Eye of the Storm? | Alleghany Stock Surges On Berkshire Hathaway Takeover Offer

[] Investors are piling back into meme stocks and profit-less companies. It’s starting to feel like 2020 and 2021 all over again. Perhaps it’s time to take part in this frenzy… or not. Also, what does Berkshire Hathaway’s takeover offer mean for Alleghany stock? [View in browser]( . Investors are piling back into meme stocks and profit-less companies. It’s starting to feel like 2020 and 2021 all over again. Perhaps it’s time to take part in this frenzy… or not. Also, what does Berkshire Hathaway’s takeover offer mean for Alleghany stock? [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] Did This California Tech Wiz Discover... The Perfect AAPL Trade? One reclusive tech genius in California used his powerful trade-testing software to perfect his system for trading AAPL. The results so far -- a 70% win rate and a 3-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio. [Click here to catch the recent reveal of the "Perfect" Apple Trade]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Did This California Tech Wiz Discover... The Perfect AAPL Trade? One reclusive tech genius in California used his powerful trade-testing software to perfect his system for trading AAPL. The results so far -- a 70% win rate and a 3-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio. [Click here to catch the recent reveal of the "Perfect" Apple Trade]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Eye of the Storm? [Garrett Pic]Dear Investor, Investors are piling back into stocks with momentum solid green in a frenzy. Capital inflows are getting stronger following months of investor speculation over rising interest rates and two months of worries over Russia-Ukraine. Beaten down stocks like Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Electric Last Mile Solutions (ELMS), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) are rallying. A headline at Seeking Alpha boasts: “Cathie Wood’s ARKK triples the return rally of the S&P 500 over the past two weeks.” All this tells us is that speculative capital is back off the sideline in a major way. Wood is a momentum investor, and although we see a rally - I still maintain that it’d be much more comforting if corporate insiders at the companies in which Wood invests were also buying their stock at current levels. Alas, most insiders are still staying off the sideline. The last two days have witnessed a significant rotation of capital out of the energy and materials space and into consumer cyclical, telecommunications, and technology stocks. This isn’t surprising. As the markets monitor “progress” around the Russia-Ukraine conflict - the wave of speculative capital that fueled big moves in commodity prices in the last six weeks is now transitioning back to capture some short-term gains on more speculative names. Energy Fundamentals Oil prices pulled back again Tuesday on news that Russia was pulling back troops from Kyiv. In addition, reports indicated that Russia and Ukraine had made progress on peace talks. Meanwhile, China’s new lockdowns could reduce demand in the short term on the demand side. Despite this short-term move, I continue to remind readers that the fundamentals for higher oil prices are in place. Moreover, the U.S. isn’t sitting on significant reserves ahead of a busy driving season. The Securities Exchange Commission just submitted new rules that would require all public companies to track their carbon emissions and examine their energy sources. This is a very dramatic expansion of regulatory oversight and will likely increase domestic energy prices over time (as shareholders likely push for more renewable energy use). But the bigger story is that ESG efforts are starving capital from the expiration space when renewable sources are incapable of replacing baseload capacity for our energy systems. More importantly, most solar and wind sources aren’t poised to make a dent into the primary use case of oil: Transportation. But the bigger story is that ESG efforts are starving capital from the expiration space when renewable sources are incapable of replacing baseload capacity for our energy systems. More importantly, most solar and wind sources aren’t poised to make a dent into the primary use case of oil: Transportation. In the U.S., the Department of Energy projects that oil and gas use will go UP over the next three decades, while renewable sources primarily tackle the electricity generation part of the energy supply. With oil prices increasing (and the cost of capital surging for oil and gas producers), most traditional oil producers refuse to increase their production. Many companies don’t want to expand drilling - a capital-intensive business. Some producers have said they won’t even drill if the price of U.S. crude increases to $200 per barrel. Instead, they are content to use available cash flow to increase dividends, extend buybacks, or pay off debt. The problem doesn’t extend to U.S. producers. This is happening around the world. And it’s likely to accelerate in the years ahead. Moody’s said last November that the global oil-and-gas industry is short about $500 billion in capital required to produce enough oil to meet global demand. This is a major challenge. As the Fed continues to raise interest rates and the economy faces higher oil prices in the future, it’s important to maintain some caution despite this recent rally. When Insider Buying Goes Bad Yesterday, I highlighted the movement of ORIC Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) after a big move on Monday. Months after shares fell more than 80%, the CEO stepped in and purchased $1.74 million in shares. The purchase precedes an upcoming conference where the company provides three presentations on the progress of various drugs in production. Remember - this insider buying is legal. The insider buying that I highlighted requires filing a FORM 4 document with the Securities Exchange Commission. In the case of a FORM 4 document, the executive notes that they have bought or sold stock with their own money. That can’t be confused with “Insider Trading,” an illegal practice where someone uses inside (non-public) information to make a trade and profit. Take the case of Twilio, a software company. This week, the SEC charged three engineers with using and sharing confidential information with friends and family around the company. With this non-public information, this group traded their company’s stock ahead of its May 2020 earnings report. They made $1 million by trading the stock on this information. Just remember, we buy what the CEO and the CFO are buying. We shake our heads at the people who still think they can get away with insider trading in today’s heavily monitored world. We'll talk again tomorrow, [Garrett Sig] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Eye of the Storm? [Garrett Pic]Dear Investor, Investors are piling back into stocks with momentum solid green in a frenzy. Capital inflows are getting stronger following months of investor speculation over rising interest rates and two months of worries over Russia-Ukraine. Beaten down stocks like Lordstown Motors (RIDE), Electric Last Mile Solutions (ELMS), and Virgin Galactic (SPCE) are rallying. A headline at Seeking Alpha boasts: “Cathie Wood’s ARKK triples the return rally of the S&P 500 over the past two weeks.” All this tells us is that speculative capital is back off the sideline in a major way. Wood is a momentum investor, and although we see a rally - I still maintain that it’d be much more comforting if corporate insiders at the companies in which Wood invests were also buying their stock at current levels. Alas, most insiders are still staying off the sideline. The last two days have witnessed a significant rotation of capital out of the energy and materials space and into consumer cyclical, telecommunications, and technology stocks. This isn’t surprising. As the markets monitor “progress” around the Russia-Ukraine conflict - the wave of speculative capital that fueled big moves in commodity prices in the last six weeks is now transitioning back to capture some short-term gains on more speculative names. Energy Fundamentals Oil prices pulled back again Tuesday on news that Russia was pulling back troops from Kyiv. In addition, reports indicated that Russia and Ukraine had made progress on peace talks. Meanwhile, China’s new lockdowns could reduce demand in the short term on the demand side. Despite this short-term move, I continue to remind readers that the fundamentals for higher oil prices are in place. Moreover, the U.S. isn’t sitting on significant reserves ahead of a busy driving season. The Securities Exchange Commission just submitted new rules that would require all public companies to track their carbon emissions and examine their energy sources. This is a very dramatic expansion of regulatory oversight and will likely increase domestic energy prices over time (as shareholders likely push for more renewable energy use). But the bigger story is that ESG efforts are starving capital from the expiration space when renewable sources are incapable of replacing baseload capacity for our energy systems. More importantly, most solar and wind sources aren’t poised to make a dent into the primary use case of oil: Transportation. But the bigger story is that ESG efforts are starving capital from the expiration space when renewable sources are incapable of replacing baseload capacity for our energy systems. More importantly, most solar and wind sources aren’t poised to make a dent into the primary use case of oil: Transportation. In the U.S., the Department of Energy projects that oil and gas use will go UP over the next three decades, while renewable sources primarily tackle the electricity generation part of the energy supply. With oil prices increasing (and the cost of capital surging for oil and gas producers), most traditional oil producers refuse to increase their production. Many companies don’t want to expand drilling - a capital-intensive business. Some producers have said they won’t even drill if the price of U.S. crude increases to $200 per barrel. Instead, they are content to use available cash flow to increase dividends, extend buybacks, or pay off debt. The problem doesn’t extend to U.S. producers. This is happening around the world. And it’s likely to accelerate in the years ahead. Moody’s said last November that the global oil-and-gas industry is short about $500 billion in capital required to produce enough oil to meet global demand. This is a major challenge. As the Fed continues to raise interest rates and the economy faces higher oil prices in the future, it’s important to maintain some caution despite this recent rally. When Insider Buying Goes Bad Yesterday, I highlighted the movement of ORIC Pharmaceuticals (ORIC) after a big move on Monday. Months after shares fell more than 80%, the CEO stepped in and purchased $1.74 million in shares. The purchase precedes an upcoming conference where the company provides three presentations on the progress of various drugs in production. Remember - this insider buying is legal. The insider buying that I highlighted requires filing a FORM 4 document with the Securities Exchange Commission. In the case of a FORM 4 document, the executive notes that they have bought or sold stock with their own money. That can’t be confused with “Insider Trading,” an illegal practice where someone uses inside (non-public) information to make a trade and profit. Take the case of Twilio, a software company. This week, the SEC charged three engineers with using and sharing confidential information with friends and family around the company. With this non-public information, this group traded their company’s stock ahead of its May 2020 earnings report. They made $1 million by trading the stock on this information. Just remember, we buy what the CEO and the CFO are buying. We shake our heads at the people who still think they can get away with insider trading in today’s heavily monitored world. We'll talk again tomorrow, [Garrett Sig] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] 20-year Trading Legend Reveals His Daily "Hot List" Of Stocks... [rob booker]( [CLICK HERE TO GET THE LIST!]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] 20-year Trading Legend Reveals His Daily "Hot List" Of Stocks... [rob booker]( [CLICK HERE TO GET THE LIST!]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] Alleghany Stock Surges [Bauer Pic]Dear Investor, At the beginning of March, two insiders took advantage of a price setback to further expand their share position in the US insurance group Alleghany (Y). Less than three weeks later, the share price shot up massively. The reason is a takeover offer from Warren Buffett's investment firm Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). The billion-dollar investment is intended to massively expand the insurance business. [Y stock]( The deal is Berkshire's largest since its acquisition of Precision Castparts in 2016. It's unlikely to be the last deal, however - after all, Berkshire is sitting on cash holdings of $146.72 billion (as of the end of 2021). Warren Buffett Puts $11.6 Billion On The Table For Insurance Group This was big news for value investors. Buffett has not made an acquisition for a long time due to the high share prices, but the investment icon is now becoming active again. His significant increase in Occidental Petroleum shares has now been followed by an offer for Alleghany. Buffett is putting a takeover bid of $11.6 billion on the table for the insurance group. That’s $848.02 dollars per share. The price is around 25% above the closing price before the takeover was announced and corresponds to 1.26 times the book value of the company. Why The Deal Makes Strategic Sense For Buffett With the transaction, Berkshire Hathaway aims to selectively expand its own insurance portfolio. So far, the investment company already owns the auto insurer Geico and the reinsurer General Re. Alleghany itself is a company with a long tradition, founded in 1929. Alleghany's core business is property and casualty reinsurance and insurance, but like Berkshire, it also owns several other businesses. For example, its portfolio includes a steel manufacturer and a toy company. The group also manages an investment portfolio. Edward Jones analyst Jim Shanahan estimates that these operating units may have been responsible for about one-third of total revenue last year. In 2021, Alleghany generated $12 billion in revenue (+34% vs. 2020). The company ended up with a profit of $1.03 billion on its books. Alleghany To Remain Independent In Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2022, at which point Alleghany will operate as an independent unit of Berkshire Hathaway. Yet Buffett knows the company extremely well. According to his own statement, the star investor has been following the business for 60 years. In addition, the current Alleghany company boss Joe Brandon previously headed one of Berkshire's reinsurance companies for seven years. Bidding War Unlikely Alleghany now has 25 days to actively solicit and consider alternative takeover bids under a "go-shop" clause. If another buyer offers a higher price for Alleghany, Berkshire could lose the deal. However, that is not likely to happen. As a rule, Buffett avoids bidding wars and very rarely increases his original offer. In addition, a major shareholder (the Kirby family) has already commented favorably on the takeover bid. Best regards, [Bauer Sig] Dr. Gregor Bauer Chief Analyst, European Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Alleghany Stock Surges [Bauer Pic]Dear Investor, At the beginning of March, two insiders took advantage of a price setback to further expand their share position in the US insurance group Alleghany (Y). Less than three weeks later, the share price shot up massively. The reason is a takeover offer from Warren Buffett's investment firm Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B). The billion-dollar investment is intended to massively expand the insurance business. [Y stock]( The deal is Berkshire's largest since its acquisition of Precision Castparts in 2016. It's unlikely to be the last deal, however - after all, Berkshire is sitting on cash holdings of $146.72 billion (as of the end of 2021). Warren Buffett Puts $11.6 Billion On The Table For Insurance Group This was big news for value investors. Buffett has not made an acquisition for a long time due to the high share prices, but the investment icon is now becoming active again. His significant increase in Occidental Petroleum shares has now been followed by an offer for Alleghany. Buffett is putting a takeover bid of $11.6 billion on the table for the insurance group. That’s $848.02 dollars per share. The price is around 25% above the closing price before the takeover was announced and corresponds to 1.26 times the book value of the company. Why The Deal Makes Strategic Sense For Buffett With the transaction, Berkshire Hathaway aims to selectively expand its own insurance portfolio. So far, the investment company already owns the auto insurer Geico and the reinsurer General Re. Alleghany itself is a company with a long tradition, founded in 1929. Alleghany's core business is property and casualty reinsurance and insurance, but like Berkshire, it also owns several other businesses. For example, its portfolio includes a steel manufacturer and a toy company. The group also manages an investment portfolio. Edward Jones analyst Jim Shanahan estimates that these operating units may have been responsible for about one-third of total revenue last year. In 2021, Alleghany generated $12 billion in revenue (+34% vs. 2020). The company ended up with a profit of $1.03 billion on its books. Alleghany To Remain Independent In Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2022, at which point Alleghany will operate as an independent unit of Berkshire Hathaway. Yet Buffett knows the company extremely well. According to his own statement, the star investor has been following the business for 60 years. In addition, the current Alleghany company boss Joe Brandon previously headed one of Berkshire's reinsurance companies for seven years. Bidding War Unlikely Alleghany now has 25 days to actively solicit and consider alternative takeover bids under a "go-shop" clause. If another buyer offers a higher price for Alleghany, Berkshire could lose the deal. However, that is not likely to happen. As a rule, Buffett avoids bidding wars and very rarely increases his original offer. In addition, a major shareholder (the Kirby family) has already commented favorably on the takeover bid. Best regards, [Bauer Sig] Dr. Gregor Bauer Chief Analyst, European Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] If you’re trading everyday, and tired of wasting hours looking for the perfect trade setup, while your account hemorrhages money, then KEEP READING… This could change EVERYTHING. Every morning for the last few months, a notorious market veteran has been quietly sending out a list of his favorite high-potential stock picks to a small, select group of successful traders… And [open enrollment is still available to the public.]( A rare opportunity for everyday traders just like you! Every day, before the market even opens, you could be receiving this legendary trader’s personal “hot sheet” of top stock picks for the day. Stocks that have the highest probabilities of moving 5% to 10% in just a couple of hours each trading day. Giving you, starting as soon as tomorrow, a shot at making $490 (or more) every single day the market is open. A potential $98,000 a year in trading profits… All by simply following the same trading watch list of this seasoned trading pro. But you have to move fast… we don’t know how long this opportunity for the general public to join will last. [>>CLICK HERE NOW TO SIGN UP]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] [] If you’re trading everyday, and tired of wasting hours looking for the perfect trade setup, while your account hemorrhages money, then KEEP READING… This could change EVERYTHING. Every morning for the last few months, a notorious market veteran has been quietly sending out a list of his favorite high-potential stock picks to a small, select group of successful traders… And [open enrollment is still available to the public.]( A rare opportunity for everyday traders just like you! Every day, before the market even opens, you could be receiving this legendary trader’s personal “hot sheet” of top stock picks for the day. Stocks that have the highest probabilities of moving 5% to 10% in just a couple of hours each trading day. Giving you, starting as soon as tomorrow, a shot at making $490 (or more) every single day the market is open. A potential $98,000 a year in trading profits… All by simply following the same trading watch list of this seasoned trading pro. But you have to move fast… we don’t know how long this opportunity for the general public to join will last. [>>CLICK HERE NOW TO SIGN UP]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Article Recap - [Eye of the Storm?](#i572731) - [Alleghany Stock Surges](#i572028) - [This could change EVERYTHING.](#156388) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Article Recap - [Eye of the Storm?](#i572731) - [Alleghany Stock Surges](#i572028) - [This could change EVERYTHING.](#156388) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: {EMAIL} [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States