Time-Price Theory Trumps Economists Beliefs

Ten things they believe that are disproven… ------ Editor’s Note ------ New FREE Benefit to Your Subscription Starting Monday! We wanted to send out a quick note regarding something new that’s coming your way next week. It’s a daily e-letter called Money & Crisis. Written by bestselling author Graham Summers, this e-letter focuses on revealing the truth behind global money movements — and the impact on everyday investors. You’re going to start receiving this free e-letter starting on Monday. To give you a sneak peek, we attached a recent edition of Money & Crisis below today’s issue of Gilder's Daily Prophecy. If you’ve already opted out you’re all set, but you can still enjoy Graham’s analysis today. Scroll down to take a look! [Gilder's Daily Prophecy] November 8, 2019 [ARCHIVES]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Social Security Stinks! [James Altucher](Nobody can survive on Social Security crumbs alone… So I have a time-sensitive request. I want you to [watch this clip.]( I recently rented out an abandoned warehouse in NYC… To test out my new retirement “catch up” plan… I call it the [“2-Minute Retirement Rescue”.]( You won’t believe what happened… I admit, things got a little bit out of control. But trust me, you need to see this video now if you want to learn how to fatten up your retirement nest egg FAST! [Click on this link to see the video.]( Time-Price Theory Trumps Economists Beliefs [George Gilder]Dear Daily Prophecy Reader, My readers may be familiar with the concept of time-prices by now. But perhaps you do not recognize how radically this new paradigm challenges the prevailing views of economists. Overthrown is what John Kenneth Galbraith used to call the conventional wisdom (though he faithfully upheld the conventional views of the academic left). Time-prices gauge the value of goods and services by the amount of time a typical worker has to spend to earn the money to buy them. Measured in hours and minutes, and roughly calculated as GDP over hours worked, time-prices reflect the reality of money as time. Money translates the universal economic scarcity of time into a fungible form that can be used in commercial transactions. Time-prices are the true prices. In my “Information Theory of Economics” — wealth is knowledge, growth is learning, and money is time. So to convey the import of the time-price paradigm, I provide a list of “Ten Things Nearly All Economists Believe — and The Economist Magazine Asserts — that are Disproven by Gale Pooley and Marian Tupy’s Time-Prices.” Let’s begin… - It is impossible to measure accurately the true level of prices over time and across national borders without an array of subjective and often inconsistent tools such as deflators and consumer price indices (CPI). Pooley and Tupy demonstrate that dividing Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by the widely collected data of hours of paid labor yields a simple definitive number that gauges the amount of GDP per hour and minutes of work. This figure captures in one number both the rise in incomes and the drop in costs resulting from innovation, which is the source of all per-capita economic growth. - Consumer price indices, producer price indices, GDP deflators, purchasing power parity estimates, and floating currency values can measure the true impact of inflation or deflation in national or world economies. Pooley and Tupy’s time-prices show that all these estimates have drastically understated the rate of economic growth, innovation, and increasing abundance in the world economy over the last forty years. - The world is currently undergoing “secular stagnation,” marked by a slowdown of technological innovation. Pooley and Tupy’s time-prices reveal no slowdown at all in the rates of technological innovation and true economic growth. - In what the Economist calls “The World Economy’s Strange New Rules,” interest rates are now widely fixed at zero or negative in real terms. Measured by time-prices, innovation has been increasing real incomes at a rate of 3.6% per year since 1980. Real interest rates are nominal interest rates plus expected inflation or deflation (minus). Thus, on bonds with zero nominal rates, today’s true interest rates, corrected for expected innovation (benign deflation), are an entirely normal 3.6%. - The rise of human populations has inflicted stress on the environment marked by rising commodity prices. Since 1980, when Pooley and Tupy begin their time-price series, world population has risen by 71.2%, from roughly 4.5 billion to 7.6 billion, while time-prices of the 55 leading commodities have dropped by 72.3%. During those four decades, GDP per capita per hour has risen by 404.1%. - Population growth has inflicted particular damage on seas and fisheries. Measured by the hours and minutes to buy them, salmon, shrimp, and fishmeal have dropped in price by 81%, 76%, and 40% respectively, as aquaculture has flourished. - The 22% increase in the level of CO2 in the atmosphere since 1980 — from .03% to .04% — has resulted in “extreme weather” that has retarded agricultural productivity around the world. Since 1980, economic abundance, measured by the time-prices of the leading 55 commodities, more than half of the agricultural products, has increased 518%. - Middle-class incomes in the US have suffered as a result of the rise of Chinese manufacturing. Measured by time-prices, the cost of a basket of leading commodities (the Farm Bureau’s Thanksgiving Dinner index) for a US blue-collar worker has declined from 32 minutes in 1986 to under nine minutes in 2019. Time-prices show widespread improvements in the standard of living of middle-class Americans since the rise of China. - The Chinese government has been persistently exaggerating the growth rates of China’s economy. Time-prices show that the Chinese economy has been growing at a world record-breaking rate of 11.1% per year since 1980, far above the estimates of the Chinese government. - The rise in the costs of healthcare, education, housing, and other government-dominated industries has overwhelmed the drop in prices of technological goods and services. National time-price trends are measured by the growth in GDP over the growth in hours worked. GDP includes the impact of wasteful government spending and regulations. In my information theory, economic growth is learning. Perhaps the best-documented phenomenon in business is the learning curve: The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates that costs decline by 20-30% with every doubling of total units sold. With its spinout, Bain and Company, the BCG has calculated learning curves in every industry, from poultry eggs and trucking miles to transistors on chips and lines of software code. With the spread of computer technology around the globe, through every industry and every good and service, learning curves are compounding everywhere. The result is a global boom in real productivity and growth measured by the only universal measuring stick, time and time-prices. Time-Price Meets Zero-to-One Peter Thiel is about to give a Wriston Lecture to the Manhattan Institute on the subject, “The End of the Computer Age.” Does this mean that our current golden age is coming to a close? Pooley reconciled the apparent conflict between his views and Thiel’s by commenting on a similar Thiel address to my COSM conference last month. Thiel is referring to great breakthroughs registered in his concept of Zero-to-Oneinnovations in his book by that name. In his book, Thiel also explains what he calls “one-to-n” growth, the spread of existing technologies around the globe. The plummeting time-prices wrought by the computer age continue to revolutionize the third world and overcome poverty in the first world. As Pooley shows, measured by time-prices, the computer age since 1980 has drastically increased equality. According to the World Bank, from 1960 to 2018 abundance as measured in time-prices for rice increased by 7.32 and 8.06 for wheat. What does this mean for inequality? Let’s consider Raj in India and Ray in Indiana. In 1960 Raj in India spent seven hours a day earning the money to buy rice for his meals. By 2018, the time-price of rice had fallen 86.2%. Now Raj’s grandson only spends 58 minutes working to buy his rice. Raj’s grandson has six hours and two minutes now to do something else. In 1960 Ray in Indiana only spent one hour a day earning the money to buy wheat for his meals. Now he spends eight minutes. Ray’s grandson has 52 minutes now to do something else. Has inequality increased? From 1960 to 2018 Ray’s family gained 52 minutes but Raj’s family gained 362 minutes. The Raj family has gained 6.9 times more time than Ray’s family.  Time inequality has been reduced dramatically. When basic things get more abundant, it’s the poor who benefit the most. This is not captured in Gini coefficients [the usual statistical measure of inequality]. Comparing the impact of changes in time-prices over time to different groups may be much more informative. “Another Thing that Economists Think They Know” is disproven by the theory of money as time. Regards, [George Gilder] George Gilder Editor, Gilder's Daily Prophecy Gilder: “This Reboot Could Make You Rich” [Reboot](A [wealth revolution]( is coming. And it could make you very… very… rich. That’s the latest forecast from the man they call “America’s #1 futurist”… “Wall Street’s most influential technology trader”… and “a true American genius.” How so? “We’re headed for a potential $16.8 trillion reboot,” he says. “Nobody will remain untouched. And a few early investors could walk away with millions.” [Click this link to find out more…]( Introducing Money & Crisis [Editor’s Note:] Plain and simple, the markets are roaring higher again. There are truly massive, life-changing opportunities in the markets today. Your guide to profits from the markets is famed Market Strategist Graham Summers. He’s spent the last 15 years building a reputation as one of the most sought after and highly respected investment strategists on the planet. In the last three months alone, he showed readers how to profit from: A) Gold's breakout to new highs B) The U.S.-China trade war C) The stock market bubbling up to new all-time highs. Graham’s also written a bestselling book outlining the exact monetary policies the Fed is currently using to create the latest bubble... which Graham predicted years ago. At Money & Crisis, Graham will prepare you and your wealth for success in the markets. He’ll expose the policies the government and global central banks will be unveiling going forward and how to profit from them. This daily publication covers everything from geopolitics to international trade to economics, and most importantly, how to make money from what’s coming down the pike. As a free benefit to your Gilder’s Daily Prophecy subscription, you are all set to begin receiving Money & Crisis next week. You don’t need to do a thing to begin receiving this free benefit. However, if you’d rather not receive Graham’s money-making ideas, [click here to be removed from the list.Â]( Ultimately, his research and recommendations will empower you to become a more informed investor. And don’t just take my word for it. I’ve asked Graham to include a short excerpt about one of the many topics he covers in the pages of Money & Crisis. Scroll down to read what he sent me. It will give you an idea of what you can expect every weekday morning. How QE Has Opened the Door to the Biggest Profits in Years By Graham Summers [Graham Summers]The Fed has officially launched QE 4. Fed officials are adamant not to refer to it as QE in public, but it’s QE nonetheless. QE 4 is a monetary program through which the Fed will print $60 billion in new money which it will then use to buy U.S. debt (Treasuries) from the big banks. This comes on top of the Fed offering $75 billion in liquidity via overnight credit windows… as well as $35 billion twice a week through another credit facility. Put simply, the Fed is now providing between $130 billion and $200 billion-plus in liquidity to the financial system every month. This is the NUCLEAR-level QE program I predicted was coming in my bestselling book [The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy]( back in 2017. The reason the Fed is doing this, in its simplest rendering, is to weaken the U.S. dollar. “Wait a minute,” you might be thinking, “the U.S. dollar is nowhere near as high as it’s been in the past. Why does the Fed need to weaken it?” Let me explain… How to Accurately Read the U.S. Dollar [US dollars ] If we’re talking about the U.S. dollar index, shown below, then it is true that the U.S. dollar is nowhere near as high as it’s been in the past. However, the U.S. dollar index doesn’t accurately represent the impact the U.S. dollar has on trade. For that, we need to consider the “trade-weighted U.S. dollar index.” The trade-weighted U.S. dollar index weighs the value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the U.S.’s major trade partners. So if Japan accounts for 40% of total trade with the U.S., the Japanese yen will account for 40% of the basket of currencies used to value the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index. Using the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index gives a much more accurate pricing of the U.S. dollar. And the trade-weighted U.S. dollar index shows the U.S. dollar trading at its highest value in over 20 years. [Trade Weighted] This is why the Fed is moving to weaken the U.S. dollar. Relative to the U.S.’s major trade partners, the U.S. currency is way too strong. And this has opened the door to truly MASSIVE profits as the Fed goes NUCLEAR with its money printing… Best Regards, [Graham Summers] Editor, Graham Summers P.S. Each day, Money & Crisis covers everything from geopolitics to international trade to economics, and most importantly, how to make money from what’s coming down the pike.  They’ve given our readers a 100% free subscription to their daily publication. And you don’t need to do anything to get it. You’re already signed up! Now, if you’d rather not get this free benefit, no worries! Just [click here to remove yourself from the list.Â]( A World Without Deadly Cancer? [Cell]( Shame on Big Pharma — A radical NEW treatment protocol is here… without the use of toxic drugs. (And you could start profiting from it today.) Because one small Jersey biotech applying this new protocol made a spectacular discovery that could lead to the most radical disruption of the deadliest forms of Cancer, and its stock is set to fly straight off the charts. There's no telling how soon the news could hit the mainstream news… before it too late to get in on the biggest gains. [Click here now to see what Big Pharma missed… and how you can profit now before December…]( [Gilder Press] To end your Gilder's Daily Prophecy e-mail subscription and associated external offers sent from Gilder's Daily Prophecy, [click here to unsubscribe](. If you are having trouble receiving your Gilder's Daily Prophecy subscription, you can ensure its arrival in your mailbox by [whitelisting Gilder's Daily Prophecy.]( Gilder's Daily Prophecy is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. Please read [our Privacy Statement.]( Gilder Press, a division of Laissez Faire Books, LLC. 808 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202. Nothing in this e-mail should be considered personalized financial advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized financial advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after online publication or 72 hours after the mailing of a printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended in this letter should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company. © 2019 Gilder Press, a division of Laissez Faire Books, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Gilder Press, a division of Laissez Faire Books, LLC.