When—and how—will Russia’s war in Ukraine end?

Plus, China's Middle East strategy and reports from Munich Security Conference. [Final hours: Get your first month for just $5.]( FEBRUARY 21, 2024  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     A member of a Ukrainian special police unit falls after firing a D-30 howitzer toward Russian positions near Kreminna, Ukraine, on July 7, 2023. Libkos/AP Two years into Russia’s war in Ukraine, FP [surveyed experts]( on when and how it will end. While there are clearly many variables, a common thread running through their answers was that the war has lasted far longer than anyone might have expected and that the parties involved are weary. As FP columnist C. Raja Mohan puts it, “2024 will test the capacity of all sides to preserve internal coherence amid the war’s rapidly rising costs.” Economic historian Adam Tooze, in a [conversation]( on his podcast Ones and Tooze available as a transcript for FP Insiders, says that “both on the European and on the American side, the continuing ongoing funding of Ukraine over a period of years going forward is increasingly difficult to conceive of in political terms.” Meanwhile, the human costs of the war continue to mount. Mauripol is today one of the most severely damaged cities in eastern Ukraine; the war there has given rise to what could be described as a [street art battle](, curator Joes Segal writes. Segal tells the story of two competing murals in Mariupol to demonstrate that “the rewriting of history can be pursued from different perspectives at the same time—top-down and bottom-up.” FP, likewise, will continue to bring you perspectives on this war that illuminate government strategies and their effects on people. Stay tuned for more rolling coverage this week on the anniversary no one thought would come to pass.—The Editors   New and Noteworthy - [Remembering Alexei Navalny:]( On Feb. 16, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny died in a penal colony in western Siberia. “For many, Navalny presented the most credible alternative to Putin, with his hopes of turning Russia into a ‘normal country,’” FP’s Amy Mackinnon [writes](. “It was a vision that the Kremlin worked to ensure could never become a reality by steadily extinguishing dissent—and, it seems, eventually Navalny himself.” - [China’s Middle East Strategy:]( Despite rising violence in the Middle East and months of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, “there has been no sign of Chinese mediation and little sign of actual Chinese diplomacy,” Jon B. Alterman [argues](. Yet exploring the history of China’s Middle East strategy may reveal that the inaction is strategic—and notably, designed to antagonize the United States. - [Eyes on the West:]( Mustafa Akyol [argues]( that seeming indifference to Palestinian suffering by Western leaders is alienating moderates across the Islamic world. Akyol says the West’s approach comes off “as a historic denial of the liberal values that Western governments have championed since the end of World War II: universal human rights and the inherent dignity of all human life.”   [Presidents Day Flash Sale]( Get the inside scoop on all things geopolitics and [one month of access for just $5](. Stay informed about politics and ideas from around the world with Foreign Policy ’s in-depth analysis and news reports. Subscribers now get more than ever—including the mobile app, FP Live interviews, audio products, events, the print magazine, and more. [GET OFFER](   FP Live [Anders Fogh Rasmussen on Two Years of Russia’s War in Ukraine]( Feb. 22 | 9 a.m EST Feb. 24 marks two years since Russia invaded Ukraine. Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen argues that Western leaders need to continue to supply Ukraine with weapons—and quickly, before the war results in further instability. He’ll join FP Live ahead of the war’s second anniversary to discuss the current state of the conflict, lessons learned, and what the future might hold for Ukraine. [Register now](. [FP at the Munich Security Conference: Decoding Disinformation]( On Demand As deepfake technology becomes more common, are we already in a post-truth world? FP’s Ravi Agrawal convened leaders—including Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Ressa, the European Commission’s Vera Jourova, Google’s Kent Walker, and Phumzile van Damme, a former member of parliament in South Africa—to examine how to tackle disinformation. [Watch]( the conversation now. [Gita Gopinath on the Global Economy]( On DemandIs the global economy in better shape than we expected in 2024? And if so, how do we keep it that way? The latest projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show growth holding up amid slowing inflation—but geopolitics could easily play spoiler. [Watch]( the conversation between IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath and FP’s Ravi Agrawal, or [read]( the Q&A or a [new essay]( by Gopinath on the prospect of a new economic cold war.   Exercise Your Mind Who won Indonesia’s presidential election last Wednesday? - Independent Anies Baswedan - Nationalist Ganjar Pranowo - Right-wing populist Prabowo Subianto - Incumbent President Joko Widodo You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.   Exclusive from the Munich Security Conference Catch up on special editions of [Situation Report](—Foreign Policy’s national security newsletter—as Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer provided behind-the-scenes analyses from the 2024 Munich Security Conference. [Sign up]( to receive a weekly digest of national security, defense, and cybersecurity news. [Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen attends a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich on Feb. 17. ]( [Specter of Another War in Europe Hangs Over Munich]( Fears of a Russian attack on NATO spark existential questions at the Munich Security Conference. [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris smile at the end of a press conference at the Munich Security Conference in Munich on Feb. 17. ]( [NATO’s Silver Lining Playbook]( On Ukraine, Western officials say things are bad but they could be a lot worse. [Yulia Navalnaya, wife of late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, attends the Munich Security Conference on the day it was announced that Navalny is dead, in Munich, Germany, on Feb. 16. ]( [Navalny’s Death Shocks World Leaders in Munich]( U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris declared “Russia is responsible” for the opposition leader’s demise. [Then-U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in London on Dec. 3, 2019.]( [Anxious World Leaders Descend on Munich]( Doubts on Ukraine and growing alarm about a second Trump term are likely to dominate the agenda. [Specter of Another War in Europe Hangs Over Munich](Fears of a Russian attack on NATO spark existential questions at the Munich Security Conference. [NATO’s Silver Lining Playbook](On Ukraine, Western officials say things are bad but they could be a lot worse. [Navalny’s Death Shocks World Leaders in Munich](U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris declared “Russia is responsible” for the opposition leader’s demise. [Anxious World Leaders Descend on Munich](Doubts on Ukraine and growing alarm about a second Trump term are likely to dominate the agenda.   From Around FP - From FPA: [FP Analytics](, Foreign Policy ’s independent research and advisory division, takes in-depth, data-informed looks at major global moments. Check out a [new report](, produced with support from the Qatari Ministry of Communications and Information Technology, on establishing guardrails to minimize the risks of generative artificial intelligence. To learn more about ensuring space sustainability for all, check out [this report]( on outer space security and [this report]( on strengthening partnerships to mitigate risks in the cosmos. - Defending Democracy: Join Foreign Policy , in partnership with the National Democratic Institute, for a free virtual event on Feb. 29. Learn how international and citizen election observers, as well as political leaders themselves and election commissions, are promoting electoral integrity in 2024 through new technologies, independent verification tools, and more. [Register now]( to attend. - Assessing Gender Equality: Join host Reena Ninan and reporters across Africa in [The Hidden Economics of Remarkable Women](, an award-winning podcast from FP made possible in part through funding by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as they assess promises made about gender equality—and whether leaders are truly delivering on them. Look out for new episodes every Tuesday on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you enjoy podcasts. Answer: C. Right-wing populist Prabowo Subianto. Prabowo has connections to the country’s old dictatorship. That has some observers concerned that Indonesia’s already strained democracy might take further steps back, Joseph Rachman [writes]( from Jakarta. [Presidents Day Flash Sale]( //link.foreignpolicy.com/click/34416961.119651/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmUvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PXRvcF91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcC98e8bd61//link.foreignpolicy.com/click/34416961.119651/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmUvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PWJvdHRvbV91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcDe94c5ea1//link.foreignpolicy.com/click/34416961.119651/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmUvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PWJvdHRvbV91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcEe94c5ea1//link.foreignpolicy.com/click/34416961.119651/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmUvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PWVuZF91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcG7c40c274[Get the inside scoop on all things geopolitics. For 72 hours only, get one month of access to Foreign Policy for just $5. Act quickly—this sale will be over in a flash.]( [SUBSCRIBE FOR $5](   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( You’re receiving this email at {EMAIL} because you signed up for FP's This Week newsletter. [MANAGE YOUR EMAIL PREFERENCES]( | [VIEW OUR PRIVACY POLICY]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Interested in partnering with FP on events, podcasts, or research? [Explore FP Solutions](. [Foreign Policy]( is a division of Graham Holdings Company. All contents © 2023 Graham Digital Holding Company LLC. All rights reserved. Foreign Policy, 655 15th St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC, 20005.