One financial market has been hit even harder by the Omicron variant than stocks: commodities. How will the new variant affect gold prices and oil prices going forward?
â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â Â Â South Africa Discovers Omicron Variant: Gold Rises, Oil Falls Dear Reader, Omicron - a new COVID-19 variant is making the rounds, and already analysts are talking about a sell-off. The news about new variants of the coronavirus discovered in South Africa are indeed worrying, especially given that we donât quite know its full range of effects yet - and that several new mutations may be propagating at once. Uncertainty is Poison for the Stock Markets In principle, the stock markets can deal with bad news if they know exactly how bad it is. But uncertainty is poison for the stock markets. Accordingly, the Dow and DAX corrected significantly on Friday. But there have been even larger movements on the non-equity markets... Oil: Steepest Decline Since April 2020 One of the most discounted things for sale on Black Friday was oil; it lost more than $10 intraday. Brent crude fell as low as $72. At the beginning of November, the price was still almost $86. Itâs the steepest decline since April 2020. Â Â Oil Oversupply Again Soon? The trigger for the sharp decline is concern that the spread of the new virus variant could affect oil demand more severely, and that we might even see oversupply again next year. However, itâs worth remembering that trading volume was very thin last week due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., which may have temporarily exaggerated oilâs slide. Gold in Demand Again as a Safe Haven In contrast to oil, gold has made a new start and is now on the verge of cracking the technically-important $1800 level. Although interest rate hikes are expected soon in the U.S., there are fears that an overly-rapid rate hike could stall the economic recovery again because of the new virus variant. Â Â Industrial Metals Come Under Pressure However, the high level of risk aversion among market participants is bringing gold back into focus as a safe haven. In contrast, industrial metals such as silver are coming under pressure, in part due to a spike in margin calls during the recent selloff. Have a great weekend, Dr. Gregor Bauer
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