve noted, the United States is not exempt from heating supply problems. We might see companies ship fuels to Europe while shortages hit our own nation in states like Maine. Of course, the reason has nothing to do with “greed” but is due to bad transportation policies that make it very hard to move crude from U.S. ports to other U.S. ports. The Jones Act is a law from the 1920s that makes it illegal for non-U.S. owned, crewed, and built ships to move products between U.S. ports. So… when Maine has a heating problem this year, remember my warning. Meanwhile, in Europe, nations are taking delivery of fuels from Australia as Russia shut down a major pipeline for “Maintenance.” Electricity prices are at new all-time highs. Gas futures hit record highs. And the EU Natural Gas contract just hit an oil equivalent price of $500 per barrel. There will likely be no shorts in the European energy markets this fall. Who knows how high and costly this problem will become? We’ll talk more about this soon, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME}
Chief Analyst, American Markets []
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[] It Looks Like It's Happening [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, Momentum is Yellow. We must exercise caution in this environment, as the S&P 500 ETFs’ (SPY) 14-day RSI has plunged from overbought conditions to mid-tier. In previous situations, we’ve seen a complete market breakdown - especially in low-volume environments. Set trailing stops, hedge with cheap inverse ETF options, or move to cash - as it has once again become your best friend. As I noted, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) bounced off its 200-day moving average last week. Since then, there has been a very slow burn for this market downward. The S&P 500’s selloff today hasn’t been a surprise. At the onset of June, I noted that markets were oversold. The SPY had a relative strength index of 32, hedge funds engaged in their largest amount of selling in 15 years, and net shorting was getting out of control. And then… this happened. [S&P 500]( Over the last two months, this market rally has been heavily fueled by short covering. Hedge funds were selling everything they could during any short-term pop during the year's first half. Then they overextended themselves and shorted everything. It only required low volume buying to help fuel this squeeze of the last two months, and that’s why I’m very concerned about a strong selloff. While the S&P 500 jumped from June lows, the index’s volume was low, and momentum turned positive on July 19. However, we just hit overbought territory, and we’re starting to peel off. It appears that the short covering has been epic. Goldman Sachs tracks a basket of the most shorted stocks in this market. That basket jumped more than 45% in two months. Now, these stocks are peeling back. I think that the short-covering rally is over, and we’re about to return to reality in a hurry. How to Hedge in this Market If you’re a long-term buy-and-hold investor - or a short-term momentum trader - it can’t hurt to pick up shares of the S&P 500 Inverse ETF (SH), currently trading at about $15.00. When S&P 500 momentum looks like it might break down, this can serve as a possible hedge on your portfolio. The ETF offers INVERSE returns of 1% for every 1% that the S&P 500 generates as a loss. So, if the S&P 500 falls by 5% in a week, this ETF would gain 5% in the same time period. In these conditions, I tend to hedge against market downturns. However, when momentum goes negative, I expand my position or consider call options on the Inverse ETF to leverage returns of the underlying fund. There are plenty of ways to trade negative market conditions, and market timing is very difficult (if not impossible to do consistently). But when the numbers match up to my sentiment, I prepare myself accordingly. Europe’s Problems Accelerate I feel very badly for Europe right now as we spiral toward the next level of an energy crisis. I have colleagues who trade natural gas, and they’ve said that they won’t even bother trying to short the fuel at all anymore. I’ll circle back on this later, but coal stocks and natural gas stocks continue to roar. Demand for U.S. exports and heating oil will likely explode this year, putting more pressure on inflation and creating market dislocations. As I’ve noted, the United States is not exempt from heating supply problems. We might see companies ship fuels to Europe while shortages hit our own nation in states like Maine. Of course, the reason has nothing to do with “greed” but is due to bad transportation policies that make it very hard to move crude from U.S. ports to other U.S. ports. The Jones Act is a law from the 1920s that makes it illegal for non-U.S. owned, crewed, and built ships to move products between U.S. ports. So… when Maine has a heating problem this year, remember my warning. Meanwhile, in Europe, nations are taking delivery of fuels from Australia as Russia shut down a major pipeline for “Maintenance.” Electricity prices are at new all-time highs. Gas futures hit record highs. And the EU Natural Gas contract just hit an oil equivalent price of $500 per barrel. There will likely be no shorts in the European energy markets this fall. Who knows how high and costly this problem will become? We’ll talk more about this soon, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME}
Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Reclusive California Tech Wiz Reveals... the Perfect AAPL Trade [Apple products]( [See the reveal of this remarkable system]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Reclusive California Tech Wiz Reveals... the Perfect AAPL Trade [Apple products]( [See the reveal of this remarkable system]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] “NO MORE Altcoins” Crypto Workshop Jeffry Turnmire wants to give you a dire crypto warning: [>> “STOP Buying Altcoins!” <<]( This BTC miner and crypto enthusiast is sharing why this common crypto strategy can be a huge minefield. But, he’s got a higher-probability strategy that he’s wants to share... So [Watch Jeffrey’s timely workshop now!]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] “NO MORE Altcoins” Crypto Workshop Jeffry Turnmire wants to give you a dire crypto warning: [>> “STOP Buying Altcoins!” <<]( This BTC miner and crypto enthusiast is sharing why this common crypto strategy can be a huge minefield. But, he’s got a higher-probability strategy that he’s wants to share... So [Watch Jeffrey’s timely workshop now!]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Article Recap - [It Looks Like It's Happening](#i572731)
- [“NO MORE Altcoinsâ Crypto Workshop](#159761) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Article Recap - [It Looks Like It's Happening](#i572731)
- [“NO MORE Altcoinsâ Crypto Workshop](#159761) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER:
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