FP This Week: The Israel-Hamas War’s New Phase

Plus, is Washington stretched too thin? OCTOBER 31, 2023  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     An Israeli Army M109 155mm self-propelled howitzer fires rounds toward the Gaza Strip from a position in southern Israel across the border on Oct. 28. Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images Israel has entered “a new phase in the war” against Hamas in Gaza, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Saturday. In an [analysis]( for FP, Daniel Byman talks about Israel’s next steps. Tunnel fighting, he notes, is a nightmare. The former head of U.S. Central Command, Gen. Joseph L. Votel, [compared it]( with the Islamic State’s use of a tunnel network in Mosul, Iraq—which was a fraction of the size of Hamas’s tunnels—and warned, “It will be bloody, brutal fighting.” Hamas fighters may use the tunnels to pop up behind Israeli forces, ambushing them or even capturing more hostages. Israel has tried to [bomb]( these tunnels, but they are difficult to find and destroy from the air. Meanwhile, in Washington, Emma Ashford and Matt Kroenig talk about the [U.S. response]( in their biweekly “It’s Debatable” column. Ashford, nominally a dove, and Kroenig, more of a hawk, offer distinct perspectives on what U.S. President Joe Biden should do next on both the Israel-Hamas war and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ashford is “flabbergasted” by Kroenig’s characterization of Biden’s response to Ukraine as “cautious”; Kroenig, meanwhile, believes what’s important is Washington demonstrating an ability to dictators the world over that it can, in fact, “follow through.” Add “It’s Debatable” to your [My FP]( profile to have their lively and informed conversations arrive in your inbox every week.—The editors   More Israel-Hamas War Coverage - [How Qatar Became the Middle East’s Indispensable Mediator](: Doha’s critical role in the race to free the hostages trapped in Gaza. By Anchal Vohra - [Israel’s Military Tech Fetish Is a Failed Strategy](: A fixation on technology created an illusion of safety—and an excuse to avoid hard choices. By Franz-Stefan Gady - [‘We Will Never Forgive Netanyahu for What He Did to Us’](: Israeli journalist and Hamas attack survivor Amir Tibon on how his community is coping. By Tal Alroy - [The War With Hamas Could Threaten Israel’s Imports](: If shipping companies decide Israeli ports are too risky, the country could soon find itself running out of food. By Elisabeth Braw - [The World Can’t Solve the Israel-Hamas War Without Egypt](: Although it will prove a challenging partner, Cairo has critical interests and strong leverage in Gaza. By Jon B. Alterman, Daniel Byman   New and Noteworthy - Europe’s Past, Present, and Future: In his latest book, [Homelands: A Personal History of Europe](, author Timothy Garton Ash reflects on the peace and integration he once saw in post-World War II Europe—and how that “memory engine” appears to be sputtering. Amid the rise of anti-liberal populism and an aggressive land war, Ash’s hopes and reflections on the European project are highlighted in this [review]( for Foreign Policy. - A Dangerous Tipping Point: Among the many actors that have been involved since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Romania plays a role that should not be overlooked. In fact, [more than half]( of Ukrainian grain has been exported via Romania since the invasion began last February. However, with pressures they face surrounding their position on Ukraine and in Europe, what will Romania’s role look like in the coming months? Maximilian Hess considers this and more in an [analysis]( for Foreign Policy. - Argentina’s Next President: The presidential contest in Argentina “now appears very tight,” FP’s Catherine Osborn reports in the latest [Latin America Brief](. With three weeks left until the runoffs, Argentine Economy Minister Sérgio Massa and far-right economist and lawmaker Javier Milei have been doing everything in their power, from issuing new [income tax breaks]( to seeking international support for their campaigns, to emerge victorious in this election. [Sign up]( for Latin America Brief to receive a weekly digest of essential news and analysis from the region.   FP Live Fiona Hill: Ukraine’s Fate Now Linked to the Middle East’sOn Demand On Oct. 20, President Joe Biden appealed directly to the American people for their support as he pushed Congress to approve a $105 billion aid package—$61 billion of it for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel. How will a new conflict in the Middle East impact Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine? How will the public perceive Washington’s linking of the two conflicts? Fiona Hill, a former senior director for Europe and Russia on the National Security Council, joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a conversation on these questions and more. Watch the [on-demand video]( or read the [Q&A](. Ehud Barak on the Israel-Hamas WarOct. 31 | 10:30 a.m. EDTAs Israel pounds Gaza with aerial strikes, and amid a growing humanitarian crisis there, what should Israel’s objective be beyond hurting Hamas? Ehud Barak is a former Israeli prime minister and the country’s most decorated soldier. Barak will join FP’s Ravi Agrawal at 10:30 a.m. EDT for a live discussion about how to navigate one of the biggest crises in Israel’s 75-year history. [Register here](. Israel-Hamas War: The Regional Ripple EffectsNov. 2 | 11:00 a.m. EDTAs Israel expands its invasion of Gaza, several regional players are assessing their next moves. Hezbollah may escalate attacks from the north, and Iran has hinted at getting more directly involved. Each of Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey could yet play crucial roles in the coming weeks. And, as Foreign Policy has reported, [Qatar]( is trying to negotiate with Hamas, while [Saudi Arabia]( is largely staying out of the fray. Join FP Live for a look at the regional implications of Israel’s war on Hamas with two Middle East experts: FP columnist Steven A. Cook and Beirut-based journalist Kim Ghattas. [Register here](.   FROM FP EVENTS [Unpacking U.S.-China Relations]( Foreign Policy and the Quincy Institute are partnering to host “East Meets West,” a series of sharp and nuanced conversations to create a fuller picture of the dynamics between the U.S. and China. [Register]( to join this timely dialogue in person or virtually on Nov. 9 on how a shifting relationship between the two countries could affect global norms, multilateral institutions, military spending, and the health of the planet for the coming decades. [LEARN MORE](   Exercise Your Mind The leaders of the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces met on Thursday in which country to resume talks? - Saudi Arabia - Qatar - Egypt - Ethiopia You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.   A closer look at the bigger picture. [Get FP access today.](   More FP Analysis [Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov looks on during a meeting with his Russian, Turkish, Iranian, and Armenian counterparts to discuss the issues of the South Caucasus region in Tehran on Oct. 23. ]( [How the End of Nagorno-Karabakh Will Reshape Geopolitics]( Azerbaijan’s dramatic takeover has serious consequences for Armenia, Turkey, Iran, and beyond. By Samuel Ramani [Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shake hands at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on Feb. 23, 2018.]( [The India-Canada Rift Deepens]( New flash points in the crisis have emerged—with no offramps in sight. By Michael Kugelman [A woman rides a bicycle in the historic center of Ferrara, Italy, on June 8, 2019.]( [Europe’s Coming Reckoning on Immigration]( Large-scale immigration—likely from Africa—is the only thing that can prevent Europe from becoming an empty amusement park. By Howard W. French [BYD electric cars wait to be loaded on a ship at an export terminal in Suzhou, China, on Sept. 11.]( [Are Chinese Battery Companies the Next Huawei?]( Electric cars, charging networks, and batteries made in China come with critical security threats. By Craig Singleton [A placard showing Russian President Vladimir Putin is seen near the Russian State Duma building in Moscow on Feb. 24, 2022. ]( [The Easiest Way to Make Russia Sanctions More Effective]( Better collaboration between Britain and the EU would deal a blow to Moscow. By Agathe Demarais [How the End of Nagorno-Karabakh Will Reshape Geopolitics]( Azerbaijan’s dramatic takeover has serious consequences for Armenia, Turkey, Iran, and beyond. By Samuel Ramani [The India-Canada Rift Deepens](New flash points in the crisis have emerged—with no offramps in sight. By Michael Kugelman [Europe’s Coming Reckoning on Immigration](Large-scale immigration—likely from Africa—is the only thing that can prevent Europe from becoming an empty amusement park. By Howard W. French [Are Chinese Battery Companies the Next Huawei?](Electric cars, charging networks, and batteries made in China come with critical security threats. By Craig Singleton [The Easiest Way to Make Russia Sanctions More Effective](Better collaboration between Britain and the EU would deal a blow to Moscow. By Agathe Demarais   From Around FP - Global Reboot Season 3: The first episodes from the new season of FP’s [Global Reboot]( podcast, produced in partnership with the Doha Forum, are available on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you listen. In continuing to explore how to rebuild a world amid disruptive international events, FP’s Ravi Agrawal spoke to science journalist and author Angela Saini on [resetting gender norms]( and GiveDirectly’s Rory Stewart on the power of [direct cash transfers](. - All About AI: Yesterday, the White House [announced]( an executive order to regulate AI systems in an era of rapid technological innovation. How did we get here? What do experts see for Washington’s role amid this technological growth? Revisit FP’s Summer 2023 magazine, “[The Scramble for AI](,” for answers to these questions and critical reflections on the future of AI technology. Plus: Join a [free partner event]( next week on the realities and risks of generative AI. - Adam Tooze on Global Tensions: “Communication between Washington and Beijing was at a low,” Adam Tooze wrote in his [latest Chartbook newsletter]( about dynamics between the two countries at the beginning of 2023. “Of course, what we face today is nothing like the proxy war waged between the Soviet Union and its Arab allies, Israel and the United States in 1973. But imagine, if our current anxiety about a widening conflict in the Middle East, was playing out against the backdrop of the apparently uncontrolled escalation in Sino-US tension earlier this year.” [Expert Voices, Intelligent Analysis]( [Get insights into world affairs from a different perspective and from authors with deep knowledge. 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