FP This Week: Assessing Ukraine’s counteroffensive

Plus, Berlusconi’s friendship with Putin. JUNE 13, 2023  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     A Ukrainian soldier fires a rocket launcher during a military training exercise not far from the front line in the Donetsk region on June 8. Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now underway, and already it’s facing a multitude of challenges, FP’s Jack Detsch [reports](. Russia’s defenses are some of the most extensive in the world and extend far beyond the front lines. The United States, Ukraine’s biggest supplier of military aid, is mostly tapped out on money and guns. And, at some point, the Ukrainians are going to hit a point where they have to commit to breaching Russian lines, not just probing them. Still, Detsch notes, Russia faces even worse problems—and the outcome or resolution of fighting remains as uncertain as ever. On Monday, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi died at the age of 86. Berlusconi “was always working the crowd in a desperate search for approval,” [writes]( Rome-based journalist Barbie Latza Nadeau, but he hated comparisons to the similarly styled Donald Trump and had an impressive grasp on geopolitics. Nonetheless, his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin proved both difficult and damaging. The two often shared holiday homes in Sardinia, which may be why it took Berlusconi more than a month to condemn his friend after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.—The Editors   New and Noteworthy - Wrestling With Hiroshima and Nagasaki: When U.S. President Joe Biden traveled to Hiroshima last month for a G-7 meeting, he said nothing about the atomic bomb. He did not meet with bomb survivors as planned and did not deliver remarks when visiting that city’s peace memorial. It’s time for a moral awakening on the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, [writes]( Adam Mount, the director of the Defense Posture Project at the Federation of American Scientists. In a dueling perspective, historian and author Evan Thomas [argues]( that the historical record is clear: Dropping atomic bombs was the least bad option. - Is There Really a Cold War 2.0?: Even as U.S.-China relations have frayed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has remained adamant that Washington is “determined to avoid” a cold war with Beijing. In the [latest edition]( of Flash Points, we explore the utility of the “cold war” framing and whether it’s a helpful—or harmful—way to think about Beijing and Washington’s relationship today. - The Greatest Movie Epic You’ve Never Heard of: A classic of Tamil literature has become a stunning pair of films. Saleha Salam’s [review]( of an upcoming film adaptation of the Tamil novel Ponniyin Selvan highlights the immense anticipation surrounding the project due to the popularity of the novel and the talented director, Mani Ratnam, at its helm. The film is expected to have a significant cultural impact and, Salam writes, showcases the richness of Indian cinema on a global scale.   FP Live Inside the U.S.-China Tech WarJune 20, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDTWhere is the new tech war between the United States and China headed? How are other countries being impacted as a result? In what ways are they reassessing their relationships with the world’s largest economic superpowers? Join technology expert Dan Wang for a discussion about China’s technological rise and whether U.S. actions can really stop it. [Register here](. Subscriber Exclusive: Is America Making a Bad Bet on India?June 21, 2023 | 11 a.m. EDT | On-DemandFor decades, the U.S. foreign-policy establishment has assumed that India could serve as a partner as the United States jostles with China for power in the Indo-Pacific region. But Ashley J. Tellis, a longtime watcher of U.S.-India relations, says Washington’s expectations of New Delhi are misplaced. Send in your questions for an in-depth discussion with Tellis ahead of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the White House. [Submit your questions here](.   Exercise Your Mind Which Pacific island nation indicated last week that it was reconsidering its security ties with China? - Fiji - Solomon Islands - Nauru - Tonga You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. [Click here]( to take the rest of our weekly news quiz   Get the daily magazine for people interested in the world. [Subscribe today](.   Dispatch: Is Nepal Ready for Marriage Equality? KATHMANDU, Nepal—After years of hiding their relationship, Jeshika Gautam and Samjhana Bishwakarma now openly live together as a lesbian couple in Nepal’s capital, Kathmandu. Despite familial disapproval, the pair, both in their 20s, say the gradual shift in social attitudes and the country’s progressive LGBTQ laws encouraged them to declare their love publicly. Now, after dating for five years, they’re ready to marry. But Nepal has yet to recognize same-sex marriage, 15 years after the country’s Supreme Court granted equal rights as other citizens to people of sexual minorities and ordered the government to form a study committee on marriage equality. Now, a petition at the court is demanding marriage equality by challenging the country’s 2017 Civil Code, which defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. Petitioners are asking for an amendment saying marriage should occur between two individuals of undefined gender, which would pave the way for same-sex unions. The hearing for the case, initiated by Mitini Nepal—a nonprofit working for the rights of the lesbian, bisexual, and transgender community—alongside its president, executive director, and others, was scheduled for Wednesday, May 31. But it has now been postponed to Nov. 8. “It’s been a long battle,” Gautam told Foreign Policy. “We want the same rights and equality as other couples. We want to get married.” Read the full article in [Foreign Policy](.   Most Popular on FP [This photo taken on March 7 shows a cargo ship powered by LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) loaded with containers at a port in Qingdao, in China's eastern Shandong province. ]( [China’s Big Gas Bet Raises Questions About Complicity With Russia]( Chinese-linked firms went on a spree of deals in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. By Steven R. Miles, Gabriel B. Collins [Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaks during a press conference following the launch of new legislation on migrant channel crossings at Downing Street on March 7, 2023 in London. ]( [Rishi Sunak’s Government Is Anti-Asylum]( The British prime minister is pushing a new law that would effectively make it impossible to protect refugees. By Anchal Vohra [Two Airbus A400M military aircrafts with the German Bundeswehr approach during NATO’s 2023 Air Defender exercise at a military air base in Wunstorf, northern Germany, on June 12.]( [NATO Begins Largest Air Force Drills in Its History]( The training exercise is meant to demonstrate the alliance’s capabilities and solidarity against Russia. 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Collins [Rishi Sunak’s Government Is Anti-Asylum](The British prime minister is pushing a new law that would effectively make it impossible to protect refugees. By Anchal Vohra [NATO Begins Largest Air Force Drills in Its History](The training exercise is meant to demonstrate the alliance’s capabilities and solidarity against Russia. By Alexandra Sharp [Saudi-Iranian Rapprochement Has Failed to Bring De-escalation](From Syria to Israel’s borders to the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian de-escalation is nowhere to be found. By Steven A. Cook [The New Washington Consensus on Trade Is Wrong](Protectionism will drag everyone down in the end. By James C. Capretta, Stan Veuger   From Around FP - The Triple Inequality: The impacts of the global climate crisis are being felt most by those who have least contributed to it and are least able to pay. Adam Tooze explores the inequality that defines the crisis in this week’s [Chartbook](. - Global Health Forum 2023: Join FP as we convene global health experts, policymakers, and business leaders to discuss strategies to address today’s most urgent global health threats. [Register here](. June 13, 2023 | In-Person & Virtual | Washington, D.C. - Tension Beyond the Strait: Join FP and the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies as we dive into the debate on U.S. economic pressure tactics against China, Europe’s intertwined interests, and the impact of French President Emmanuel Macron’s “sovereign Europe” stance on trans-Atlantic alliances. [Register here](. June 21, 2023 | Virtual Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: 1.) Fiji. Though China has made some gains in the Pacific, its grossly bungled diplomacy has ensured that the United States will not lose its regional allies anytime soon, Derek Grossman [writes](. Give your team a global perspective [One FP group subscription can help your organization navigate an ever-changing world—and make smarter decisions along the way.]( [LEARN MORE](   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( You’re receiving this email at {EMAIL} because you signed up for the FP This Week newsletter. [MANAGE YOUR EMAIL PREFERENCES]( | [VIEW OUR PRIVACY POLICY]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Reach the [right online audience]( with us. [Foreign Policy]( is a division of Graham Holdings Company. All contents © 2023 Graham Digital Holding Company LLC. All rights reserved. Foreign Policy, 655 15th St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC, 20005.