Is China’s growth “miraculous”?

Grappling with the hidden dangers of Beijing’s official numbers MARCH 12, 2024  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     Chinese Premier Li Qiang (left) attends the closing session of the 14th National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 11. Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images Last Tuesday, there was big news from Beijing: At the annual legislative meeting known as the two sessions, the government announced the GDP target for 2024. But while hopes were high for a post-pandemic recovery, that has not eventuated, and this year’s target of 5 percent remains unchanged from last year. “Even if the country hits that number,” writes the Takshashila Institution’s Amit Kumar, “its economic problems run deep.” In “[The Hidden Dangers in China’s GDP Numbers](,” Kumar outlines the economy’s challenges: a deflating property bubble; an increased securitization of national development; and lackluster domestic consumption. Kumar’s conclusion? “The much-dreaded fear of the ‘middle-income trap’ is real for China.” Of course, this analysis is predicated on accurate numbers from the government. “Any serious book on China’s growth should grapple with the validity of its official GDP data,” argues MIT’s Yasheng Huang in a [review of Keyu Jin’s much-hyped]( New China Playbook. Jin, writes Huang, gets many things right—in particular, her rebuttal of the notion that China is a “mere technological copycat.” But her overall tone is “mistakenly celebratory,” and this is “deeply disconnected with China’s current reality of a reeling economy, a tanking stock market, and massive capital flight out of the country.” Huang’s review is titled “[Chinese Exceptionalism Just Won’t Die](”—and neither, it seems, will the debate around the robustness (or not) of the Chinese economy. 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