FP This Week: A debate on sanctions against Russia

Plus, decoding Thai political humor [Foreign Policy This Week]( August 22, 2022 | [View in browser]( To access all the benefits of an FP subscription, [sign in]( or [subscribe](. Thanks for reading. In December 2021, U.S. President Joe Biden warned of “devastating consequences” on the Russian economy should Russian President Vladimir Putin invade Ukraine. Six months into the war, which is now in its third phase, have Western sanctions on Russia worked? Substantive debate is at the heart of Foreign Policy’s editorial mission, and that’s why we are proud to publish two contrasting perspectives, both from experts, on this complicated question. In “[Who’s Winning the Sanctions War?]( Duke University professor Bruce W. Jentleson determines that while Russia’s “economic-military pincer” has been squeezed tighter as a result of sweeping measures by the United States and its allies, “there should be no expectation of Putin saying uncle.” To support this, Jentleson draws on examples from recent history where economic impacts have not been converted into policy compliance. For another viewpoint, Yale University’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian outline [three steps]( for exerting maximum pressure on Putin. These co-writers find evidence for the Russian economy “under serious strain,” and they argue that the idea “that economic pressure cannot change or even end authoritarian regimes is a contention simply not supported” by precedent. You can join in the civil and respectful debate in the comments section under both articles, available only to subscribers. Plus: Don’t miss our latest [Decoder](. Decoder is FP’s award-winning series of stories tackling words in other languages that, at first glance, seem untranslatable. Jasmine Chia, a Thai political analyst, unpacks kuan teen, which describes both a style of humor and a growing movement among Thai youth looking to express their outrage at what they see as an outmoded political machine. You can read other Decoders—including on words that reveal how to get what you want in Ghana and the German concept of courage—[here](. Image credit: Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP via Getty Images --------------------------------------------------------------- New and Noteworthy - Information Warfare in Russia’s War in Ukraine: The effectiveness of governments’ efforts globally to curb access to social media and prevent disinformation, both in Russia’s war and overall, has been limited thus far. Regulatory efforts have neither curbed disinformation in robust and systematic ways nor reigned in the role of social media platforms as domains of political polarization and vitriolic social interactions. FP Analytics’ [Issue Brief]( examines the role of social media and artificial intelligence in shaping global narratives. - What Does China Want?: The greatest geopolitical catastrophes occur at the intersection of ambition and desperation. China will soon be driven by plenty of both. [Read an excerpt]( from FP contributors Hal Brands and Michael Beckley’s new book, Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, where they explain the cause of that desperation: a slowing economy and a creeping sense of encirclement and decline. - Human Rights Are in Decline Around the World: In large parts of the world, economic and technological progress has made people’s lives significantly better over the past few decades. But even as humanity has achieved so much, human rights have regressed in many countries—including some of the wealthier ones. Why is that, and what can people do about it? In the latest episode of [Global Reboot]( the former United Nations commissioner on human rights, Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein, answers those questions. - Q&A with Anthony Fauci: Today, Dr. Anthony Fauci announced that he will step down from his post as the United States’ infectious disease chief in December. Revisit FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal’s [wide-ranging FP Live interview]( with Fauci from earlier this year, where he publicly criticized China’s response to COVID-19 for the first time and addressed the challenges that remain ahead for the United States. --------------------------------------------------------------- Best of the Briefings: South Asia Brief The highlights last week: assessing the Taliban regime one year after they took over Kabul, why India’s response to the attack on Mumbai-born author Salman Rushdie is muted, and a Chinese ship docks in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota International Port. Read an excerpt from the [most recent edition]( of South Asia Brief below: One year since the Taliban took over Afghanistan, they still hold a firm grip on power; they control most of the country and face no viable opposition. The war that ended when the Taliban entered Kabul last year has not resumed. However, that the group remains in full control is surprising: Its regime has faced immense challenges, including struggles for legitimacy and internal divides. The Taliban’s hold on power could still become shaky in the next year. On Sunday, Al Jazeera published an interview with Taliban leader Anas Haqqani about the last year. He repeated the narrative that has dominated the group’s public messaging since its takeover: that the Taliban ended the foreign occupation of Afghanistan and restored peace. However, Haqqani responded to inconvenient questions—such as those about Afghanistan’s economic crisis or the U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul—with characteristic defiance. [Continue reading]( this brief online, and [sign up]( to get it weekly. Image credit: Nava Jamshidi via Getty Images --------------------------------------------------------------- Subscriber Exclusive: The Case for U.S. Restraint in Ukraine and Taiwan Aug. 24 | 12 p.m. EDT Exactly a year after the United States withdrew its forces from Afghanistan—ending its longest war—Washington is once again playing an important role in two major arenas. The first is in Ukraine, where continued U.S. military support maintains Kyiv’s chances of repelling Moscow’s advances. The second is more of a cold war, in which the United States is increasingly focused on containing China’s rise and influence. How should America conduct its foreign policy in this new environment? The classic debate in international relations tends to pit hawks against doves—in other words, a [debate]( over whether to conduct a more muscular and proactive policy or a more restrained one that shuns long-term entanglements. FP editor in chief Ravi Agrawal spoke with historian Stephen Wertheim, who makes the case for U.S. restraint. Wertheim is the author of [Tomorrow, the World: The Birth of U.S. Global Supremacy](. This interview is available on demand to FP subscribers only. [Become a subscriber today]( to access this on-demand interview, plus unlimited news and analysis from Foreign Policy. --------------------------------------------------------------- Most Popular on FP - “[Why Quantum Computing Is Even More Dangerous Than Artificial Intelligence]( by Vivek Wadhwa and Mauritz Kop - “[One Year Later, Afghanistan Is a Land of Shrugs and Sadness]( by Stefanie Glinski - “[Who’s Winning the Sanctions War?]( by Bruce W. Jentleson - “[Is China Declining?]( by FP Contributors - “[Stop Funding Sisi’s House of Cards]( by Steven A. 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