FP This Week: The next big weather event

Plus, Zimbabwe’s ‘white gold’ and a London festival. AUGUST 22, 2023  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     View of the dried lake of La Sabana Metropolitan Park in San Jose, Costa Rica, on May 14, 2019. The lake was affected by droughts caused by El Niño. Ezequiel Becerra/AFP via Getty Images What happens in the east-central Pacific doesn’t stay there. As Jet Propulsion Laboratory scientist Josh Willis has said, “when the Pacific speaks, the whole world listens”—and it’s about to roar. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is now forecasting a moderate-to-strong El Niño season to continue through February 2024. This forecast has “vast implications,” Cullen Hendrix [writes](, potentially fueling maritime conflict and territorial ambitions in the East and South China Seas, as well as endangering global food and public health systems in countries ill-equipped for the fallout.—The editors   New and Noteworthy - Zimbabwe’s ‘White Gold’: Harare has Africa’s largest lithium reserves, and Beijing is poised to benefit despite an export ban, FP’s Nosmot Gbadamosi [reports]( in the latest Africa Brief. Africa could supply a fifth of the world’s lithium needs by 2030, but to best serve citizens, leaders are demanding that miners go beyond extraction and add value by locally processing the raw mineral. China is already positioned to comply with new local and regional regulations at multiple recently completed processing plants, as U.S. sanctions leave Zimbabwe with few options for alternative partners. [Sign up]( for Africa Brief to receive a weekly digest of essential news and analysis from the region. - The Event You Don’t Want to Miss This Summer: Fan of big ideas and stimulating debate? FP is a proud partner of [HowTheLightGetsIn](, the world’s largest philosophy and music festival, returns to London this Sept. 23–24. Renowned as a hub for world-leading thinkers, politicians, philosophers, scientists, and artists, this year’s festival theme is “Dangers, Desire, and Destiny.” Expect to see Richard Wolff, Carol Gilligan, Alastair Campbell, Rory Stewart, Sabine Hossenfelder, Michio Kaku, and more lock horns over a packed weekend of debates, talks and performances. We’re thrilled to offer 30 percent off full festival tickets with code FPL30. [Get your discounted tickets here.]( - The Fighter Jet Market Enters Its Multipolar Era: “Jet engines may seem insignificant compared with, say, high-profile sales of fighter jets or tanks,” Richard Aboulafia [writes](, but “national combat aircraft are making a comeback.” If Washington doesn’t adapt by not only exporting F-35s but also prioritizing the sale of the systems and technologies that power other countries’ jets, can the United States keep up with new competition from Russia, France, India, and others?   FP Live The Ask-Me-Anything EditionViewers of FP Live regularly see host Ravi Agrawal quiz world leaders and policymakers. In a special Ask-Me-Anything episode, Agrawal fields your questions in conversation with executive editor Amelia Lester. A recording of the conversation will be released on Friday, Aug. 25. [Sign up]( for FP Live updates to receive a link to watch, and check out the full library of past FP Live interviews.   Exercise Your Mind U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday hosted leaders from which two nations for a trilateral summit at Camp David in Maryland? - Saudi Arabia, Israel - France, Germany - Mexico, Colombia - South Korea, Japan You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. [Click here]( to take the rest of our weekly news quiz.   Expert voices, intelligent analysis. [Get FP access today](.   It’s Debatable: Arm Ukraine or Push for Peace? In this week’s [debate](, FP’s Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig weigh calls for negotiation rather than escalation, as Ukraine’s counteroffensive hasn’t led to major breakthroughs. EA: Like a lot of folks, I think we were keen not to dismiss Ukraine’s chances without giving it enough time. But now that Ukraine itself acknowledges that the offensive is proceeding far more slowly than initially hoped, and it’s being widely reported in the press, we need to talk about the poor progress of the offensive, the Western choices that played into the situation, and what the future of the conflict looks like. Do we agree on the facts? Ukraine has taken relatively little territory; has been forced to commit its reserves without any major breakthrough; and while I wouldn’t call the offensive a failure, it’s not a stunning success either. MK: We agree on those facts, but I think part of the problem was not Ukraine’s performance, but unrealistic expectations in the West. Given recent history, like the smashing of Saddam Hussein’s regular military in 2003, Americans tend to think of offensive military operations as something done with overwhelming force and lasting only a matter of weeks. But in Ukraine we are talking about Russia, a dug-in great power playing defense against a less powerful foe. What is the better historical comparison? The last time the free world tried to dislodge a European great power was arguably World War II, and it took the United States and its allies almost two years from the start of the Italian campaign, after Germany occupied much of Italy, to the end of the war to defeat the Nazis. We probably should have expected that this was going to take some time… [Read their full conversation.]( Also: Read an [analysis]( by Verena Hölzl on what Ukraine can learn from Cambodia and Laos’s direct experience with the aftermath of U.S. cluster bombs, now deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine.   Most Popular on FP [A sign marks the test site of the first atomic bomb in the desert of Trinity, New Mexico, on May 28, 2009.]( [Can We Learn from Oppenheimer in Responding to Climate Change?]( Like atomic energy, geoengineering could change the nature of the world. That’s why it needs international guardrails and guidelines. By Cynthia Scharf [Timothy Garton Ash is pictured at the 2023 Oxford Literary Festival in England on March 25. ]( [Timothy Garton Ash Misunderstands Liberalism]( The British writer aimed to be the liberal intellectual of his generation—and ended up a victim of his own repressed dogmas. By Blake Smith [U.S. President Joe Biden takes the stage during a visit to a TSMC semiconductor fabrication plant under construction in Phoenix, Arizona, on Dec. 6, 2022. ]( [U.S.-China De-Risking Will Inevitably Escalate]( The logic of reducing dependence always ends in a downward spiral. By James Crabtree [Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Kathmandu, Nepal, for a summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation on Nov. 25, 2014.]( [India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia]( Beijing’s attempts to encircle New Delhi are being systematically reversed. By Derek Grossman [A woman holding a Ukrainian flag speaks during a pro-Ukraine rally in Brussels on June 29. ]( [Ukraine’s Appeals to Europe Can Alienate Others]( Rhetoric about “European civilization” clashes with anti-colonial ideals. By Emily Couch, Kimberly St. Julian-Varnon [Can We Learn from Oppenheimer in Responding to Climate Change?]( Like atomic energy, geoengineering could change the nature of the world. That’s why it needs international guardrails and guidelines. By Cynthia Scharf [Timothy Garton Ash Misunderstands Liberalism](The British writer aimed to be the liberal intellectual of his generation—and ended up a victim of his own repressed dogmas. By Blake Smith [U.S.-China De-Risking Will Inevitably Escalate](The logic of reducing dependence always ends in a downward spiral. By James Crabtree [India Is Pushing Back Against China in South Asia](Beijing’s attempts to encircle New Delhi are being systematically reversed. By Derek Grossman [Ukraine’s Appeals to Europe Can Alienate Others](Rhetoric about “European civilization” clashes with anti-colonial ideals. By Emily Couch, Kimberly St. Julian-Varnon   From Around FP - Defending Democracy: As youth populations around the world are increasingly disillusioned by establishment politics, this new generation’s leaders are turning to activism to drive institutional democratic change. On Sept. 12, join the National Democratic Institute and Foreign Policy to highlight these youth leaders and explore what the future of democracy will look like. [Register here]( to attend this virtual conversation. - Time to Adapt: During the upcoming U.N. General Assembly session, Foundation S and Africa-Europe Foundation will host with Foreign Policy a high-level event to advance the conversation on financing climate adaptation solutions to address health inequities. The Sept. 20 event will also launch an action report produced by the Collective MindS Climate Council, the think tank of Foundation S, highlighting the connection between climate change and health, and the importance of supporting locally led adaptation solutions to strengthen health resilience. [Register here]( to attend in person or online. - Insights for Your Team: With group subscriptions, FP has built tools to fit seamlessly into your workflow and, more importantly, your budget. Save time and money with consolidated billing, easy management of users, and volume discounts. Share content with peers or students with unrestricted access across platforms. And stay focused with an ad-free experience on the site. [Get access]( for your organization now. Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: D. South Korea, Japan. Biden invited his closest Asia-Pacific allies, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, for the three countries’ first standalone trilateral summit. [Read]( about the “commitment to consult” that resulted from the meeting in Friday’s World Brief. [Coming Soon: The Fall 2023 Issue]( [Foreign Policy goes beyond the headlines, shining light on the most important global conversations. Become an Annual subscriber to guarantee home delivery of the new issue, out in September.]( [GET THE MAGAZINE](   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( You’re receiving this email at {EMAIL} because you signed up for the FP This Week newsletter. [MANAGE YOUR EMAIL PREFERENCES]( | [VIEW OUR PRIVACY POLICY]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Reach the [right online audience]( with us. [Foreign Policy]( is a division of Graham Holdings Company. All contents © 2023 Graham Digital Holding Company LLC. All rights reserved. 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