When a Market Crack Becomes Capitulation | Amazon: Why The "Always Winner” Is Vulnerable After All!

[] Apple stock plunged 5% today, and investors are starting to panic about one of the most important stocks in the market. Capitulation is coming. Also, Amazon stock cratered after the company reported disappointing quarterly results. Is the e-commerce juggernaut on the decline? [View in browser]( . Apple stock plunged 5% today, and investors are starting to panic about one of the most important stocks in the market. Capitulation is coming. Also, Amazon stock cratered after the company reported disappointing quarterly results. Is the e-commerce juggernaut on the decline? [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] Has this trading millionaire destroyed the newsletter game? The days of waiting for monthly stock picks are over. Legendary trader Rob Booker decided to destroy the newsletter for good... He’s going to text you his best stock ideas, the moment he discovers them. And he’s going to take your questions as he goes. [Get Rob’s private cell phone number here.]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Has this trading millionaire destroyed the newsletter game? The days of waiting for monthly stock picks are over. Legendary trader Rob Booker decided to destroy the newsletter for good... He’s going to text you his best stock ideas, the moment he discovers them. And he’s going to take your questions as he goes. [Get Rob’s private cell phone number here.]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] AMZN: The “Always Winner” Is Vulnerable After All [Bauer Pic]Dear Investor, “One day Amazon (AMZN) will go under. I’m telling you that right now.” You may still remember this quote from 2018. It comes from none other than Amazon founder Jeff Bezos himself. At the time, the billionaire had urged his workforce and shareholders that the group was not "too big to fail." Even Amazon could disappear into irrelevance at some point, Bezos said. Now, some four years after Bezos’s doomsday fantasy, the corporation is indeed starting to show cracks. Sure, Amazon is still the most important e-commerce player in the world and also a leader in the cloud. Nevertheless, the latest quarterly figures show that the tech giant now has to bake smaller rolls. Weak Q1 Figures Perhaps you have already read it in the media: Amazon was able to achieve sales of "only" $116.4 billion in the first quarter of 2022. That is, of course, a gigantic figure. Compared to the same quarter last year, however, revenues rose by just 7%. This is a bitter pill to swallow for a company that is otherwise so accustomed to success, and the weakest growth in around two decades. But that is by no means all: Amazon achieved an operating profit of only $3.7 billion in Q1. This compares to $8.9 billion in the same period last year. Inflation Cools Online Commerce By the way, the e-commerce giant justifies the weak figures primarily with inflation effects. The pandemic and the Ukraine war, for example, had ensured that consumers had significantly reduced their consumption. These were unusual challenges, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who has been in office since 2021, had to concede. In fact, in response to rising energy prices in the U.S., Amazon had already significantly increased the cost of its "Prime" fast delivery service. In addition, an inflation surcharge is to be introduced for those retailers who use Amazon’s logistics sites. All of this means that end customers on Amazon’s Marketplace will have to dig deeper into their pockets. In times of horrendous living costs, this is an additional burden that many consumers apparently don’t want to put up with. High Personnel Costs In addition, Amazon has invested heavily in expanding its workforce in the last two years. Whereas the company had just under 1.3 million employees under contract at the beginning of 2020, it already had 1.62 million at the beginning of 2022. This goes hand in hand with enormous additional costs for the workforce, whose potential has now not been able to unfold due to weaker demand in Q1. Net Loss Due To Rivian Flap Particularly bitter: The bottom line was that Amazon did not even make a profit in the first three months of the year. For the first time in seven years, the tech giant posted a net loss of $3.8 billion. By comparison, in Q1 2021, the company had still earned $8.1 billion on the bottom line. In addition to the difficulties in the operating business, the net loss was mainly due to an impairment loss on the investment in electric carmaker Rivian. This special item alone accounted for a loss of $7.6 billion. The U.S. company Rivian wants to sell a total of 100,000 all-electric vans to Amazon by the end of the 2020s to improve its climate footprint. Amazon holds more than 17% of Rivian shares and is therefore dependent on its share price. In any case, Rivian’s share price fell sharply in the first quarter, losing about half of its value after the stock shot up shortly after the IPO in November 2021. Apparently, there are growing concerns in the capital market as to whether the young, highly loss-making e-car maker can deliver on its growth promise. Q2 Forecast Disappoints As if all this wasn’t bad enough, Amazon was also disappointed with its business forecast. For the current quarter, the group expects sales of between $116 and $121 billion. In the worst case scenario, that would be revenue stagnation compared to Q1. Something that seemed unthinkable at Amazon until now. There was also great uncertainty in the profit forecast. Amazon expects an operating result between minus one and plus three billion dollars for Q2. A pretty wide range, then - and a high probability of being in the red. My Conclusion For You The tech giant, often dubbed the "always-winner" in recent years, is teetering. The latest quarterly figures show more than clearly that the group is vulnerable and far from being above things. No wonder, then, that Amazon shares reacted to the publication of the balance sheet data (Thursday evening) with a whopping minus. Between April 29 and May 2, the paper crashed by 16%. [AMZN Stock]( It now remains to be seen whether Amazon can get a grip on inflationary pressures in the remainder of the year. For example, the group plans to use more robots in its logistics centers in the future to reduce personnel costs. Another bright spot is the cloud division AWS. Its revenue shot up 37% in Q1 to $18.4 billion - and its operating profit improved by 43%. Unlike Alphabet’s cloud business, for example, AWS has long been highly profitable and is probably the company’s most important growth pillar. Investors can continue to expect very strong potential here. All in all, however, Amazon stock is currently a risky bet in my opinion, and you can easily burn your fingers on it. This is primarily due to the economic impact of the Ukraine war, the extent of which can only be speculated at present. Best regards, [Bauer Sig] Dr. Gregor Bauer Chief Analyst, European Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] AMZN: The “Always Winner” Is Vulnerable After All [Bauer Pic]Dear Investor, “One day Amazon (AMZN) will go under. I’m telling you that right now.” You may still remember this quote from 2018. It comes from none other than Amazon founder Jeff Bezos himself. At the time, the billionaire had urged his workforce and shareholders that the group was not "too big to fail." Even Amazon could disappear into irrelevance at some point, Bezos said. Now, some four years after Bezos’s doomsday fantasy, the corporation is indeed starting to show cracks. Sure, Amazon is still the most important e-commerce player in the world and also a leader in the cloud. Nevertheless, the latest quarterly figures show that the tech giant now has to bake smaller rolls. Weak Q1 Figures Perhaps you have already read it in the media: Amazon was able to achieve sales of "only" $116.4 billion in the first quarter of 2022. That is, of course, a gigantic figure. Compared to the same quarter last year, however, revenues rose by just 7%. This is a bitter pill to swallow for a company that is otherwise so accustomed to success, and the weakest growth in around two decades. But that is by no means all: Amazon achieved an operating profit of only $3.7 billion in Q1. This compares to $8.9 billion in the same period last year. Inflation Cools Online Commerce By the way, the e-commerce giant justifies the weak figures primarily with inflation effects. The pandemic and the Ukraine war, for example, had ensured that consumers had significantly reduced their consumption. These were unusual challenges, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who has been in office since 2021, had to concede. In fact, in response to rising energy prices in the U.S., Amazon had already significantly increased the cost of its "Prime" fast delivery service. In addition, an inflation surcharge is to be introduced for those retailers who use Amazon’s logistics sites. All of this means that end customers on Amazon’s Marketplace will have to dig deeper into their pockets. In times of horrendous living costs, this is an additional burden that many consumers apparently don’t want to put up with. High Personnel Costs In addition, Amazon has invested heavily in expanding its workforce in the last two years. Whereas the company had just under 1.3 million employees under contract at the beginning of 2020, it already had 1.62 million at the beginning of 2022. This goes hand in hand with enormous additional costs for the workforce, whose potential has now not been able to unfold due to weaker demand in Q1. Net Loss Due To Rivian Flap Particularly bitter: The bottom line was that Amazon did not even make a profit in the first three months of the year. For the first time in seven years, the tech giant posted a net loss of $3.8 billion. By comparison, in Q1 2021, the company had still earned $8.1 billion on the bottom line. In addition to the difficulties in the operating business, the net loss was mainly due to an impairment loss on the investment in electric carmaker Rivian. This special item alone accounted for a loss of $7.6 billion. The U.S. company Rivian wants to sell a total of 100,000 all-electric vans to Amazon by the end of the 2020s to improve its climate footprint. Amazon holds more than 17% of Rivian shares and is therefore dependent on its share price. In any case, Rivian’s share price fell sharply in the first quarter, losing about half of its value after the stock shot up shortly after the IPO in November 2021. Apparently, there are growing concerns in the capital market as to whether the young, highly loss-making e-car maker can deliver on its growth promise. Q2 Forecast Disappoints As if all this wasn’t bad enough, Amazon was also disappointed with its business forecast. For the current quarter, the group expects sales of between $116 and $121 billion. In the worst case scenario, that would be revenue stagnation compared to Q1. Something that seemed unthinkable at Amazon until now. There was also great uncertainty in the profit forecast. Amazon expects an operating result between minus one and plus three billion dollars for Q2. A pretty wide range, then - and a high probability of being in the red. My Conclusion For You The tech giant, often dubbed the "always-winner" in recent years, is teetering. The latest quarterly figures show more than clearly that the group is vulnerable and far from being above things. No wonder, then, that Amazon shares reacted to the publication of the balance sheet data (Thursday evening) with a whopping minus. Between April 29 and May 2, the paper crashed by 16%. [AMZN Stock]( It now remains to be seen whether Amazon can get a grip on inflationary pressures in the remainder of the year. For example, the group plans to use more robots in its logistics centers in the future to reduce personnel costs. Another bright spot is the cloud division AWS. Its revenue shot up 37% in Q1 to $18.4 billion - and its operating profit improved by 43%. Unlike Alphabet’s cloud business, for example, AWS has long been highly profitable and is probably the company’s most important growth pillar. Investors can continue to expect very strong potential here. All in all, however, Amazon stock is currently a risky bet in my opinion, and you can easily burn your fingers on it. This is primarily due to the economic impact of the Ukraine war, the extent of which can only be speculated at present. Best regards, [Bauer Sig] Dr. Gregor Bauer Chief Analyst, European Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] A Chance To MAKE $490 EVERY DAY THE MARKET IS OPEN? [rob booker]( [Click Now For Details]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] A Chance To MAKE $490 EVERY DAY THE MARKET IS OPEN? [rob booker]( [Click Now For Details]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] When a Market Crack Becomes Capitulation [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, Cash remains your best friend. Momentum is red… I hope you’ve been paying attention because I’ve been beating this message hard since January, especially since early April. This market is the worst I’ve seen since March 2020 and rivals December 2018 in terms of volatility and the lack of buyers. The NASDAQ 100 shed another 2.7% today, and SARK (the short fund that targets Cathie Wood’s stocks) added nearly 10%. What’s insane to me: The VIX is still at only 33. If we move to 40, I’m not sure what will be left in this market. Valuation compression has accelerated. Everything I’ve been warning about to start the year has come to fruition. So I’m not beating my chest. I’m saying, very matter-of-factly, that we are in a bear market, and we want to prepare for the other side of the “2022 financial crisis.” How do we trade in a Bear Market? So Goes Apple On October 20, 2021, I wrote in Haven Investment Letter that Apple Inc. (AAPL) is the single most crucial stock trading today. It sits in more than 300 exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It is owned by pension funds, hedge funds, and pretty much every retail investor, whether they know it. If you own the SPY Trust, you own Apple. If you trade the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), you own Apple. If you have a pension or a college fund, I’d be shocked if Apple isn’t in the portfolio. As I noted: “So goes Apple, so goes the U.S. market.” Apple and Tesla have been the two stocks hedge funds and institutions cling to. Everyone - and I mean - everyone holds the bullish case for both stocks. But when the market begins to break - and the capitulation kicks in, neither are safe. Today, Apple’s 5% drop should be the final wake-up call to the market. We've been about to enter a bear market for Apple stock since the start of the year, and the safety for Apple isn’t at $140… it’s at $100 per share. I am looking at June 17, 2022, $120 put on Apple as a trade because it is so ugly that it’s worth the $1.25 bet. If Apple and Tesla go, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 could channel down another 10% to 15%. There’s no safety in this market… except cash - which IS A POSITION. We move to cash and target inverse funds and puts when momentum is negative. When momentum turns positive, we close the shorts and ride the capital wave moving back into the market. We’re nowhere close to calling that bottom. Playing in Bear Market In a bear market, which we’re in, whether people want to argue about it, you have to change your strategy a bit. I’ve outlined in recent issues the community banking strategy championed by Tim Melvin… and the liquidation strategy that gives us companies like US Steel (X) and Hurco (HURC). Fundamentals matter. So, you want companies with solid balance sheets, excellent cash flow, solid assets in real estate and tangible goods, and low valuation multiples. Instead of buying stocks at current levels, you want to look at the cheap ones and have liquid options chains. You can sell cash secured puts or credit spreads on some of these companies well. Then, if they hit the strike price, you buy an outstanding stock at a great price, and you know that they are real businesses. The list below consists of stocks with strong-yet-cheap cash flow, sound balance sheets, and trade under their liquidation value. Plus, they trade at attractive EV-EBIT (enterprise value over earnings before interest and tax), attracting a private equity buyer. Don’t buy these stocks all at once. Instead, buy a few shares, and if the market charges lower, pick up a few more shares. Then, buy in tranches and eat like a bird. [[Stock List] Click to Enlargen]( If momentum does bounce back, I expect these will be the places where a lot of institutional capital will flow. People will be very skittish about trying to buy anything at extreme price-to-sales ratios. Now is the time to start to plan. Build your cash, build your cash, build your cash. Then, when the buying begins and we are liquid, it will set you up to find incredible deals with 50%, 75%, and 100% upside in the next two years. These opportunities only come around every few years. Enjoy your day, [Garrett Sig] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] When a Market Crack Becomes Capitulation [Garrett Pic] Dear Investor, Cash remains your best friend. Momentum is red… I hope you’ve been paying attention because I’ve been beating this message hard since January, especially since early April. This market is the worst I’ve seen since March 2020 and rivals December 2018 in terms of volatility and the lack of buyers. The NASDAQ 100 shed another 2.7% today, and SARK (the short fund that targets Cathie Wood’s stocks) added nearly 10%. What’s insane to me: The VIX is still at only 33. If we move to 40, I’m not sure what will be left in this market. Valuation compression has accelerated. Everything I’ve been warning about to start the year has come to fruition. So I’m not beating my chest. I’m saying, very matter-of-factly, that we are in a bear market, and we want to prepare for the other side of the “2022 financial crisis.” How do we trade in a Bear Market? So Goes Apple On October 20, 2021, I wrote in Haven Investment Letter that Apple Inc. (AAPL) is the single most crucial stock trading today. It sits in more than 300 exchange-traded funds (ETFs). It is owned by pension funds, hedge funds, and pretty much every retail investor, whether they know it. If you own the SPY Trust, you own Apple. If you trade the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), you own Apple. If you have a pension or a college fund, I’d be shocked if Apple isn’t in the portfolio. As I noted: “So goes Apple, so goes the U.S. market.” Apple and Tesla have been the two stocks hedge funds and institutions cling to. Everyone - and I mean - everyone holds the bullish case for both stocks. But when the market begins to break - and the capitulation kicks in, neither are safe. Today, Apple’s 5% drop should be the final wake-up call to the market. We've been about to enter a bear market for Apple stock since the start of the year, and the safety for Apple isn’t at $140… it’s at $100 per share. I am looking at June 17, 2022, $120 put on Apple as a trade because it is so ugly that it’s worth the $1.25 bet. If Apple and Tesla go, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 could channel down another 10% to 15%. There’s no safety in this market… except cash - which IS A POSITION. We move to cash and target inverse funds and puts when momentum is negative. When momentum turns positive, we close the shorts and ride the capital wave moving back into the market. We’re nowhere close to calling that bottom. Playing in Bear Market In a bear market, which we’re in, whether people want to argue about it, you have to change your strategy a bit. I’ve outlined in recent issues the community banking strategy championed by Tim Melvin… and the liquidation strategy that gives us companies like US Steel (X) and Hurco (HURC). Fundamentals matter. So, you want companies with solid balance sheets, excellent cash flow, solid assets in real estate and tangible goods, and low valuation multiples. Instead of buying stocks at current levels, you want to look at the cheap ones and have liquid options chains. You can sell cash secured puts or credit spreads on some of these companies well. Then, if they hit the strike price, you buy an outstanding stock at a great price, and you know that they are real businesses. The list below consists of stocks with strong-yet-cheap cash flow, sound balance sheets, and trade under their liquidation value. Plus, they trade at attractive EV-EBIT (enterprise value over earnings before interest and tax), attracting a private equity buyer. Don’t buy these stocks all at once. Instead, buy a few shares, and if the market charges lower, pick up a few more shares. Then, buy in tranches and eat like a bird. [[Stock List] Click to Enlargen]( If momentum does bounce back, I expect these will be the places where a lot of institutional capital will flow. People will be very skittish about trying to buy anything at extreme price-to-sales ratios. Now is the time to start to plan. Build your cash, build your cash, build your cash. Then, when the buying begins and we are liquid, it will set you up to find incredible deals with 50%, 75%, and 100% upside in the next two years. These opportunities only come around every few years. Enjoy your day, [Garrett Sig] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] If you’re trading everyday, and tired of wasting hours looking for the perfect trade setup, while your account hemorrhages money, then KEEP READING… This could change EVERYTHING. Every morning for the last few months, a notorious market veteran has been quietly sending out a list of his favorite high-potential stock picks to a small, select group of successful traders… And [open enrollment is still available to the public.]( A rare opportunity for everyday traders just like you! Every day, before the market even opens, you could be receiving this legendary trader’s personal “hot sheet” of top stock picks for the day. Stocks that have the highest probabilities of moving 5% to 10% in just a couple of hours each trading day. Giving you, starting as soon as tomorrow, a shot at making $490 (or more) every single day the market is open. A potential $98,000 a year in trading profits… All by simply following the same trading watch list of this seasoned trading pro. But you have to move fast… we don’t know how long this opportunity for the general public to join will last. [>>CLICK HERE NOW TO SIGN UP]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] If you’re trading everyday, and tired of wasting hours looking for the perfect trade setup, while your account hemorrhages money, then KEEP READING… This could change EVERYTHING. Every morning for the last few months, a notorious market veteran has been quietly sending out a list of his favorite high-potential stock picks to a small, select group of successful traders… And [open enrollment is still available to the public.]( A rare opportunity for everyday traders just like you! Every day, before the market even opens, you could be receiving this legendary trader’s personal “hot sheet” of top stock picks for the day. Stocks that have the highest probabilities of moving 5% to 10% in just a couple of hours each trading day. Giving you, starting as soon as tomorrow, a shot at making $490 (or more) every single day the market is open. A potential $98,000 a year in trading profits… All by simply following the same trading watch list of this seasoned trading pro. But you have to move fast… we don’t know how long this opportunity for the general public to join will last. [>>CLICK HERE NOW TO SIGN UP]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Article Recap - [AMZN: The “Always Winner” Is Vulnerable After All](#i572731) - [When a Market Crack Becomes Capitulation](#i572028) - [This could change EVERYTHING.](#156388) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Article Recap - [AMZN: The “Always Winner” Is Vulnerable After All](#i572731) - [When a Market Crack Becomes Capitulation](#i572028) - [This could change EVERYTHING.](#156388) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States