FP This Week: What’s the big deal about hydrogen?

Adam Tooze cuts through the hype. JULY 18, 2023  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     An employee of Air Liquide in front of an electrolyzer at the company's future hydrogen production facility of renewable hydrogen in Oberhausen, Germany, on May 2. Ina Fassbender/ AFP via Getty Images Is hydrogen a key part of the world’s energy future—or a mirage of the energy transition? It is a question on which tens of trillions of dollars in investment may end up hinging. Which makes it all the more important, Adam Tooze [writes](, to “beware the efforts of powerful vested interests to use radical technological visions to channel us toward what are in fact conservative and ruinously expensive options.” Is that the case for so-called “green hydrogen”? [Read on]( to discover Tooze’s take on the most hyped industry of the moment.—The Editors   New and Noteworthy - Russia Pauses Ukraine Black Sea Grain Deal: Russia [announced]( Monday that it is pulling out of a year-old deal allowing Ukraine to ship grain after negotiations to secure its extension failed. “Moscow has repeatedly attempted to upend the agreement to extract key concessions, intensifying concerns about the future of Ukraine’s hard-hit agricultural industry and the global food insecurity,” FP’s Christina Lu [reports](. - Why Did Foxconn Pull Out of Its India Deal?: Last week, Taiwanese electronics maker Foxconn, a major Apple supplier, pulled out of a joint venture with Indian conglomerate Vedanta to set up semiconductor plants in India. “For all of India’s recent successes in positioning itself as a global technology player,” Michael Kugelman [writes](, “it still has much work to do—especially when it comes to addressing private sector concerns.” [Read]( the latest South Asia Brief for more on how New Delhi might respond to this setback, and [sign up]( to receive the latest regional news and analysis to your inbox every Wednesday. - The Challenging Economics of Women in Mining: On the latest [episode]( of [The Hidden Economics of Remarkable Women](, reporter Leah Kahunde visits female artisanal stone miners in Uganda as well as male allies helping these women to advance in the industry. Host Reena Ninan also interviews Lynn Gitu, a program leader in Uganda for the nonprofit IMPACT, which seeks to help decrease conflicts around natural resources in Africa and enable communities to benefit more from their local resources. [Listen]( to Season 3 of HERO—a podcast from Foreign Policy with funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation—on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you get your podcasts.   FP Live How to Reset the U.S.-China RelationshipJuly 20, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDTU.S. Rep. Ro Khanna says Washington needs to rebalance its economic relationship with Beijing. Khanna will join FP’s Ravi Agrawal for an in-depth discussion about not only China but also Ukraine, U.S. national security priorities, trade policy, and more. [Register here.]( ‘This Mutiny Has Weakened Putin in the Long Term’On Monday, FP Live hosted Andrea Kendall-Taylor, the director of the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS, for a conversation on the ongoing [fallout]( from last month’s Wagner rebellion—including Moscow’s efforts to separate the mercenary organization’s top leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, from its assets and operations—as well as how Putin is maintaining a grip on his military, Russia’s elite, and the country at large. Kendall-Taylor and FP’s Ravi Agrawal also discussed the significance of the latest attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge and Ukraine’s [progress]( in the ongoing counteroffensive. [Watch the full conversation.](   Exercise Your Mind By how many votes did progressive Thai politician [Pita Limjaroenrat]( fall short of becoming prime minister in the first round of parliamentary voting on Thursday? - 25 - 51 - 73 - 101 You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. [Click here]( to take the rest of our weekly news quiz.   Expert voices, intelligent analysis. [Get FP access today](.   It’s Debatable: Would the Israel Model Work for Ukraine? The NATO summit offered Kyiv mostly vague pledges and empty rhetoric—but there could be other ways to defend the country short of alliance membership. FP columnists Emma Ashford and Matthew Kroenig weigh Ukraine’s path forward. MK: The White House was understandably worried that, given NATO’s Article 5 commitment, near-term membership would mean a NATO-Russia war, but there are ways around that problem. [West Germany]( was brought into NATO as a divided country, for example, and the alliance could have similarly granted Article 5 protections only to the territory already under Ukrainian control. The Israel model does not make sense for Ukraine. Israel has nuclear weapons. Ukraine does not—anymore. ([Thankfully](, Washington talked Kyiv into giving up the nuclear weapons left on its territory when the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s.) Israel’s enemies do not have nuclear weapons. Ukraine’s enemy does. Washington guarantees Israel a “qualitative military edge” through its dominance of the conventional arms market in the Middle East. It cannot guarantee Ukraine such an edge over Russia. Plus, the Israel model basically only formalizes what the free world has already been doing for the past year and a half. It has already been providing Ukraine with high levels of military and economic support, and that has not led to peace. People ask, how will this war end? The answer is by bringing Ukraine into NATO. Putin has used military force on the territory of almost all of Russia’s neighbors that are not NATO members (Georgia, Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Moldova, etc.). He has used force zero times against NATO members. Leaving Ukraine in a gray zone means giving Putin a green light. EA: Yes, Israel has nuclear weapons, but it has always relied first and foremost on conventional deterrence. Indeed, if Israel really relied on its nuclear weapons for deterrence, then Washington wouldn’t even need to help it maintain an edge! And Israel’s neighbors have started wars despite that nuclear deterrent. There’s no reason it couldn’t work in Ukraine. You’re right that the Israel model for Ukraine would effectively be a formalization of what’s happening now, but I would argue that it’s actually more credible as a promise because of that. Biden would commit to maintain a suitable level of support to Ukraine, rather than making a potential future promise to include it in an alliance. It’s a bird in the hand, rather than two in the bush. I think Ukraine would be wise to focus its efforts there, not on NATO membership. After all, this summit shows that membership for Ukraine is simply not on the agenda in the near term. Continue reading this [conversation]( on ForeignPolicy.com. Follow up on last week’s developments: FP’s Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch [report]( on NATO’s significant new defense plans, and Ilke Toygür and Max Bergmann [write]( that Ukraine’s efforts to enter the EU will be harder than any NATO accession.   Most Popular on FP [A view of Building 10 on the campus of Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States on March 12, 2020. ]( [Chinese Scientists Are Leaving the United States]( Here’s why that spells bad news for Washington. By Christina Lu, Anusha Rathi [Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and U.S. President Barack Obama chat after a bilateral meeting at the G-20 summit in Los Cabos, Mexico, on June 18, 2012.]( [The Long, Destructive Shadow of Obama’s Russia Doctrine]( A series of bad decisions during the Obama years prepared the ground for Vladimir Putin’s war. By Adrian Karatnycky [Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greet each other at the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, on July 27, 2018. ]( [India’s New Geopolitics]( New Delhi is projecting its power in new ways. By FP Contributors [U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer speaks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the Xijiao Conference Center in Shanghai on July 31, 2019. ]( [Trump Trade War Mastermind Is Back With a Dangerous New Plan]( Robert Lighthizer wants total decoupling from China—without thinking through the consequences. By Bob Davis [Smoke plumes billow from a fire at a lumber warehouse in Khartoum amid ongoing fighting between Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemeti, on June 7. ]( [How Sudan Became a Saudi-UAE Proxy War]( Gulf heavyweights view the conflict as an opportunity to cement their hegemonic status in the Middle East. By Talal Mohammad [Chinese Scientists Are Leaving the United States]( Here’s why that spells bad news for Washington. By Christina Lu, Anusha Rathi [The Long, Destructive Shadow of Obama’s Russia Doctrine](A series of bad decisions during the Obama years prepared the ground for Vladimir Putin’s war. By Adrian Karatnycky [India’s New Geopolitics](New Delhi is projecting its power in new ways. By FP Contributors [Trump Trade War Mastermind Is Back With a Dangerous New Plan](Robert Lighthizer wants total decoupling from China—without thinking through the consequences. By Bob Davis [How Sudan Became a Saudi-UAE Proxy War](Gulf heavyweights view the conflict as an opportunity to cement their hegemonic status in the Middle East. By Talal Mohammad   From Around FP - ‘Bounding Reality’ in the Inflation Debate: “In the US inflation debate that has been on-going since 2021, there were three broad positions: hard landing, soft landing and team transitory,” FP columnist Adam Tooze [writes]( in his latest Chartbook newsletter. “In light of the most recent numbers, with both inflation and unemployment in the three percent band, only two remain plausible.” [Read the full edition.]( - Meet FP at UNGA 78: During the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in New York, Foreign Policy will bring together policymakers, experts, and thought leaders to discuss complex and interconnected issues, including the global energy transition, food security and sustainability, pandemic preparedness, universal health coverage, and the implications of digital transformation across the world. Conversations will examine the future of global governance and opportunities to drive progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals. [Learn more]( about our agenda, and [sign up]( to receive speaker and programming updates. - Cyber Operations in Warfare—Ukraine and Beyond: [FP Analytics]( asked global experts to share their perspectives on the latest shifts in cyber operations and how the private sector, global governments, and civil society can most effectively work together to combat them. Explore insights from Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister [Mykhailo Fedorov](, former U.S. National Cyber Director [Chris Inglis](, and more in the new “[Digital Front Lines](” report, produced with support from Microsoft. Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: (B) 51. Pita could be the most significant liberal leader in recent Southeast Asian history—if he can rally enough support to form a functioning government, as FP’s Jack Detsch and Ashley Ahn [explored]( in a recent profile of the politician. foreignpolicy.com/subscribe Geopolitics matters [Get a closer look at the big picture. Access FP's daily reporting and analysis of global politics, plus magazine packages that go deeper than the headlines.](foreignpolicy.com/subscribe) [SUBSCRIBE TODAY](foreignpolicy.com/subscribe)   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( You’re receiving this email at {EMAIL} because you signed up for the FP This Week newsletter. [MANAGE YOUR EMAIL PREFERENCES]( | [VIEW OUR PRIVACY POLICY]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Reach the [right online audience]( with us. [Foreign Policy]( is a division of Graham Holdings Company. All contents © 2023 Graham Digital Holding Company LLC. All rights reserved. Foreign Policy, 655 15th St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC, 20005.