Another Dead Cat Bounce... and a Buy Signal

[] Mortgage real estate investment trusts (MREITs) have declined sharply ahead of the Fed’s movements on selling bonds. So, let’s dig deeper into an opportunity here. [View in browser]( . Mortgage real estate investment trusts (MREITs) have declined sharply ahead of the Fed’s movements on selling bonds. So, let’s dig deeper into an opportunity here. [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] World-class trader spots huge moves on regular stocks (NOT options!) He’s one of the internet’s original day traders... He’s a 12-time World Trading Champion... And for nearly 30 years, he hasn’t needed a day job! That’s because he’s made his living from the markets... spotting huge moves of 30%... 60%...and even 100% on little-known stocks! And now he’s inviting you to learn his system! [Click here to get started for just $9!]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] World-class trader spots huge moves on regular stocks (NOT options!) He’s one of the internet’s original day traders... He’s a 12-time World Trading Champion... And for nearly 30 years, he hasn’t needed a day job! That’s because he’s made his living from the markets... spotting huge moves of 30%... 60%...and even 100% on little-known stocks! And now he’s inviting you to learn his system! [Click here to get started for just $9!]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Another Dead Cat Bounce... and a Buy Signal [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, Market momentum is Red. Yes, we had a controlled burn higher on Tuesday as the algorithms squeezed every dollar possible out of a short-term rally. But coming off the Quad Witching on Friday, June 17, there remains very little buying pressure in a low-volume market. Beware of a rug-pulling selloff later this week. Looking at this entire market, it’s clear that investors aren’t in a big hurry to buy in large volumes. The SPY was at about 66% of traditional volume, and the slow move higher signaled that the computers drove the rally. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a selloff on the back of this rally very soon. Institutions have been selling into short-term rallies, the buy-the-dip crowd has recognized this pattern, and markets continue the pace of lower highs and lower lows. Today, let’s discuss the reality of this pattern before targeting a buy in the mortgage market. A Controlled Burn Last week was the largest capital outflow among hedge funds in 15 years. The selling continued at a fast-and-furious pace thanks to speculation about the Fed’s plans for higher rate hikes in July and September. While most traders and investors are looking for a bottom, I’m not seeing it yet. The Fed hasn’t started its Quantitative Tightening program “officially” yet. It still needs to drain $47.5 billion from the market over the next eight days to comply with its goal. Meanwhile, the central bank is well behind the curve on inflation. So the current pace of 2.25% on interest rates isn’t going to tame the real beast that threatens us. At no point in history has the Federal Reserve ever gotten inflation under control until the Fed Funds rate is ABOVE the rate of inflation. So, if inflation does get to 5% in 2023, we must move to that level. For some reason, no one wants to admit this. There is a long way to go, and we’re still in the early innings. My chief concern is that the Fed doesn’t get inflation lower in the next two months. If we have inflation running hot in August, the central bank may need to exercise a rate hike between its July and September meetings. In a low-volume environment of August trading, that could provide another large move down. In addition, the Fed is committed to increasing its tightening to $95 billion in September. I’m not convinced that the bottom will form in this market until the fourth quarter of the year. Be patient, deploy capital into worthwhile trades, and make sure that you’re keeping tight stops. The bottom is not here yet. An Interesting Upgrade I receive a lot of questions about Real Estate with interest rates rising and questions about housing emerging. This week, I observed an interesting upgrade from one of the nation’s best Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) analysts. KBW, an arm of Stifel. Over the weekend, the company upgraded a few agency mortgage REITs to outperform after a massive decline in the space over the last four months. As KBW explained, the spreads on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are significant right now - a stunning two standard deviations from historical averages. As a result, the MBS market’s downside has a lot of cushion at a time when the Fed is preparing to let go of these securities during the tightening schedule. In addition, companies in this space have dramatically reduced their leverage since 2020 and are now trading near their book value. Among the four recommendations, I was struck by AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), which currently trades at around $10.75 and pays a 13.4% dividend. KBW calls the company the “most direct and liquid way” to play it’s upside call on the MReit sector. The risks - of course - are that the Fed might need to raise rates higher than current projections or that private capital doesn’t rush into the market at these values. But higher inflation is a threat to the entire financial sector and the broader market in general. So if you’re going to take risks in the market, it’s best to consider something that has been beaten down in a world of perpetual need: Housing. The dividend should be enough to warrant longer-term buy and hold, with little concern about what’s happening in the next 10 to 18 months. You’ll lock in a great dividend and take advantage of a market that will recover over time. Enjoy your day, [Garrett Sig] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Another Dead Cat Bounce... and a Buy Signal [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, Market momentum is Red. Yes, we had a controlled burn higher on Tuesday as the algorithms squeezed every dollar possible out of a short-term rally. But coming off the Quad Witching on Friday, June 17, there remains very little buying pressure in a low-volume market. Beware of a rug-pulling selloff later this week. Looking at this entire market, it’s clear that investors aren’t in a big hurry to buy in large volumes. The SPY was at about 66% of traditional volume, and the slow move higher signaled that the computers drove the rally. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a selloff on the back of this rally very soon. Institutions have been selling into short-term rallies, the buy-the-dip crowd has recognized this pattern, and markets continue the pace of lower highs and lower lows. Today, let’s discuss the reality of this pattern before targeting a buy in the mortgage market. A Controlled Burn Last week was the largest capital outflow among hedge funds in 15 years. The selling continued at a fast-and-furious pace thanks to speculation about the Fed’s plans for higher rate hikes in July and September. While most traders and investors are looking for a bottom, I’m not seeing it yet. The Fed hasn’t started its Quantitative Tightening program “officially” yet. It still needs to drain $47.5 billion from the market over the next eight days to comply with its goal. Meanwhile, the central bank is well behind the curve on inflation. So the current pace of 2.25% on interest rates isn’t going to tame the real beast that threatens us. At no point in history has the Federal Reserve ever gotten inflation under control until the Fed Funds rate is ABOVE the rate of inflation. So, if inflation does get to 5% in 2023, we must move to that level. For some reason, no one wants to admit this. There is a long way to go, and we’re still in the early innings. My chief concern is that the Fed doesn’t get inflation lower in the next two months. If we have inflation running hot in August, the central bank may need to exercise a rate hike between its July and September meetings. In a low-volume environment of August trading, that could provide another large move down. In addition, the Fed is committed to increasing its tightening to $95 billion in September. I’m not convinced that the bottom will form in this market until the fourth quarter of the year. Be patient, deploy capital into worthwhile trades, and make sure that you’re keeping tight stops. The bottom is not here yet. An Interesting Upgrade I receive a lot of questions about Real Estate with interest rates rising and questions about housing emerging. This week, I observed an interesting upgrade from one of the nation’s best Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) analysts. KBW, an arm of Stifel. Over the weekend, the company upgraded a few agency mortgage REITs to outperform after a massive decline in the space over the last four months. As KBW explained, the spreads on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are significant right now - a stunning two standard deviations from historical averages. As a result, the MBS market’s downside has a lot of cushion at a time when the Fed is preparing to let go of these securities during the tightening schedule. In addition, companies in this space have dramatically reduced their leverage since 2020 and are now trading near their book value. Among the four recommendations, I was struck by AGNC Investment Corp (AGNC), which currently trades at around $10.75 and pays a 13.4% dividend. KBW calls the company the “most direct and liquid way” to play it’s upside call on the MReit sector. The risks - of course - are that the Fed might need to raise rates higher than current projections or that private capital doesn’t rush into the market at these values. But higher inflation is a threat to the entire financial sector and the broader market in general. So if you’re going to take risks in the market, it’s best to consider something that has been beaten down in a world of perpetual need: Housing. The dividend should be enough to warrant longer-term buy and hold, with little concern about what’s happening in the next 10 to 18 months. You’ll lock in a great dividend and take advantage of a market that will recover over time. Enjoy your day, [Garrett Sig] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Bitcoin Bull Declares: “STOP Buying Altcoins!” [bitcoin bull]( [Join him for this FREE crypto workshop to learn his higher-probability strategy]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Bitcoin Bull Declares: “STOP Buying Altcoins!” [bitcoin bull]( [Join him for this FREE crypto workshop to learn his higher-probability strategy]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Now Available: The Brainchild of Wall Street Mavericks — the Perfect Apple Trade If you ever thought that it’s way too late to see significant movement in major stocks like AAPL... 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You need to think again… The Perfect Apple Trade Has Been Discovered Thanks to the help of a maverick group of former Wall Street traders… and a state-of-the-art artificial intelligence platform… California tech wiz and renowned trader Micah Lamar has uncovered obscure “trade cycles” in AAPL shares capable of signaling major movement… All in a matter of days... These Aren’t Common Results Nearly all market analysts are clueless about these moves… But Micah’s proprietary system has been able to predict significant moves in AAPL stock… over and over again. Now, You Can See the System for Yourself! He’ll walk you through his AAPL system step-by-step… and answer the most common questions he sees... 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DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States