Is America in Denial About NATO’s Future?

Perspectives on this week’s summit. JULY 9, 2024  |  [VIEW IN BROWSER](  |  [SUBSCRIBE](     U.S. President Joe Biden attends the opening session of the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11, 2023. Sean Gallup/Getty Images This week’s NATO summit in Washington, D.C., is a do-or-die moment for many of its participants. Beleaguered U.S. President Joe Biden must surely hope that the statesmanship of it all will reverse his political fortunes; former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul wrote recently in Foreign Policy that NATO’s powerful resurgence since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is Biden’s “[signature achievement](.” The gathering also represents a crucial juncture for Ukraine, which—in its third year of war—needs a ramping-up of support from the alliance at a time when member states such as France are growing more divided on the issue. Former Assistant Secretary of State David J. Kramer and former Ambassadors to Ukraine John Herbst and William Taylor write that this may be the [last NATO summit]( on the Biden administration’s watch. They argue that member states must therefore “seize the moment and recognize that progress on Ukraine’s membership in NATO may get derailed if there is a change in the White House.” Not so fast, writes Daniel Treisman of the University of California, Los Angeles, in his argument “[America Is in Denial About NATO’s Future](.” Having prematurely promised NATO membership to Kyiv in 2008, the West cannot safely retract its pledge, Treisman writes. “But on this point, Biden may be right to delay” the promise—because, Treisman argues, an alliance that includes Ukraine will require a vastly larger military and economic commitment. Naturally, we at FP are closely tracking the election upsets in Iran and France over the past few days, and we’ll have analysis on these surprising results for you in the coming days. The U.K. election—and the ascension of the Labour Party’s Keir Starmer to prime minister after 14 years of Conservative Party rule—may not have been unexpected, but it is momentous, according to former parliamentary advisor Mike Harris. In “[What a U.K. Labour Win Means for the Global Left](,” Harris writes that Starmer’s victory recasts “how progressives can win national elections and set a high-water mark for what social democrats can achieve.” (A particularly fascinating observation is that part of Starmer’s success has been to take an oath of omertà on culture war issues.) No doubt Team Biden is taking notes.—Amelia Lester P.S. Released last week, “[Europe Alone](” is FP’s newest print issue and features 10 expert opinions on a Europe without America’s embrace. [Secure your own copy]( when you sign up for an annual plan and opt in to home delivery before Friday, July 12, or [unlock full digital access]( to the issue for only $60 $20 if you're a new subscriber.   New and Noteworthy - Britain’s China Policy: As Starmer steps up as Britain’s new prime minister, James Crabtree argues for a “more sensible strategy” to [reshape the country’s relationship]( with China ahead of the Labour Party’s planned “audit,” which would enable a reevaluation of Britain’s economic and geopolitical strategy toward the country. - BRICS Expansion: In a world in which “the future of the global order is highly uncertain,” Sarang Shidore argues that recent moves to [expand Southeast Asia’s presence in the BRICS]( grouping “is a win for the logic of multi-alignment, rather than bloc-building.” - America’s First Diplomat: While geopolitical tensions continue to rise, Eric Weiner explains why one historical figure can serve as a point of inspiration for navigating today’s diplomatic labyrinth: [Benjamin Franklin](.   Insightful. In-depth. Indispensable. [See what FP has to offer for yourself.](   [FP Live]( [How to Defend Europe]( On Demand | 11 a.m. ETToday marks the start of the 75th NATO summit. One of the contributors to FP’s latest issue, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, joined FP Live to discuss the war in Ukraine, the future of Europe, and a question at the core of Foreign Policy’s [summer print issue](: Can Europe fend for itself? [Watch]( the conversation now, or [read]( the edited transcript. [How Platon Photographs Power]( On Demand July 24 | 11 a.m. ETWhether you know it or not, you’ve seen the work of portrait photographer Platon. Gracing magazine covers and protest signs, his photos of world leaders and cultural icons capture the truth behind the cliche that “a picture is worth a thousand words.” Platon will sit down with FP’s Ravi Agrawal to describe what drives his art and how he connects with his subjects, no matter how powerful they may be. Look out for the [on-demand conversation]( on July 24. This event is not subscriber-exclusive.   Exercise Your Mind About how many seats in the House of Commons did the Labour Party win in the United Kingdom’s general election on July 4? A. 252 B. 360 C. 411 D. 505 You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.   [SitRep x NATO’s 75th]( For NATO’s historic 75th anniversary summit, world leaders have descended on Washington, D.C., to celebrate the alliance’s history and discuss its future amid a complex geopolitical landscape. From July 9-11, get exclusive insights and on-the-ground coverage from the summit with a special edition of [Situation Report](, FP’s weekly newsletter on national security, defense, and cybersecurity news. [SIGN UP FOR FREE](   [Reads for a busy election year]( [Labour leader and incoming Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his wife, Victoria, greet supporters as they enter No. 10 Downing St. in London on July 5 following Labour’s landslide election victory.]( [Labour Wins Landslide Victory in U.K. Snap Elections]( Keir Starmer promises to focus on public service as Britain’s new prime minister. By Alexandra Sharp [Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at a rally in Chesapeake, Virginia, on June 28.]( [Trump’s Plan to Weaken the Dollar Makes No Sense]( The policy would directly counter the one thing he claims to be fighting against. By Keith Johnson [An older woman prepares to vote in the Mongolian parliamentary elections at a polling station in Mongolia's Tuv province on June 28. ]( [Mongolia Is Walking a Fragile Democratic Path]( With Russia on one side and China on the other, elections are a symbol of defiance. By Alex Chen, Azeem Ibrahim [U.S. President Joe Biden takes a look at his notes during the first presidential debate of the 2024 election campaign in Atlanta on June 27. ]( [Biden’s Debate Performance Has Some U.S. Allies Worried]( The U.S. president’s lackluster performance was a wake-up call about the prospects of a second Trump term. By Jack Detsch, Rishi Iyengar [Labour Wins Landslide Victory in U.K. Snap Elections]( Keir Starmer promises to focus on public service as Britain’s new prime minister. By Alexandra Sharp [Trump’s Plan to Weaken the Dollar Makes No Sense](The policy would directly counter the one thing he claims to be fighting against. By Keith Johnson [Mongolia Is Walking a Fragile Democratic Path](With Russia on one side and China on the other, elections are a symbol of defiance. By Alex Chen, Azeem Ibrahim [Biden’s Debate Performance Has Some U.S. Allies Worried](The U.S. president’s lackluster performance was a wake-up call about the prospects of a second Trump term. By Jack Detsch, Rishi Iyengar   From Around FP - State of Seed: On [State of Seed](, you’ll find out how seeds feed and sustain the planet. Launching July 12, host Laura Rosbrow-Telem talks to the innovative players advancing this vital resource, including leaders of multinational companies and NGOs, U.N. and government officials, and—of course—farmers. Listen to the trailer and subscribe on [Apple](, [Spotify](, or wherever you get your podcasts. Brought to you by the International Seed Federation, with production services from FP Studios. - From FP Analytics: Learn about the dangerous implications of [artificial intelligence in cyberattacks](—and how to properly defend against them—with a new issue brief from FP Analytics, FP’s independent research and advisory division. Also, explore detailed maps and visualizations that break down how [middle powers in the Indo-Pacific region]( are responding to rising pressures from China and the United States. - You spoke, we listened: Last year, we asked FP subscribers what they wanted to see next. Informed by more than 600 responses, our team has implemented various changes that boost FP’s journalism and better serve our readers. Subscribers can find links to gift paywall-free articles or download PDFs for easy sharing, plus enjoy a new and improved search functionality and more fresh features on [ForeignPolicy.com](.   Are you interested in learning more about FP Analytics’ cutting-edge research services, hosting an FP Virtual Dialogue event, or building a podcast with FP Studios? [Explore partnership opportunities](. Answer: C. 411. Labour leader Keir Starmer is not nearly as popular as the results suggest, but Britons’ low expectations for the incoming government could lead many of them to be pleasantly surprised by what it accomplishes, John Kampfner [argues](. [Subscribe to Foreign Policy]( [Join the FP network]( [Foreign Policy is a forum where global thinkers unite, learn, and interact. Connect with other readers for just $60 $20 if you're a first-time subscriber.]( [SUBSCRIBE NOW](   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( You’re receiving this email at {EMAIL} because you signed up for FP's This Week newsletter. [MANAGE YOUR EMAIL PREFERENCES]( | [VIEW OUR PRIVACY POLICY]( | [UNSUBSCRIBE]( Interested in partnering with FP on events, podcasts, or research? [Explore FP Solutions](. [Foreign Policy]( is a division of Graham Holdings Company. All contents © 2023 Graham Digital Holding Company LLC. All rights reserved. Foreign Policy, 655 15th St NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC, 20005.