FP This Week: A Cold Relationship Gets Frostier

Read the latest China policy news and analysis. [Foreign Policy This Week]( February 06, 2023 | [View in browser]( To access all the benefits of an FP subscription, [sign in]( or [subscribe](. Thanks for reading. A U.S. fighter jet [shot down]( a suspected Chinese spy balloon on Saturday, prompting Beijing’s “strong discontent and protest.” As the drama played out last week, FP’s James Palmer covered the [diplomatic ramifications]( of the balloon’s discovery in his weekly China Brief. On Friday, as the fast-moving story gathered pace and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken canceled his visit to China, Palmer [added]( that the incident was “confirmation that we’re in the early days of Cold War 2.0.” Amid a growing bipartisan hawkishness on Beijing, FP’s Rishi Iyengar reports on an executive order that would put in place [more stringent rules on U.S. companies]( looking to invest in China’s technology sector. And FP’s newest columnist Zongyuan Zoe Liu explains why government stimulus and greater exports [can’t dig China’s economy out of a deep hole]( Neil Thomas, a senior China analyst at Eurasia Group, [argues]( that Chinese President Xi Jinping wants his country to “lead the world in comprehensive national power and international influence.” FP subscriber FORRESTJ pushes back on [Thomas’s perspective]( in the comments section, noting how “the ‘all under heaven’ (天下) view of Chinese dominance collides with the realities of global interdependence, and leads to diplomatic isolation.” Want to know how last week’s news could impact the U.S.-China relationship? Join us on Friday at 11 a.m. EST for our latest FP Live discussion featuring Palmer and Georgetown University’s Emily S. Weinstein. Subscribers can send in questions [here](. Stay on top of all of FP’s reporting and analysis from the world’s biggest country in the [mobile app]( where you can configure a unique My FP feed based on your interests and opt into [email]( and push notifications.—The Editors --------------------------------------------------------------- New and Noteworthy - The Munich Security Conference: As Russia’s war in Ukraine reaches an inflection point, our reporters will be in the rooms where decisions are made, bringing you breaking news and insider scoops from the Munich Security Conference. FP’s [national security newsletter]( SitRep is headed to Germany on Feb. 16-19 to give you a behind-the-scenes look. [Sign up]( to receive exclusive daily reports from Munich directly to your inbox. - A Complicated Legacy: Gen. Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s former president, died at age 79 in Dubai. Mosharraf Zaidi’s [obituary]( details a charismatic Pakistani general who shredded the constitution and recklessly obeyed Washington’s commands. - Biden’s Foreign-Policy Report Card: FP’s Ravi Agrawal was joined by Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Nadia Schadlow, a deputy national security advisor under former U.S. President Donald Trump, to discuss the Biden administration’s foreign-policy successes and failures. The [FP Live]( is available for on-demand viewing and as a [condensed transcript](. --------------------------------------------------------------- FP Live The Balloon and the U.S.-China Relationship Feb. 10, 2023 | 11 a.m. EST The very public spat over alleged spying is just the most recent example of strains in the world’s most important relationship. Beyond the kerfuffle over the balloon, what are the broader impacts on Washington’s China policy? Join FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a discussion with Emily S. Weinstein, a research fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, and James Palmer, a deputy editor at Foreign Policy and the author of FP’s weekly [China Brief]( newsletter. [Register here.]( Israel’s Democratic Decline Feb. 13, 2023 | 11 a.m. EST Join FP’s Dan Ephron in conversation with Amir Tibon, a senior editor and writer at Israel’s Haaretz newspaper. They’ll discuss Israel’s new far-right government, its plans to overhaul and weaken the judiciary, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial, and U.S. policy on Israel under President Joe Biden. [Register here.]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Exercise Your Mind A lawyer for Jair Bolsonaro confirmed last week that the former Brazilian president has applied for what kind of U.S. visa? - A diplomatic visa - A tourist visa - An immigration visa - An asylum visa You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. [Click here]( to take the rest of our weekly news quiz. FP subscribers can [sign up]( to be notified when new editions are available. --------------------------------------------------------------- Is Cold War Inevitable? A new biography of George Kennan, the father of containment, raises questions about whether the old Cold War—and the emerging one with China—could have been avoided. Even at the advanced age of 94, George Kennan was still arguing that the Cold War hadn’t been inevitable—that it could have been avoided or, at least, ameliorated. A decade after that 44-year conflict ended, Kennan, the somewhat dovish father of the United States’ Cold War containment strategy, contended in a letter to his more hawkish biographer, John Lewis Gaddis, that while Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin was alive, an early way out might have been possible. The so-called Stalin Note from March 1952—an offer from Moscow to hold talks over the shape of post-World War II Europe—showed that the United States had ignored the possibilities of peace accomplished through “negotiation, and especially real negotiation, in distinction from public posturing (italics original),” Kennan wrote in 1999. Those words still resonate today. Because public posturing is mostly what we’re seeing as the United States finds itself spiraling toward a new kind of cold war with both China and Russia. Yet almost no debate or discussion about these policies is taking place in Washington. [Continue reading on Foreign Policy](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Most Popular on FP - [Xi Jinping’s Power Grab Is Paying Off]( by Neil Thomas - [Britain Is Much Worse Off Than It Understands]( by Simon Tilford - [NATO Must Stand Up to Turkey’s Blackmail]( by James Siebens - [Christian Nationalism Is Tearing Ethiopia Apart]( by Andrew DeCort - [Pervez Musharraf Dragged His Country Down]( by Mosharraf Zaidi --------------------------------------------------------------- From Around FP - FP Live, Audio Edition: Looking for an easy way to catch up on missed FP Live interviews? Introducing the Foreign Policy Live podcast—your weekly fix for smart thinking about the world. Every week, host and FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal will be joined by leading foreign-policy thinkers and practitioners to analyze a key issue in global politics, from the U.S.-China relationship to conflict and diplomacy. Follow the podcast on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you listen. - Strategies for Defending Democracy: In an extraordinary reversal of democracy trends, the world is back to [1989 levels of liberal democracy](, with 33 countries now actively backsliding and authoritarian influences taking root. How can we stem this decline and ensure democracy’s future? Join FP in partnership with the International Foundation for Electoral Systems as we convene experts and leaders across civil society, policymaking, and media to address this urgent crisis. Feb. 9, 2023 | 11 a.m. EST | [Register here.]( Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities]( Answer: 2.) A tourist visa. Bolsonaro has been holed up in Florida since late last year. He is facing scrutiny at home in Brazil, where the new government is investigating the Jan. 8 insurrection on Brasília, Oliver Stuenkel [writes]( Photo: Larry Mayer/The Billings Gazette via AP --------------------------------------------------------------- [Live from the Munich Security Conference:]( Look out for special editions of FP's national security newsletter Feb. 16-19 as Situation Report heads to Germany to bring you insider scoops and breaking news from MSC. [Sign up for Situation Report.]( FOLLOW FP ON This email was sent to {EMAIL} because you are subscribed to the FP This Week newsletter. Want a friend to receive this newsletter? [Forward it]( now. Want to receive other FP newsletters? [Manage]( your FP newsletter preferences. [unsubscribe]( | [privacy policy]( | [contact us]( | [partner with FP]( Foreign Policy magazine is a division of Graham Holdings Company. All contents © 2023 The Slate Group, LLC. All rights reserved. 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