FP This Week: Analysis on the Israel-Hamas war to read right now

Plus, a profile of Poland’s likely new leader, and is America really Rome? OCTOBER 17, 2023  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     Brian Stauffer illustration for Foreign Policy What Hamas wrought in Israel earlier this month is almost impossible to bear—the “astonishing spectacle and intimate horrors” of the attack, as Ian Lustick writes, make it even more difficult than usual to see a way out. Yet “we must not rely on the certainty of our revulsion,” the emeritus professor at the University of Pennsylvania suggests; instead, “we must identify and remove the causes of the attack.” To do this requires what Lustick calls a “wider temporal framing.” Read on for more of Lustick’s argument that [vengeance is not a policy](. There are two other important pieces of analysis to read right now. One is by Kenneth Pollack, of the American Enterprise Institute, on why the now-commonplace analogy between [the 1973 Arab-Israeli War]( and Hamas’s assault goes deeper than mere timing. In fact, “the deeper you go in the tactical military aspects of the two assaults set 50 years apart,” Pollack writes, “the more obvious it is that Hamas mimicked the Egyptians.” The second is the latest installment of our popular column It’s Debatable, which takes the format of a conversation between the Stimson Center’s Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig of the Atlantic Council. (You can add It’s Debatable to your [My FP alerts]( to receive each new edition in your inbox.) Ashford and Kroenig discussed whether [Washington’s Middle East policy]( has failed, and while they can agree on some practical solutions, including targeted sanctions, the two cannot find consensus on how to think about Iran’s role in the Hamas attack. It’s a reminder of the situation’s immense complexities—and of the need to seek out a variety of informed perspectives, as FP strives to provide.—The editors   Expert Q&A on the Israel-Hamas War As always, FP reporters and editors are talking to experts who can contextualize developments in this ongoing story. Recent conversations include: [What a Ground Invasion Means for Israeli Hostages:]( A former White House official who oversaw the Iran hostage crisis, Gary Sick, weighs in. [Can Israel Handle a War on 2 Fronts?:]( Tamir Hayman, a former head of Israeli intelligence, assesses the government's capabilities. [What the War Means for the World Economy:]( With Palestinians already reeling, Adam Tooze explains how a wider conflict could trigger a surge in oil prices. [Why the Israeli Hostages Face Grim Prospects:]( Boaz Ganor, an experienced hostage negotiator, details the trade-offs confronting Israel’s government. [‘Palestinians Live in a State of Despair’:]( Regional expert Khaled Elgindy on the political future of the Palestinian people.   New and Noteworthy - Polish opposition victory: In a parliamentary election on Sunday, [record turnout]( across Poland dealt a defeat to the governing Law and Justice nationalist party as three opposition parties appear to have won enough votes to take back control. Revisit this 2018 FP profile for more on [Donald Tusk](, the opposition coalition leader and former Polish prime minister who seems poised to lead the nation once again, and don’t miss last week’s analysis by Nicholas Lokker on the [broader EU implications]( of Poland’s election. - Is America really Rome?: “A new history of empire is far too British,” writes Bret Devereaux in his review of Peter Heather and John Rapley’s Why Empires Fall: Rome, America, and the Future of the West, with much of the United States’ global world missing from their narrative. “As [a history of Rome](, the book is fascinating, but as a lesson for our times, it is shaky,” Devereaux writes. “While Heather and Rapley provide a masterful vision of the whole of the late Roman Empire, they write on the apparent decline of the modern Western ‘empire’ from a perspective on its periphery.”   FP Live David Petraeus on a World at WarOct. 17 | 11 a.m. EDTIn recent months, political analysts have bemoaned Ukraine’s slow progress in its counteroffensive against Russian forces. But retired U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus thinks the conventional wisdom about Kyiv’s performance is premature—and possibly wrong. With recent events in the Middle East, the discussion will also include Israel’s ground offensive in Gaza after Hamas’s deadly attacks on Oct. 7. [Register here](. How a Dysfunctional Congress Is Impacting U.S. Foreign PolicyTense U.S.-China relations, the ongoing [Israel-Hamas War](, and a paralyzed House of Representatives are putting Washington to the test. How has the Biden administration responded? What do those actions signal to the rest of the world? Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, a member of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, joined FP Live for a discussion on how turmoil in Washington jeopardizes the United States’ ability to handle multiple geopolitical crises. [Watch]( the full conversation or read the [Q&A](. Also, read the latest report from FP’s Robbie Gramer on how [congressional chaos]( is hampering U.S. aid to Israel and Ukraine. Fiona Hill on the Latest From Russia and UkraineOct. 26 | 11 a.m. EDTIt’s never easy to guess what Russian President Vladimir Putin might be thinking, but it’s always useful to learn how Fiona Hill views the state of play. Hill is one of the world’s foremost experts on Russian affairs and served as a senior director for Europe and Russia on the U.S. National Security Council. She will join FP Live to discuss the latest on the war and the world’s efforts to constrain Putin. [Register here](.   FROM FP EVENTS [Join FP’s 5th Annual Her Power Summit]( At the 2023 Her Power Summit, women’s rights are the agenda. The event will feature women who are actively challenging the status quo in legal and policy arenas, holding ground in and reforming traditionally male-dominated institutions, mobilizing and channeling critical resources, leveraging technology and innovation, generating returns in business, elevating marginalized voices to positions of strength, and reimagining international cooperation. Join us to be a part of this transformative dialogue on the future of women’s rights across all sectors of society. [Register]( to join the program in person or virtually on Oct. 25, and learn more about our speakers and mentors. LEARN MORE   Regional Responses to the Israel-Hamas War FP [newsletters]( are an excellent way to follow the latest news and analysis. Here’s a preview of last week’s briefs, covering the developments in the Middle East: China Walks Tightrope on Israel-Hamas War: “Beijing finds itself in a tricky position. China has consistently supported the Palestinian cause, due to its alignment with Maoism and liberation movements in the 1960s and 1970s. In those years, Beijing armed and trained the PLO and other Palestinian militant groups …” [Read more]( from the latest China Brief by James Palmer. Israel-Hamas Conflict Tests Abraham Accords: “In recent months, there had been talks that the Abraham Accords and a potential normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia could lead Egypt and Morocco to broker de-escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict. But as fighting spreads and a possible Israeli reoccupation of Gaza looms, it is a stark reminder that the Abraham Accords will not bring peace …” [Read more]( from the latest Africa Brief by Nosmot Gbadamosi. Will India Draw Closer to Israel?: “India will likely keep a low public profile during the war, privately signaling its support to Israel while communicating to Palestinian interlocutors that its expressions of solidarity with Israel are a reaction to Hamas terrorism and not a rejection of the Palestinian cause. Given the reported unhappiness among India’s Arab partners about New Delhi’s refusal to mention Israel’s retaliatory operations in Gaza, an Indian statement calling for de-escalation and dialogue can’t be ruled out …” [Read more]( from the latest South Asia Brief by Michael Kugelman. How the Mideast Is Seen From the Southwest: “In the aftermath of Hamas’s gruesome Saturday morning attack on Israel, governments across Latin America began issuing statements reacting to the event. As is common in the global south, most Latin American countries diplomatically recognize Palestine. Many of their official statements, in addition to condemning Hamas, went further to urge de-escalation and dialogue to peacefully resolve the Israel-Palestinian conflict …”[Read more]( from the latest Latin America Brief by Catherine Osborn. 3 Factors That Will Shape the War: “SitRep has spoken to more than a dozen officials, regional experts, and U.S. lawmakers about the brewing conflict and what happens if it escalates beyond Gaza. Boiling all their insights down into just one newsletter is incredibly difficult, particularly given how rapidly the situation is evolving, but broadly speaking three factors will shape the conflict …” [Read more]( from the latest Situation Report by Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch.   Expert voices, intelligent analysis. [Get FP access today](.   More FP Coverage [Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas holds a placard showing maps tracing the reduction of Palestinian territory from its historical borders, left, to then-U.S. President Donald Trump's proposal for a Palestinian state under his new peace plan, far right, as he speaks in Ramallah on Sept. 3, 2020. ]( [The Geopolitics of Palestine, Explained]( Gaza wasn’t always the hot spot it is today. By Allison Meakem [An Israeli soldier stands in a Merkava battle tank as it deploys with other tanks along the border with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel on Oct. 13, 2023. ]( [Israel’s Intelligence Failure Is a Wake-Up Call for NATO]( Officials in Brussels are questioning the extent of their reliance on technology. By Jack Detsch, Rishi Iyengar [Thousands of people attend a “New York Stands With Israel” vigil and rally in New York City on Oct. 10.]( [The Peril in Declaring ‘I Stand With Israel’]( Such sentiments stymie discussion of the harder questions around Israel’s treatment of Palestinians. By Howard W. French [Palestinians gather in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank on Oct. 10, 2023, to express their support for the Gaza Strip. ]( [The View From Ramallah]( Palestinians see a double standard in Western support for Ukraine’s fight against occupation. By Dalia Hatuqa [A Guide to Palestinian and Other Anti-Israel Factions]( Hamas is not the only group vying to lead the Palestinians—or the fight against Israel. By Alexandra Sharp, Rishi Iyengar [The Geopolitics of Palestine, Explained]( Gaza wasn’t always the hot spot it is today. By Allison Meakem [Israel’s Intelligence Failure Is a Wake-Up Call for NATO](Officials in Brussels are questioning the extent of their reliance on technology. By Jack Detsch, Rishi Iyengar [The Peril in Declaring ‘I Stand With Israel’](Such sentiments stymie discussion of the harder questions around Israel’s treatment of Palestinians. By Howard W. French [The View From Ramallah](Palestinians see a double standard in Western support for Ukraine’s fight against occupation. By Dalia Hatuqa [A Guide to Palestinian and Other Anti-Israel Factions](Hamas is not the only group vying to lead the Palestinians—or the fight against Israel. By Alexandra Sharp, Rishi Iyengar   From Around FP - Defending Democracy: On Nov. 15, join Foreign Policy in partnership with the National Democratic Institute to explore the people and policies that have become “game changers” to strengthen democracy, protect the environment and natural resources, and help defenders of democracy counter illiberal influences in their own countries. [Register here]( for the virtual dialogue, and then [watch]( the first event in this series, which convened policymakers and rising youth activists to discuss the younger generation’s relationship to democracy. - The Hollywood Dealmaker: The Writers Guild of America struck a deal recently with Hollywood studios, ending one of the longest strikes in the union’s history. Ellen Stutzman, the assistant executive director of the Writers Guild of America West, was the union’s chief negotiator in the talks. She spoke with FP Studios senior producer Laura Rosbrow-Telem for the latest episode of [The Negotiators](, the most extensive interview Stutzman has given since the deal was reached. Listen on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Negotiators is a collaboration between Doha Debates and Foreign Policy. - Adam Tooze on Gaza: “In preparation for a massive retaliatory operation against Hamas, Israel has instructed the population of Northern Gaza to evacuate,” Adam Tooze writes in his [latest Chartbook newsletter](. “We know why the IDF issued the order. It wants to minimize civilian casualties. But apart from the practical and humanitarian question of where such a huge mass of people are supposed to go and how they are to support themselves, we must face the question: What kind of place is Gaza, that it can be subject to such instructions?” Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. 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