How the Gaza War Could Shape World Politics in 2024

Plus: Attacks on international trade and an assessment of 10 global risks. JANUARY 9, 2024  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     A demonstrator waves the Palestinian flag as he stands on the Neptune Fountain during a protest in support of Palestinians in Berlin on Nov. 4, 2023. Odd Andersen/AFP via Getty Images After a brief hiatus, FP This Week is returning. We’re glad to have you back for the new year and hope you enjoyed the season, wherever you are. Among many 2024 resolutions, Foreign Policy will strive to continue providing diverse perspectives on the world’s biggest moments—and there is already much to catch up on. For one, the ongoing Gaza war has escalated tensions in the Middle East. The scale of the conflict—with ripple effects intensifying in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and the [Red Sea](—is a sobering call to action for global actors. Simultaneously, the war has ignited diplomatic and societal conversations that “could have real electoral consequences,” as FP’s Amy Mackinnon [writes](. In a year where half of the world’s population will head to the polls, the conflict will continue to [shape world politics in 2024](. This year’s elections are complicated by additional factors, with [AI-enabled misinformation]( and the possibility of another [Trump-Biden showdown]( just two of many on the list. Our newest print issue, “[The Year the World Votes](,” is a peek at what’s at stake for the dozens of countries that will vote this year (with democracy at a tipping point in many of them). For a limited time, you can unlock access to the entire magazine, ad-free access to all articles on the site, and other exclusive interviews while [saving $100](. There are less than 10 hours to get this limited-time offer and start your new year with FP. Act fast and [join today]( for unparalleled understanding of the latest geopolitical news.—The editors   New and Noteworthy - Top 10 Global Risks: Drawing on their forecasting experience at the National Intelligence Council, Robert A. Manning and Mathew Burrows outline [how crises might unfold in 2024]( in the seventh edition of their yearly forecast. What is to come of development in Africa, the global gap on climate change, or generative AI regulations, among other risks? Learn more in [this lookahead]( for Foreign Policy. - Pathway to Victory: To many Western onlookers, Ukraine continues to lose the ground war against Russia. While Kyiv has made successful advances in the Black Sea and airspace around the territory, many—including the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia—question if those strides are enough. What changes in military strategy and capacity are required to [enable a victory for Ukraine](? - Protecting Global Trade: “The one thing the United States does that is indispensable—at least for now—is helping to secure global sea lanes against threats,” FP’s Emma Ashford writes in the latest “[It’s Debatable](” column with Matt Kroenig. Yet the White House has been largely “hands-off” on recent [Iran-backed Houthi attacks]( in the Red Sea, despite their implications for international trade. [Read on]( for Ashford and Kroenig’s analysis of protecting the global trade order and Washington’s response.   FP Live 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024Jan. 12 | 11 a.m. ETWith bloodshed and human suffering ravaging so many around the globe, the world entered 2024 on edge. Which conflicts don’t get enough attention from Western media? Which ones are simmering unbeknownst to most of us? Comfort Ero, the president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, will join FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a look at the world’s biggest flash points this year. [Register now](. What Taiwan’s Elections Mean for the U.S.—and the WorldJan. 22 | 10 a.m. ETAlong with Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher, Democratic Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi heads the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, created to deal with one of the United States’ foremost foreign-policy challenges: competition with China. Following the Taiwanese presidential election on Jan. 13, Krishnamoorthi will join FP to discuss the results and their implications for the United States. [Register now](. Ian Bremmer on the Top Risks for 2024Jan. 29 | 10 a.m. ETEvery year, the geopolitical risk consultancy Eurasia Group releases an [annual forecast]( of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the next 12 months. According to the group’s founder Ian Bremmer, 2024 is a year of grave concern—“the Voldemort of years … the year that must not be named.” Bremmer will join FP’s Ravi Agrawal to explore how the world can prepare for these challenges. [Register now](.   Exercise Your Mind Which international organization met with Argentine President Javier Milei on Thursday to discuss restarting a frozen bailout program? - World Bank - Inter-American Development Bank - Development Bank of Latin America - International Monetary Fund You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.   Final hours: $100 off all-access. [Subscribe to FP](.   Most Popular on FP [A man stands with a water bottle in the sun during a heat wave in Algiers, Algeria, on July 18, 2023.]( [The Death of the 1.5 Degree Climate Target]( The current path of climate policy is at a dead end—a welcome opportunity to rethink. By Jun Arima, Vijaya Ramachandran [An Israeli soldier exits a tunnel near the border with Israel in northern Gaza on Dec 15, 2023.]( [Is Israel Winning the War on the Tunnels in Gaza?]( Destroying Hamas’s underground network has been slow and cumbersome. By Daphné Richemond-Barak [The cover of Benedict Arnold's Imagined Communities.]( [The Greatest Book on Nationalism Keeps Being Misread]( “Imagined Communities” is far weirder than you remember. By David Polansky [Members of the Mandalay People's Defense Forces head to the frontline amid clashes with the Myanmar military in northern Shan State on Dec. 10, 2023.]( [8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2024]( These are the international disputes that are currently flying under the radar but could emerge as major flash points in the coming year. By FP Contributors [The Death of the 1.5 Degree Climate Target]( The current path of climate policy is at a dead end—a welcome opportunity to rethink. By Jun Arima, Vijaya Ramachandran [Is Israel Winning the War on the Tunnels in Gaza?](Destroying Hamas’s underground network has been slow and cumbersome. By Daphné Richemond-Barak [The Greatest Book on Nationalism Keeps Being Misread](“Imagined Communities” is far weirder than you remember. By David Polansky [8 Simmering Threats You Shouldn’t Ignore in 2024](These are the international disputes that are currently flying under the radar but could emerge as major flash points in the coming year. By FP Contributors   From Around FP - Dialogue at Davos: As world leaders convene in Davos for the annual World Economic Forum, Foreign Policy will host private roundtables to convene high-level officials and industry experts to discuss some of the most pressing challenges and opportunities facing our world today. [Learn more]( about the upcoming dialogues and their range of topics, including the future of cancer care and sustainability strategies for water security. - New from FPA: [FP Analytics](, Foreign Policy’s independent research and advisory division, takes in-depth, data-informed looks at major global moments. Check out a new report on the [role of diagnostics in addressing global health security](, in which FP brought together experts to build on the United Nations General Assembly’s high-level meetings on health. Or explore [key opportunities to maintain the momentum from COP28]( in a new issue brief produced with support from the COP28 Presidency. FPA can work with your team to produce in-depth proprietary research—[contact us]( to learn more. - Season 5 of HERO: The Hidden Economics of Remarkable Women (HERO), an award-winning Foreign Policy podcast made possible in part through funding by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, has just returned. In the [newest season](, join host Reena Ninan and reporters across Africa to assess the promises made about gender equality and whether leaders are truly delivering on them. Listen now on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you enjoy podcasts. Answer: D. International Monetary Fund. Milei, who campaigned on numerous radical economic reforms, has already softened some of his positions, Max Klaver [wrote]( last month. The latest IMF negotiations could lead to the disbursement of more than $3 billion to Buenos Aires. [Final hours to save]( //link.foreignpolicy.com/click/33934139.127892/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmUvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PXRvcF91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcH3e19d358//link.foreignpolicy.com/click/33934139.127892/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmUvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PWJvdHRvbV91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcI399e168a//link.foreignpolicy.com/click/33934139.127892/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmUvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PWJvdHRvbV91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcJ399e168a//link.foreignpolicy.com/click/33934139.127892/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9zdWJzY3JpYmUvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PWVuZF91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcL1b89996e//link.foreignpolicy.com/click/33934139.127892/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9naWZ0LXN1YnNjcmlwdGlvbnMvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PWVuZF91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcB2f065171//link.foreignpolicy.com/click/33934139.127892/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9naWZ0LXN1YnNjcmlwdGlvbnMvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PWVuZF91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcC2f065171//link.foreignpolicy.com/click/33934139.127892/aHR0cHM6Ly9mb3JlaWducG9saWN5LmNvbS9naWZ0LXN1YnNjcmlwdGlvbnMvP3V0bV9jb250ZW50PWVuZF91bml0/6442801f88c29c4d765242dcD2f065171[Time is running out to save $100 on a subscription! Get access to Foreign Policy’s expert analysis today and enjoy a discounted rate all year.]( [SAVE $100](   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( You’re receiving this email at {EMAIL} because you signed up for FP's This Week newsletter. [MANAGE YOUR EMAIL PREFERENCES]( | [VIEW OUR PRIVACY POLICY]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Interested in partnering with FP on events, podcasts, or research? [Explore FP Solutions](. [Foreign Policy]( is a division of Graham Holdings Company. All contents © 2023 Graham Digital Holding Company LLC. All rights reserved. Foreign Policy, 655 15th St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC, 20005.