FP This Week: What this weekend in Russia means

Plus, is India really the next superpower? JUNE 27, 2023  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a video address as Wagner Group mercenaries stage a rebellion on June 24. Gavriil Grigorov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images Although their revolt was abruptly curtailed, the dramatic images over the weekend of a 25,000-strong force of armed mercenaries advancing toward Moscow under the instruction of Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin have raised questions about the authority of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “With Putin no longer able to control the rival armed gangs of his own creation,” [argues]( Yale professor Jeffrey A. Sonnenfeld, writing with former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon M. Huntsman Jr. and head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign William F. Browder, “his armor has been pierced.” (For more on the Wagner Group, see this [Explainer]( by FP’s Amy Mackinnon.) Russia’s ruling class is certainly concerned, said Tatiana Stanovaya, an expert on Russian politics with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. “The feeling and sentiment of these people now is that they are feeling like the situation is falling apart,” said Stanovaya in a [Q&A]( with Foreign Policy. “Elites before this used to always feel that there is vertical control and a strong state and stability with Putin.”—The editors   New and Noteworthy - The Next Superpower?: When India overtook China in April to become the world’s most populous country, observers wondered whether it would become the next global superpower. The question has only become more relevant in recent days with U.S. President Joe Biden rolling out the red carpet for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington. “Yet before inhaling the narrative of a rapidly rising India too deeply,” Harvard’s Graham Allison writes, “we should pause to reflect on [four inconvenient truths](” about the nation’s contemporary realities. - What AI Can Tell Us About Putin’s Next Steps in Ukraine: AI models have successfully anticipated Russia’s military shifts, including a prediction of a Ukrainian counteroffensive and drone attacks from both sides. Our FP Insider [exclusive analysis]( indicates a combination of old and new warfare tactics, such as trench warfare reminiscent of World War I alongside modern kinetic operations. The emergence of a new Russian paramilitary group called Potok, run by Gazprom, may play a significant role in the conflict as Russia struggles to maintain control over its primary contractor, Wagner Group. - Erdogan and Europe Are Stuck in a Draw: The Turkish president won reelection on an anti-Western platform. But [he can’t quit European soccer](. The 2023 Champions League Final took place in Istanbul’s Ataturk Olympic Stadium, with Manchester City defeating Inter Milan 1-0. The event showcased Turkey’s desire to maintain ties with Europe despite political tensions. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan used the final as an opportunity to engage with his European counterparts, emphasizing Turkey’s role in European club soccer and projecting an image of success.   FP Live What AI Means for Global PowerJune 28, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDT Who will win the AI race? What does it mean for critical minerals and mining? How will it impact global trade, sanctions, and great-power competition? Join FP’s Ravi Agrawal in conversation with Paul Scharre, the author of Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, to discuss his [lead essay]( in FP’s Summer 2023 print issue, “The Scramble for AI.” [Register here](. How to Reset the U.S.-China RelationshipJuly 7, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDT U.S. Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna has a proposal for improving the most important relationship in the world.A member of the House select committee on China, Khanna says Washington needs to rebalance its economic relationship with Beijing. Khanna will join FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal for an in-depth discussion about not only China, but also Ukraine, U.S. national security priorities, trade policy, and more. [Register here](.   Exercise Your Mind Estonian lawmakers last Tuesday approved legislation allowing for what, starting in 2024? - Same-sex marriage - Women’s military conscription - Eased gun restrictions - Anti-Russian education You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. [Click here]( to take the rest of our weekly news quiz.   Expert voices, intelligent analysis. [Get FP access today](.   China Brief: China’s Economic Downturn China’s economic recovery since lifting its zero-COVID policy appears to be a flop: Data in the last month reveals record-high youth unemployment and shrinking credit demand. E-commerce companies didn’t release full sales numbers during a major shopping day on Sunday, suggesting low consumer spending. Small businesses are struggling, and the government is in crisis mode—seeking answers from business leaders and economists for a problem largely of its own making. Even before the pandemic, the Chinese economy was showing signs of slowing down. But today, public confidence is the biggest single factor in the faltering economy. After the last few years, people are unwilling to spend and unwilling to make even slightly risky investments. COVID-19 lockdowns tested ordinary households’ savings—not only through income losses but also through delivery costs and price gouging as basic goods ran short. In 2022, household savings rose by 80 percent from the previous year; that money isn’t being spent now. Compared to those in Western countries, small and medium-sized businesses in China received little financial aid, despite more severe restrictions. And while the Chinese government has done its best to pretend that the lockdowns—and the wave of mass infection after the zero-COVID policy was lifted—never happened, they are burned into public memory. Although people may not fear lockdowns at this point, even amid another rise in COVID-19 cases in China, they are much more aware of the power of the government to radically alter their lives… [Continue reading]( this brief online or [sign up]( to get China expert James Palmer’s insights delivered to your inbox every week.   Most Popular on FP [Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian shakes hands with his Saudi counterpart Faisal bin Farhan in Tehran on June 17.]( [The Middle East Might Be Moving Toward Stability]( Heightened great power competition is allowing nations to make deals in their own best interests. By Ross Harrison, Alex Vatanka [A man walks past the tail section of an unexploded rocket containing cluster submunitions in Lysychansk, Ukraine, on April 11, 2022. ]( [Cluster Munitions Are Biden’s Latest Slow-Roll on Ukraine Aid]( Yes, they can put some civilians at risk—but that should be the Ukrainians’ call to make. By John Hardie [U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Beijing on June 18.]( [Anti-China Rhetoric Distracts Washington—and Boosts Beijing]( Panic and fear should not drive U.S. foreign policy. By Gregory W. Meeks [Russian conscripts attend a religious service on May 23.]( [Wagner’s Revolt May Weaken Russia’s Draft]( Conscripts will fear being used as stopgaps in Ukraine. By Elisabeth Braw [Members of Russia’s Wagner Group sit on top of a tank in a street in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24.]( [Russian Leaders Pledge Loyalty to Putin]( After the Wagner Group’s weekend insurrection, Moscow’s political frailty seems to be at an all-time high. By Alexandra Sharp [The Middle East Might Be Moving Toward Stability]( Heightened great power competition is allowing nations to make deals in their own best interests. By Ross Harrison, Alex Vatanka [Cluster Munitions Are Biden’s Latest Slow-Roll on Ukraine Aid](Yes, they can put some civilians at risk—but that should be the Ukrainians’ call to make. By John Hardie [Anti-China Rhetoric Distracts Washington—and Boosts Beijing](Panic and fear should not drive U.S. foreign policy. By Gregory W. Meeks [Wagner’s Revolt May Weaken Russia’s Draft](Conscripts will fear being used as stopgaps in Ukraine. By Elisabeth Braw [Russian Leaders Pledge Loyalty to Putin](After the Wagner Group’s weekend insurrection, Moscow’s political frailty seems to be at an all-time high. By Alexandra Sharp   From Around FP - Talking Inflation in Germany: Is Germany getting ever poorer? Get FP columnist Adam Tooze’s take in the latest edition of [Chartbook](. - Is India Taking Advantage of America?: In its geopolitical struggle with China, the thinking goes, the United States can rely on India as a key partner. Longtime U.S. policymaker and India analyst Ashley Tellis disagrees: He argues that New Delhi is likely to do only what serves its interests, and that Washington should beware. Is he right? Tellis debates FP Live host Ravi Agrawal. Listen to this episode of [FP Live]( on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you get your podcasts. - Press Room: Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch recently [discussed]( the Russian Wagner group's failed revolt on Denver’s radio station, KOA. Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: 1.) Same-sex marriage. Many in Estonia may have begun to associate anti-gay bigotry with Russia’s imperial aggression. Johanna Chisholm [wrote]( about a similar trend in Ukraine earlier this year. foreignpolicy.com/subscribe Geopolitics matters [Get a closer look at the big picture. 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