History Repeats Itself: This Telecosm Giant Holds the Keys to the Next Phase of Broadband Tech
[Gilder's Daily Prophecy]
April 11, 2020
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History Repeats Itself: This Telecosm Giant Holds the Keys to the Next Phase of Broadband Tech
[George Gilder]Dear Daily Prophecy Reader,
Below youâll find an excerpt from the March issue of The George Gilder Report. If youâre already a subscriber Iâm sure youâve seen this monthâs portfolio pick. But if youâre not, [click here]( to find out what you can do to make sure you donât miss out on this opportunityâ¦
In the decades that I have spent discerning the vectors that guide technological progress, I have undertaken an arduous education in many sectors. Including mathematics, physics, engineering, the properties of the electromagnetic spectrum, information theory, and even the genetic code as the supreme expression of that theory.
The most important thing anyone ever taught me, however, the key to every correct call Iâve ever made in technology, I learned one day in Newark Airport during a discursive chat with my great friend and mentor Carver Mead of CalTech legend.
We were not talking not about physics or electromagnetism, or the quantum properties of micro-circuits, or the dead-end of wave particle duality, or even making horribly ingenious puns, all Carver conversational favorites. We were talking about entrepreneurship.
Carver argued that the secret to successful entrepreneurship was waste. Waste the cheapest and most abundant relevant resource so as to conserve or create what is scarce. Academia portrays economics as the study of scarcity. Carver summed up for me a truth I had been grasping at for years: Economics consists in identifying the abundances that, wasted prodigiously, overwhelm scarcity.
I had heard echoes of this before. One of my favorite quotes from another hero, Peter Drucker, was âdonât solve problems, pursue opportunities.â A problem is a scarcity, whether of talent, time, money, or information. It is in the abundances we find opportunity.
With Carverâs axiom, I found myself able to perceive the paradigms that would dominate both the Microcosm of computing machines, as well as Telecosm of infinite bandwidth.
No more banks. No more accountants. No more Wall Street?
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This new type of Internet could change everything in the coming years⦠But your chance to profit from it could start in the coming days!
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In the Microcosm, the first great divide was between wires and switches. For the telephone network â effectively a global computer â wires had long been cheap and abundant. Switches including human operators, had been scarce and expensive.
The transistor â essentially a switch â reversed this. Now, switches were vastly cheaper than wires. This was the real implication of Mooreâs Law. The way to multiply computer power would be to multiply switches on a chip, rather than linking many devices by wires that were hot and hard to connect.
Electric power to drive the switches did not appear scarce. This tempted early supercomputer innovators to use fast, high-powered switches to accelerate computation. But power makes heat and noise, radically reducing the number of logic switches that can fit on a chip. âLow and slowâ silicon circuits triumphed because the crucial factor in computation was the number of switches on a chip.
In the Telecosm, the dominance of switches over wires was in part reversed. Carrying many orders of magnitude more data than a traditional telephone trunk line, at a fraction of the power, fiber optic cables produced an abundance of bandwidth. The new goal was to stay âall opticalâ as long as possible, stretching out the distance between electronic regenerators or switches.
This partial reversal was the ultimate cause of the âcloud.â With fiber optic bandwidth beating Mooreâs Law, growing even faster and cheaper than processing, it made some sense to centralize the storage and processing of data and access it as needed over the lightspeed network.
Though all these scarcity/abundance calculations seem obvious now, there was some resistance along the way from very smart people and very smart companies. In the end, though, these were mere mud fights.
Wireless from the very beginning has been a knife fight.
Our pick of the month became the dominant firm in global wireless technology by winning the knife fights of the 1990s and 2000s.
Marchâs portfolio pick is about to win again â in the new quarrel over what is called â5G.â
If youâre not already a subscriber, [click here to see how you can get more details on the recommendation.](
Regards,
[George Gilder]
George Gilder
Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy
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