An Article That Doesn't Mention Russia, Biden, the Fed, or Inflation

[] The markets are still full of expensive stocks, but investors are rotating to value thanks to news out of Russia, the Federal Reserve, and inflation reports. Let’s talk about Deep Value. [View in browser]( . The markets are still full of expensive stocks, but investors are rotating to value thanks to news out of Russia, the Federal Reserve, and inflation reports. Let’s talk about Deep Value. [View in browser]( . . [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [Havens Investment Letter] [] [] [] Did This California Tech Wiz Discover... The Perfect AAPL Trade? One reclusive tech genius in California used his powerful trade-testing software to perfect his system for trading AAPL. The results so far -- a 70% win rate and a 3-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio. [Click here to catch the recent reveal of the "Perfect" Apple Trade]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Did This California Tech Wiz Discover... The Perfect AAPL Trade? One reclusive tech genius in California used his powerful trade-testing software to perfect his system for trading AAPL. The results so far -- a 70% win rate and a 3-to-1 reward-to-risk ratio. [Click here to catch the recent reveal of the "Perfect" Apple Trade]( [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] An Article That Doesn't Mention Russia, Biden, the Fed, or Inflation [Garrett Pic]Dear Investor, I won't say those words. I WON'T SAY those words. If you're a bit exhausted by those four topics in the subject line, you're not alone. Imagine being on phone calls each morning where those subjects cover 58 of the 60 minutes… Or imagine being at a child's birthday party over the weekend and having five parents find out that I'm an economist. The first question they ask is, “What do you think about…” I WON'T SAY THOSE THREE WORDS. Telling someone that I work in the markets is an invitation to an inquisition that rivals only a Marine father talking to his daughter's prom date. Let's change the subject and focus on where opportunity lies in this market. Really Deep Value As I noted on Monday, ARK Funds' founder Cathie Wood attempted to rebrand her flagship fund ARK Innovation (ARKK) as a deep value fund. She asked that investors give her five years - HALF A DECADE - before her fund showed mind-boggling returns. She estimated that her fund will deliver a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 40%. While that figure is technically possible, the probability is low. If she accomplishes this, I argue that she is the world's greatest stock picker in the history of the world. Because with that level of prognostication, I also want to know who she thinks will win the World Series each of the next five years as well. And the Super Bowl. And the champion of the LPGA in 2026. Not only did Wood ask for five years, she also said that ARK Invest is a “deep value” portfolio. She’s defining this as the cost of the stock today compared to the expected value in five years. But that’s not really deep value. After all, “deep value” comprises the need to focus on stocks with extremely cheap valuations (ARKK stocks don’t really have this). Tobias Carlyle has written a great book called “Deep Value” that teaches investors how to approach cheap stocks and cheap valuation multiples. It doesn’t consist of buying stocks with price-to-sales ratios of 10 or higher like Wood. It consists of buying “a dollar” for 65 cents. And that brings me to one of the best ways to measure value. Deep Value is All Around Us I’ve talked to you before about buying stocks that trade under a price-to-tangible book value of 1. This came from conversations with the father-in-law who is one of the top community banking analysts in the world. He recommends banks that are trading under their liquidation value. Basically, the bank trades at 0.9 times a tangible book value of one. You’re buying something for 90 cents on the dollar. His strategy is to hold these stocks and wait for consolidation in the space. Given that consolidation in community banking has run about a rate of 3% to 5% over the last 30 years, you can say that this is a very good trend. You can also look across the energy, mining, and utility space and find companies trading under a book value of 1 and trading under low buyout multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Free Cash Flow). Now, I stress that it's important to focus on stocks that carry these low metrics, trade on US exchanges, and are ripe for consolidation. If these stocks have wide bid-ask spreads, then you want to use limit orders (not market orders) to purchase them. Don't pay any more than you need to in this market. Just set a limit order, wait, and if it fills - don't look at it for a few months. We'll break down a few “deep value” picks tomorrow. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets [] --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] An Article That Doesn't Mention Russia, Biden, the Fed, or Inflation [Garrett Pic]Dear Investor, I won't say those words. I WON'T SAY those words. If you're a bit exhausted by those four topics in the subject line, you're not alone. Imagine being on phone calls each morning where those subjects cover 58 of the 60 minutes… Or imagine being at a child's birthday party over the weekend and having five parents find out that I'm an economist. The first question they ask is, “What do you think about…” I WON'T SAY THOSE THREE WORDS. Telling someone that I work in the markets is an invitation to an inquisition that rivals only a Marine father talking to his daughter's prom date. Let's change the subject and focus on where opportunity lies in this market. Really Deep Value As I noted on Monday, ARK Funds' founder Cathie Wood attempted to rebrand her flagship fund ARK Innovation (ARKK) as a deep value fund. She asked that investors give her five years - HALF A DECADE - before her fund showed mind-boggling returns. She estimated that her fund will deliver a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 40%. While that figure is technically possible, the probability is low. If she accomplishes this, I argue that she is the world's greatest stock picker in the history of the world. Because with that level of prognostication, I also want to know who she thinks will win the World Series each of the next five years as well. And the Super Bowl. And the champion of the LPGA in 2026. Not only did Wood ask for five years, she also said that ARK Invest is a “deep value” portfolio. She’s defining this as the cost of the stock today compared to the expected value in five years. But that’s not really deep value. After all, “deep value” comprises the need to focus on stocks with extremely cheap valuations (ARKK stocks don’t really have this). Tobias Carlyle has written a great book called “Deep Value” that teaches investors how to approach cheap stocks and cheap valuation multiples. It doesn’t consist of buying stocks with price-to-sales ratios of 10 or higher like Wood. It consists of buying “a dollar” for 65 cents. And that brings me to one of the best ways to measure value. Deep Value is All Around Us I’ve talked to you before about buying stocks that trade under a price-to-tangible book value of 1. This came from conversations with the father-in-law who is one of the top community banking analysts in the world. He recommends banks that are trading under their liquidation value. Basically, the bank trades at 0.9 times a tangible book value of one. You’re buying something for 90 cents on the dollar. His strategy is to hold these stocks and wait for consolidation in the space. Given that consolidation in community banking has run about a rate of 3% to 5% over the last 30 years, you can say that this is a very good trend. You can also look across the energy, mining, and utility space and find companies trading under a book value of 1 and trading under low buyout multiples (EV/EBITDA, EV/Free Cash Flow). Now, I stress that it's important to focus on stocks that carry these low metrics, trade on US exchanges, and are ripe for consolidation. If these stocks have wide bid-ask spreads, then you want to use limit orders (not market orders) to purchase them. Don't pay any more than you need to in this market. Just set a limit order, wait, and if it fills - don't look at it for a few months. We'll break down a few “deep value” picks tomorrow. Enjoy your day, [Garrett signature] Garrett {NAME} Chief Analyst, American Markets --------------------------------------------------------------- [] A Chance To MAKE $490 EVERY DAY THE MARKET IS OPEN? 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Just like trading “side-by-side” with a real professional trader, you’ll get a chance to… “…make $490 (or more) every single day the market is open.” A potential $98,000 a year in trading profits just by simply following along and placing the exact same stocks as a real veteran trader. [>>CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP FOR THE LIST]( --------------------------------------------------------------- [] [] Article Recap - [An Article That Doesn't Mention Russia, Biden, the Fed, or Inflation](#i572731) - [[UPDATE] 20-Year Trading Legend Opens Personal Daily Stock “Sizzle List” To The General Public...](#156390) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] Article Recap - [An Article That Doesn't Mention Russia, Biden, the Fed, or Inflation](#i572731) - [[UPDATE] 20-Year Trading Legend Opens Personal Daily Stock “Sizzle List” To The General Public...](#156390) --------------------------------------------------------------- [] © 2022 Godesburg Financial Publishing, Inc. 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Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. 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DISCLAIMER: COMMUNICATIONS FROM GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING (GFP) ARE FOR EDUCATIONAL AND INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY – NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE: GFP and all the services it offers are for educational and informational purposes only and should NOT be understood to be securities-related offers or solicitations. None of GFP’s communications should be considered or used as personalized investment advice. GFP recommends that you speak with a licensed professional before making any investment decision. RESULTS PRESENTED ARE NOT NECCESSARILY TYPICAL OR VERIFIED: GFP communications may include information regarding the historical trading performance of gurus in their services (all verified by a third party), as well as testimonials of non-employees depicting profitable investments and trades that are believed to be true based on the representations of the persons providing the testimonial of their own free will. Please be aware that the claims regarding investing or trading results of non-employees are not tracked by GFP nor can they be verified. As always, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Therefore, results presented in this email should NOT be considered TYPICAL. Actual results can and will vary based on everything from experience, ability, risk mitigation practices, and market volatility... to the amount of money exposed in the investment or trade. Investing and trading are speculative and carry serious risk. You may lose some, all - or possibly more - than your original investment or trade. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVISOR OR REGISTERED BROKER: GFP, including its owners and employees, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers, brokers, or any sort of registered investment advisors with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, any state securities regulatory authorities, or any self-regulatory organizations. GODESBURG FINANCIAL PUBLISHING EMPLOYEES MAY HOLD SECURITIES DISCUSSED: If a writer holds any securities in a communication, it will be disclosed along with the information on the potential investment or trade. HIR, its owners or employees, have not been - or ever will be - paid by the issuer of a security mentioned in our services or communications. GFP, its owners and employees are paid entirely or in part from commissions based on sales of their services to subscribers. For more information, please visit [our disclaimer page here.]( Sent to: [{EMAIL}](mailto:) [Unsubscribe]( Godesburg Financial Publishing Inc., 251 Little Falls Drive, Wilmington, DE 19808, United States